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Old 10-17-2014, 06:49 PM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 26 days ago)
 
48,356 posts, read 45,635,579 times
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This year was the best I have ever seen the M's in a long time. They were so close to getting to the playoffs. I wonder what next year will hold.
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Old 10-18-2014, 06:41 AM
Status: "Come to Texas. We still have plastic straws!" (set 1 day ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
47,010 posts, read 37,156,408 times
Reputation: 28395
Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
This year was the best I have ever seen the M's in a long time. They were so close to getting to the playoffs. I wonder what next year will hold.
They're practically right there. Problem is, the rest of the AL West is either very good or about to get real good. Next season, we may not have a bad team in that division. Every time I write the Angels off the page, there they go winning the division. Seattle's got the pitching and a good lineup. The Astros are rapidly getting better, and the Rangers and A's will be showing signs of contention.

And Seattle could emerge from the pack and pull it out. If the Angels slide, then you've got a chance.
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Old 10-18-2014, 09:11 AM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 26 days ago)
 
48,356 posts, read 45,635,579 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by case44 View Post
They're practically right there. Problem is, the rest of the AL West is either very good or about to get real good. Next season, we may not have a bad team in that division. Every time I write the Angels off the page, there they go winning the division. Seattle's got the pitching and a good lineup. The Astros are rapidly getting better, and the Rangers and A's will be showing signs of contention.

And Seattle could emerge from the pack and pull it out. If the Angels slide, then you've got a chance.
In short, the AL West is about to get really tough. It might be like 1991, when EVERY team in the AL West had a .500 or better winning percentage.

Seattle has good stuff now, but with so many other teams having the same thing, it's hard to tell what will happen. Seattle lost it in the very last day of the season. What was more tragic was the irony. No one expected the Angels to come out on top, and no one expected the Rangers to go the way of the Astros. Furthermore, no one expected Houston to do as well as they did this year. And the way Seattle lost it, it was in the very last second. It wasn't a collapse, but rather, someone else just had a little bit more.
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Old 10-18-2014, 11:18 AM
 
790 posts, read 492,849 times
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I think 2015 is when the Mariners break their postseason drought.
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Old 10-18-2014, 03:49 PM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 26 days ago)
 
48,356 posts, read 45,635,579 times
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Originally Posted by jbtornado View Post
I think 2015 is when the Mariners break their postseason drought.
Let's hope so. This year the came so close. Let's make next year even better.
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Old 02-07-2015, 09:58 PM
 
983 posts, read 789,022 times
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The Mariners are a 90+ win ball club in the 2015 season.

That should be enough to lock in a wild card spot and maybe the division title.

The addition of Nelson Cruz into the middle of our line-up should generate at minimum another 5-7 wins over the 87 win 2014 season.

It will be tough for our pitching staff to repeat the stellar / near record breaking numbers they posted up as a staff in '14. But hopefully we open the season with iwakuma - Paxton and Tajuan Walker ( none of those guys were healthy and on the 25 man roster 2014 ) I expect all 3 of them PLUS King Felix obviously.

Its going to be a fun year at Safeco Field ! I have season tickets next to the dugout also !!!!
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Old 02-08-2015, 07:31 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,284 posts, read 18,643,446 times
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Originally Posted by StrkAliteN View Post

The addition of Nelson Cruz into the middle of our line-up should generate at minimum another 5-7 wins over the 87 win 2014 season.
You are overestimating the impact of a single player.
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Old 02-08-2015, 12:16 PM
 
983 posts, read 789,022 times
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Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
You are overestimating the impact of a single player.
Well the Vegas odds makers have a different opinion than yours as the Mariners are in the top 10 teams expected to win the World Series this year.

Washington Nationals
6/1
Los Angeles Dodgers
8/1
Boston Red Sox
12/1
Chicago Cubs
12/1
Los Angeles Angels
12/1
St. Louis Cardinals
12/1
Detroit Tigers
14/1
Seattle Mariners
16/1

San Francisco Giants
18/1
Toronto Blue Jays
18/1
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Old 02-08-2015, 01:29 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,284 posts, read 18,643,446 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StrkAliteN View Post
Well the Vegas odds makers have a different opinion than yours as the Mariners are in the top 10 teams expected to win the World Series this year.
Las Vegas odds have to do with the general public perception of the Mariner's chances and as such, mean nothing more than collective opinions.

There is a scientific way to go about this. Last season at age 33. Nelson Cruz posted 4.7 WAR, the best year of his career. That is 4.7 wins above replacement level leftfielders. Of course last season the Mariners did not have a replacement level player in left, they had Dustin Ackley who compiled 1.9 WAR, or 1.9 wins above replacement level. So if Cruz duplicates the best season of his career, which of course is not likely at age 34, that would represent a 2.8 WAR improvement over Ackley. Again....that is only if Cruz is just as good in 2015 as he was in 2014.

So, the very best Seattle could expect as a consequence of signing Cruz, would be 2.8 more wins, considerably less than the 5-7 wins you postulated.

That Las Vegas betters are making the same incorrect assumption about Cruz as you did, does not change the above.

An extra 2.8 WAR is a very good pickup for Seattle, be happy that you are getting that.
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Old 02-08-2015, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,284 posts, read 18,643,446 times
Reputation: 18791
Something else to keep in mind concerning Cruz. He is a lifetime .268-.328-.501 hitter, but in Safeco Park over his career he has batted .234-.309-.440. That is an OPS difference of .829 vs .749.
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