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Old 09-08-2019, 03:15 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 3,455,466 times
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Congrats to Verlander for gettin the win on 'his night'* on Saturday 9/7/19. He gave up 1 run in 7 innings, and struck out 7, in a 2-1 Astros win.

The radio announcers said it was a sellout crowd.

(* his night = it was 'Justin Verlander Bobblehead Night')
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Old 09-08-2019, 10:13 AM
Status: "Playoff baseball real soon." (set 1 day ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
47,520 posts, read 37,532,459 times
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Justin Verlander still needs thirty strikeouts to reach 3,000. He had only seven last night, which leads me to believe that the feat might not happen during this regular season. It's likely the Astros will have to rest him for the playoffs, so don't be surprised if he gets just two more starts prior to that time.

He deserves 3,000 the right way. There's no guarantee it will happen on the road, at home, or even this year. If it happens in '20, then so be it, and hopefully without unneeded distractions.
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Old 09-08-2019, 11:51 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
42,226 posts, read 18,858,678 times
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Verlander dominates the traditional evaluation stats, but advanced metrics indicate he is not the best pitcher in the AL this season. Verlander has a 2.52 ERA, but his defense independent ERA is 3.18. His former teammate, Charlie Morton has an ERA of 3.11, but leads the AL with a 2.75 DIPs ERA. Right behind him is teammate Gerrit Cole at 2.76.

The reason Verlander has the better common ERA is that he has been extremely fortunate this season in an area over which he has no control, his luck in what has happened with the balls he has allowed to be put into play. Verlander leads the AL in this luck category, opponents have been hitting .202 against him when they aren't striking out, walking or hitting home runs. For Morton it has been .294. For Gerrit Cole it has been .273.

Normal BABIP for the AL is right around .300. If Verlander was having normal luck with the balls he has allowed to be put into play, he would not be looking like a certain CY Young winner. The race would be between Morton and Cole.

I don't know what the Cy Young voters will do. They have been showing signs of taking progressive stats into account in these votes ever since 2008 when they correctly identified Tim Lincecum as the best pitcher in the NL despite others having better traditional stats. I suppose it will depend on how far they have bought into the concept of outs on balls in play being a matter of luck and the defenders behind him, not pitcher skill.

In that Houston is now the most advanced metric oriented club in operation, their front office will be aware that Cole has been more valuable than Verlander and won't be fooled by the great good fortune he has had on balls in play.
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Old 09-08-2019, 02:55 PM
Status: "Playoff baseball real soon." (set 1 day ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
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Astros scoring at least 20 again today. This marks the first time that the Astros have scored 20 runs in a home game. It's also the most runs by the Astros in one game at Minute Maid. The previous home high was 19, done at the Astrodome twice. Their club records have been done in road games.

Right now: Astros 21, Mariners 1, into the ninth.
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Old 09-09-2019, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Cole has passed Morton to take the Defense Independent ERA lead, 2.68 to 2.75. Cole also has a commanding lead in strikeouts per nine innings, 13.72 to Verlander's 11.88.


If your preference is for pitching WAR, Verlander is far ahead of Cole, 7.1 to 5.4. However both trail another Texas pitcher, the Rangers' Mike Minor who leads MLB with 8.0. That's using Baseball Reference's WAR calculations. Fangraphs sees it differently, they have:
Cole 6.0
Morton 5.6
Verlander 5.5
Minor 4.5

I know a lot about how WAR is calculated for position players, I don't know much at all as to how they calculate it for pitchers. Nor do I know what is different about how Baseball Reference calculates it as opposed to FanGraphs. However, at least both systems seem to agree that four best AL Cy Young candidates are Cole, Morton, Verlander and Minor.
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Old 09-09-2019, 07:31 PM
Status: "Playoff baseball real soon." (set 1 day ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
47,520 posts, read 37,532,459 times
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Astros are just continuing their outright assault on the AL West. They've scored 31 runs in their last 12 innings. And in this game, Alvarez had two very long home runs, including one into the third deck at Minute Maid near the right field foul zone.

Furthermore, Bregman is already being pinch-run in the fourth inning by Myles Straw.
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:37 AM
 
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Two sportswriters discuss the early September and forward 'races' for the AL MVP, NL MVP, AL Cy Young, NL Cy Young, AL Rookie of the Year, and NL Rookie of the Year (Alvarez, Bregman, Verlander, and Cole were mentioned in the AL categories 'most fitting' each):

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ces-going-wire
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Old 09-10-2019, 11:03 AM
 
Location: The tiki tiki tiki tiki tiki room
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Would anyone vote for Bregman (or someone else) over Trout?
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Old 09-10-2019, 02:36 PM
 
12,772 posts, read 3,455,466 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmiej View Post
Would anyone vote for Bregman (or someone else) over Trout?

I wouldn't, but I think some people have an issue with the MVP being on a non contending team.
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Old 09-10-2019, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
42,226 posts, read 18,858,678 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RMESMH View Post
I wouldn't, but I think some people have an issue with the MVP being on a non contending team.
Trout's second MVP award (2016) came in a year that the Angels were 74-84, 21 games out of first place in the AL West.
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