Hamels and Victorino being shopped?

[bobtn]

Originally Posted by CHIP72

It is going to be very hard to trade Cliff Lee, especially if he continues to pitch mediocre, because he has so much money and so many years left on his contract.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by CHIP72

It is going to be very hard to trade Cliff Lee, especially if he continues to pitch mediocre, because he has so much money and so many years left on his contract.

Lee's contract is almost as big an albatross for the Phillies as Ryan Howard's contract is. (As a side note, IMO the contract the Phillies gave Cliff Lee is the contract they should have given Roy Halladay, if you are going to give the kind of contract they gave Lee to a pitcher in his 30s.)

Lee and Halladay have been almost identically as productive over the previous 3 seasons

[CHIP72]

IMO, Halladay is one of the top pitchers of his generation while Lee is a good pitcher who had a few really good years. I think Halladay is more likely to be a good pitcher into his late 30s than Lee is.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by CHIP72

IMO, Halladay is one of the top pitchers of his generation while Lee is a good pitcher who had a few really good years. I think Halladay is more likely to be a good pitcher into his late 30s than Lee is.

It should be super easy to tell a top of his generation pitcher's stats from a good pitcher's stats right?
From 2009-2011:
Pitcher-A struck out 22.4% of the batters he faced
Pitcher-B struck out 22.1% of the batters he faced

Pitcher-A walked 3.5% of the hitters he faced
Pitcher-B walked 3.8% of the hitters he faced

Pitcher-A had a .243 batting average against
Pitcher-B had a .243 batting average against

A clear difference between the 2 pitchers

[CHIP72]

Filihok - you forgot a few stats (all career stats as of 6/16/12):

Halladay - .664 career winning percentage, 95 games over .500 (192-97)
Lee - .615 career winning percentage, 45 games over .500 (120-75)

Halladay - top 5 win seasons in career: 22, 21, 20, 19, 19
Lee - top 5 win seasons in career: 22, 18, 17, 14, 14 (Lee also had a third season with 14 wins)

Halladay - led league in innings pitched 4 times, 6 seasons 230+ innings pitched, 8 seasons 220+ innings pitched
Lee - never led league in innings pitched, 2 seasons 230+ innings pitched, 3 seasons 220+ innings pitched (also 3 other seasons 200+ innings pitched)

Halladay - 36% better than league average ballpark-adjusted career ERA in just over 2600 career innings
Lee - 15% better than league average ballpark-adjusted career ERA in nearly 1750 career innings

Halladay - 2 Cy Young Awards, 5 top 3 Cy Young voting finishes, 7 top 5 Cy Young voting finishes
Lee - 1 Cy Young Award, 2 top 3 Cy Young voting finishes, 3 top 5 Cy Young voting finishes

Roy Halladay is older than Cliff Lee, but not dramatically so (Halladay was born 5/14/77; Lee was born 8/30/78).

Regardless of all the stats supporting the case that Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee (or that Halladay and Lee were comparable pitchers between 2009 and 2011), the bigger issue to me is projecting how they will age. It's late and I don't want to go into too many details for comparing similar pitchers to Halladay and Lee, however, I will note the following:

*According to baseball-reference.com, the 10 most-comparable pitchers to Roy Halladay through age 34 includes 2 Hall of Famers (Carl Hubbell and Jim Bunning), a third pitcher who will probably make the HOF (Mike Mussina), and a fourth pitcher who IMO has a chance at the HOF (Andy Pettitte). Based on my own subjective examination of the stats, the 3 most similar pitchers to Roy Halladay at a similar point in their careers are Mussina, Hubbell, and either Tim Hudson or Bret Saberhagen. Halladay tends to be better than his comparable pitchers; the only guy who is arguably better is Carl Hubbell.

*According to baseball-reference.com, the 10 most-comparable pitchers to Cliff Lee through age 32 includes 0 Hall of Famers and no guys who are likely to make the Hall of Fame. (I'd say Don Newcombe and and Larry Jansen, who were both National League pitchers in the late 1940s and 1950s, are probably the best of the comparable pitchers.) Based on my own subjective examination of the stats, the 3 most similar pitchers to Cliff Lee at a similar point in their careers are Newcombe, Jansen, and Freddy Garcia; I'd probably put Denny Neagle fourth. Like Halladay, Lee tends to be better than his most comparable pitchers; I'd say he's better than any of his 10 comparable pitchers.

