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Old 06-07-2012, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,795,417 times
Reputation: 6636

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Tried to get rid of that other thread as I had an error in my BABIP calculation. It didn't make much of a difference, but it was annoying me, and inaccurate.

So, again, my projections for a few players based on walk & strike out rates and batted ball rates.






The numbers highlighted in yellow are my projections for the rest of the season (top) and end of season (bottom). The numbers in orange are the players' stats as of the date of the projection.
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Old 07-02-2012, 03:39 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,795,417 times
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Well, we're roughly halfway through the season. How are the projections looking?



I'll run through each player quickly

Matt Kemp
Through the first quarter, Kemp was the best player in baseball. Kemp actually is one of the best players in baseball, but no way could he hit for a full season like he had been. Unfortunately, Kemp has only played in 2 games the second quarter due to a couple of hamstring injuries

Andre Ethier
He's known as a fast starter, and that was true again this year. He's been about as cold in the 2nd quarter as he was in the first. His season numbers so far, are about what we'd expect for a full season (.360/.490 OBP/SLG). Hopefully, he'll even out his performance in the 2nd half.

Dee Gordon
He was so bad in the first quarter that I wasn't sure he'd hold down a major league job. He's hit a bit better in the 2nd quarter than what I'd projected for him. I'm still not totally convinced that Dee is a major league starter.

AJ Ellis
Was one of the first quarter's biggest surprises. Ellis has derived most of his offense from the walk. That strategy rarely works in the majors as pitchers will just throw strikes down the middle if you can't drive them. Ellis was able to continue to walk, and hit for a bit of power as well. He was really hot to start the season, and in the second quarter has settled in as almost exactly the type of hitter we'd expect. His .375/.344 OBP and SLG are very close to the .374/.361 that I projected.

Derek Jeter
Old Man Jetes continues to make Yankee fans swoon. His hot start this season was unexpected when looking at his recent performance. His 2nd quarter performance has been even worse than the regression that we would have expected.

Austin Jackson
A-Jax is an interesting player. I've gotten to know his statistical profile pretty well in his 2+ seasons in the league. He surprised me (and most people) by hammering the ball to start 2012. I didn't think there was any way that that would continue but he has been able to hitting about .400/.500 in the 2nd quarter compared to the .340/.420 I expected.

Melky Cabrera
Melky is another player who's gotten a ton of attention. Something has been doing Melky good since he arrived in San Fran. He started off 2012 on fire and has been able to keep it up despite batted ball rates that are even worse than the regression that I expected. Melky's BABIP is over .400 so the milk has to spoil some time, right?

Jose Bautista
Came out of nowhere to become baseball's best slugger. He started of 2012 terribly. This was mostly due to a low BABIP (.186 in the first quarter) as he was still hitting for power. I projected Bautista to be the best hitter in baseball over the rest of the season. Well, he's been that and more hitting .397/.680 in the last month and a half, even better (much better!) than the .397/.559 that I projected.

Josh Hamilton
Was the best hitter in baseball's first quarter. His .430/.760 line was outstanding, and totally unsustainable (unless you're name is Jose Bautista). I expected Hamilton to drop off to .360/.570 for the rest of the season. He's been worse than that in the second quarter. Hitting just .326/.512. An increase in strikeouts leads one to believe that something is out of wack.

Bryan LaHair
Another news maker from baseball's first 6 weeks. The long-time minor league slugger grabbed his MLB opportunity and ran with it. Looking like a HoFer with a .400/.610 line that put him in company with Hamilton, Bautista and Kemp. I certainly didn't think he'd continue to hit like that. He hasn't. He's been terrible since hitting just .290/.390. More like a SS than a slugging 1B man. He's striking out, not walking, and the power is gone. Only a .400 BABIP has kept his 2nd quarter from being a total disaster.

And think, he's had 2700 AAA at bats to learn how to make adjustments against minor league pitchers.

Adam Jones
Another first quarter Hall of Fame candidate. People put Jones' name along with the elite players in the league after he stormed out of the gate with a .350/.600 line. I projected him for .320/.500 the rest of the way. He's hit .330/.490.

Albert Pujols
People wanted to bench Pujols after he had a homerless April. In the first quarter he hit just .250/.320. That's not even James Loney territory. After a down 2011 there was talk that Albert might be finished and the Angels would be stuck paying him $200+ million to hit like a backup catcher. I even bought into the decline projecting Albert for a .340/.500 line the rest of the way. That was stupid. Currently, Albert is hitting .330/.460. But since I made these projections in May Albert is hitting .420/.640; aka vintage Albert Pujols. The BABIP is over .400 in that time, so expect those numbers to back down a bit, but reports of Albert's demise were surely exagerated.

Jimmy Rollins
Along with the injuries to Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay Rollins' play in the first quarter was given as an "I-told-you-so" by all the Phillies haters. Well, the Phillies still suck but you can't blame Rollins. In the 2nd quarter Rollins is hitting like he did in his prime-.340/.550. I knew he wasn't done, but this performance seems a bit over the top.
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Old 07-02-2012, 04:10 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Jose Reyes
Monster season last year led the Marlins to take a chance on him. He was terrible through the first quarter. Players don't typically drop off like that so it was easy to say that he'd bounce back. I projected him for .350/.440 the rest of the season. In the 2nd quarter Reyes is hitting .360.440

David Wright
Reyes' brotha-from-anotha-motha for many years with the Mets, Wright blew up at the beginning of 2012. Everyone knew the .470 BABIP was not likely to continue. I put Wright down for .350/.450 for the rest of the season. About what he'd hit the last 2 season. Wright has come back to earth, but is still hitting .380/.500 since mid May.

