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Old 06-20-2012, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,790,963 times
Reputation: 6636

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I've already shown that there's not much evidence of Lowe's decline in the 2nd half of 2012.

There's also not much evidence of Lowe declining from April of this season until now.

MONTH: K%, BB%, GB%, FB%, LD%, FIP, xFIP, BABIP
APRIL 6.7, 7.4, 57, 25, 18, 4.26, 4.75, .290
MAY 6.9, 6.1, 75, 13, 13, 3.81, 4.05, .348
JUNE 11.5, 8.7, 50, 26, 24, 4.47, 4.65, .350

Lowe's been a bit all over the place this year. He started out terribly in both April and May-he wasn't striking anyone out. He was able to put up a decent ERA in April though due to an average BABIP and good ground ball rate. Given how Lowe pitched in April we'd expect him to have an ERA around 4.50, his actual ERA was 2.27. His results were better than his performance.

In May, it was more of the same. No strikeouts. He got a ton of ground balls though, which is usually good. It appears that the Indians fielders weren't able to convert those ground balls into outs though (.348 BABIP), which isn't really surprising. Still, the Indians poor infield defense shouldn't be a reflection on Lowe as he pitched in such a way that we'd expect him to give up about 4.00 runs per game. He actually gave up about 4.30

Thus far in June, Lowe has gotten a few more strike outs (almost twice as many) but is giving up a lot more line drives and fly balls. Still, he hasn't pitched so poorly that an ERA above 7 should be expected-more like 4.50.

Lowe currently sports a .327 BABIP against, given league average rates we'd expect Lowe to have a .296 BABIP. This is a difference of 9 hits.

Is it possible that Lowe is throwing more hittable pitches? Yes
Is it possible that Lowe's defense is failing to make plays that they should? Yes

Don't listen to anyone telling you that Lowe was fantastic to start the season and sucks now because of his change in ERA, they have a fundamental misunderstanding of baseball. He's been riding the border of average and poor all season long.

Last edited by NewToCA; 06-20-2012 at 10:23 AM.. Reason: start as a new topic, not a continuation of another thread
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Old 08-03-2012, 07:20 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,790,963 times
Reputation: 6636
Now I think it's safe to say that Lowe has declined.

Last season, Lowe was able to strike out over 17% of batters and was close to that the final two months of the season while walking around 8%.

This season, Lowe wasn't able to strike anyone out. On the season he's only been able to strike out 8% of the batters he faced, that's just not good enough to be a major league pitcher.

Early in the season he was able to average about 1 strikeout per walk. In July he walked almost 2 batters per strike out. Something appears to be wrong with Lowe, or he's finished as a major league pitcher.

When Cleveland released him I thought he would be a good pickup for the Nationals. Cleveland has a terrible infield defense, while the Nationals have one of the best. Since Lowe still manages to get groundballs about 60% of the time, Washington would be a perfect fit for him. But not if he can't figure out how to strike out some batters.
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