*Based on a quick look of the career stats of the pitchers who are similar to Halladay and Lee, the pitchers more similar to Halladay, while almost universally falling off in quality in their mid-30s, did in some cases pitch effectively or reasonably effectively (better than or around league average) into their late 30s; the two pitchers most similar to Halladay, Mike Mussina and Carl Hubbell, both fall in this category. By contrast, the pitchers most similar to Lee typically did not pitch in the majors past their mid-30s. (There are some pitchers more comparable to Halladay, like Bret Saberhagen, who also did not pitch past their mid-30s.)

[filihok]

Originally Posted by CHIP72

Filihok - you forgot a few stats (all career stats as of 6/16/12):

One problem with using career stats is that Cliff Lee is fundamentally a different pitcher than he was earlier in his career. We shouldn't expect his future performance to be an amalgam of the two players that he has been. We need to project him from his current state.

Regardless of all the stats supporting the case that Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee (or that Halladay and Lee were comparable pitchers between 2009 and 2011), the bigger issue to me is projecting how they will age.

This is, of course, important.

ZiPS projected (and if you are better than ZiPS you should probably start selling your projections)
Lee 16 - 7 2.83 ERA in 29 starts and 210 innings. 40% better than league average ERA
Halladay 17 - 7 2.83 ERA in 29 starts and 209.6 innings. 40% better than league average ERA

Lee and Halladay were, buy any reasonable expectation, 2 of the top pitchers coming into the season.

It's late and I don't want to go into too many details for comparing similar pitchers to Halladay and Lee, however, I will note the following:

*According to baseball-reference.com, the 10 most-comparable pitchers to Roy Halladay through age 34 includes 2 Hall of Famers (Carl Hubbell and Jim Bunning), a third pitcher who will probably make the HOF (Mike Mussina), and a fourth pitcher who IMO has a chance at the HOF (Andy Pettitte). Based on my own subjective examination of the stats, the 3 most similar pitchers to Roy Halladay at a similar point in their careers are Mussina, Hubbell, and either Tim Hudson or Bret Saberhagen. Halladay tends to be better than his comparable pitchers; the only guy who is arguably better is Carl Hubbell.

*According to baseball-reference.com, the 10 most-comparable pitchers to Cliff Lee through age 32 includes 0 Hall of Famers and no guys who are likely to make the Hall of Fame. (I'd say Don Newcombe and and Larry Jansen, who were both National League pitchers in the late 1940s and 1950s, are probably the best of the comparable pitchers.) Based on my own subjective examination of the stats, the 3 most similar pitchers to Cliff Lee at a similar point in their careers are Newcombe, Jansen, and Freddy Garcia; I'd probably put Denny Neagle fourth. Like Halladay, Lee tends to be better than his most comparable pitchers; I'd say he's better than any of his 10 comparable pitchers.

*Based on a quick look of the career stats of the pitchers who are similar to Halladay and Lee, the pitchers more similar to Halladay, while almost universally falling off in quality in their mid-30s, did in some cases pitch effectively or reasonably effectively (better than or around league average) into their late 30s; the two pitchers most similar to Halladay, Mike Mussina and Carl Hubbell, both fall in this category. By contrast, the pitchers most similar to Lee typically did not pitch in the majors past their mid-30s. (There are some pitchers more comparable to Halladay, like Bret Saberhagen, who also did not pitch past their mid-30s.)

ZiPS projected the following for the rest of their careers (if my abacus is right):
Lee 102 - 57 3.24 ERA, 205 games 1460 innings, 254 walks and 1295 strike outs
Halladay 95 - 52 3.18 ERA, 175 games, 1271 innings, 206 walks and 1059 strike outs

[CHIP72]

What methodology does ZiPS use to arrive at their player projections?

[manderly6]

Word is they offered Hamels 6 years, 144m.

[NCOriolesfan]

Originally Posted by manderly6

Word is they offered Hamels 6 years, 144m.

He'd be a fool to turn that down. No way he gets that much from anyone else in the offseason.

[manderly6]

Originally Posted by NCOriolesfan

He'd be a fool to turn that down. No way he gets that much from anyone else in the offseason.

I think he could get more. Someone will give him a 7 year deal.