Josh Reddick
Another out of nowhere layer in early 2012. Reddick somehow doubled his HR/FB rate by moving from Fenway to Oakland. That seemed odd and I projected him to return to his normal rates. He hasn't. He continues to hit twice as many HR's as he did in Boston and put up an excellent batting line.

Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas
Will forever be linked in my mind as the first wave of Royals uber-prospects. They started off 2012 on opposite ends though. Hosmer's .170 BABIP through mid-May pulled down his over all batting line. Meanwhile, Moustakas BABIP was .320. Factoring that luck out led me to project Hosmer for .340/.500 and Moustakas for .300/.450. Neither player has hit for the power that I projected but the OBPs are close. I still expect the power to come around.

Bobby Abreu
I projected because I wanted to see just how bad he'd be after Ned signed him. Abreu's skills are obviously in decline, so his .350/.430 start to the season looked unsustainable. I thought he'd go for something like .330/.370. He hasn't even been able to hit that recently. Only .350/.300 since I looked last time. That's not a starting OFer in the majors.

Yonder Alonso
I have long wished the Dodgers would acquire Alonso to take over for Loney at first base. Through the first quarter Alonso hit .350/.480. There was a .360 BABIP attached to that so I knew it wouldn't last but the .320/.420 line I projected him for looked reasonable for a rookie hitter in San Diego. Alonso is only hitting .270/.260 since however (Loney's hitting .250/.230). Some of it is BABIP (.260), but he's not playing well.

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout
Should be fun to watch these two for the next 20 years.

Both of them got off to amazing starts. Harper got most of the ink, but Trout was even better, much better. Both guys were expected to cool off a bit in baseball's 2nd quarter and I expected both to hit somewhere along the lines of .320/.410. They've both obliterated that projection. Harper is at .350/.490 and Trout an even better .380/.490. Both guys' BABIPs are close to .400 so I expect them to return, if not to earth, at least to earth orbit in baseball's second half.

Mark Trumbo
Dude hit ball far. Trumbo has massive power and hit .320/.590 at the beginning of the season. He was also helped by a .400 BABIP. I expected that to fall, cutting his OBP to something like .300. His BABIP has dropped, but only to .340 which leaves him with a .330 OBP. He's been able to increase his power though and his .330/.630 line in the second quarter is much better than I gave him credit for. I still think the OBP will come down, but his power looks legit.

Elian Herrera
Another guy I looked at just because he plays for the Dodgers. I expected him to mostly ride the pine and play late inning defense when he came up to replace Matt Kemp. He sparked the Dodgers he sparked LA in his first few starts and continued to get playing time. I knew this was bad, because Herrera isn't a good player. Since his initial outburst he's just hitting .330/.330 which is bad enough but that falls to .300/.310 in June. I had him down for .280/.280. We need to get him out of the lineup before he does more damage.

Matt Carpenter
Was caught up in the Cardinals' hitting machine in the early part of the season. Everyone in the lineup was crushing the ball. Carpenter is not a good hitter though. He can get on base, but doesn't have enough power to be a first baseman. Carpenter went on the DL right after I made the projection and was just activated. He's hitting .320/.450 since then which is still much better than the .340/.390 I projected for him. People will point to his DL trip when looking at his 2nd half decline, but that won't really be the reason.
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Old 07-02-2012, 04:11 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,795,417 times
Reputation: 6636
I'm going to look closer at these players and see if I need to adjust my projections now that I have more information.

If anyone wants to see any other players projected let me know and I may do them if I have time and find them interesting.
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Old 07-02-2012, 07:19 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,958 posts, read 18,569,815 times
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Absorbing report, filihok, thanks for going to this trouble.

I'd be interested in your projections for ....

Carlos Ruiz

Prince Fielder

Angel Pagan

A.J. Pierzynski
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Old 07-02-2012, 08:04 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,795,417 times
Reputation: 6636
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Carlos Ruiz
Ruiz has been a bit BABIP lucky this year at .371. He's hitting a high amount of line drives but he still has an expected BABIP of around .330. That should cool off as we go forward. Besides that he's had a big change in walk rate and HR/FB. It's hard to know if those things are real so we have to regress them back towads his recent averages.

Doing so gives me .375/.432 the rest of the way
528 PA, 462 AB, 149 H, 34 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 43 BB, 61 K, and a .398/.506 SLG

Quote:
Prince Fielder
He's hitting well so far. Not many people will complain about a .370/.490 line, but that is a drop off from what we expect the Prince to hit. Comerica Park does depress left-handed home runs slight as compared to Miller Stadium, so Fielder may hit a few less home runs. I still expect him to get going a little bit and hit: .400/.510 the rest of the way. That'll give him
701 PA, 594 AB, 172 H, 34 2B, 1 3B, 29 HR, 86 BB, 102 K's, a .388 OBP and .498 SLG to end the season.



Quote:
Angel Pagan
Pagan is a very consistent hitter. His rates over the last few seasons have hardly changed at all. He's doing what he does. His career averages are .333/.418 and right now he's hitting .341/.416. Expect that to continue.

Quote:
A.J. Pierzynski
Eye Chart is similar to Ruiz in that his HR/FB rate has about tripled this year compared to what we'd expect. I don't expect that rate to continue so I get him hitting .330/.440 the rest of the way leaving him with an end of season line of:
548 PA, 507 AB, 147 H, 23 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 29 BB, 55K, and a .330/.476 line.
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Old 07-02-2012, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,958 posts, read 18,569,815 times
Reputation: 18673
My thanks.
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