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View Poll Results: Most surprising MLB contender this year
Baltimore Orioles 16 43.24%
Chicago White Sox 0 0%
Oakland Athletics 13 35.14%
Washington Nationals 2 5.41%
Pittsburgh Pirates 4 10.81%
Other 2 5.41%
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-21-2012, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,787,720 times
Reputation: 6636

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Quote:
Originally Posted by plates View Post
I'm a little more lenient with my assessments of some teams. Being in the AL East with Boston and the Yankees where it is a bad season when the don't make the playoffs let alone have a losing record I consider having a lower record to be more acceptable
Fair point.

Quote:
It is said that going from the AL to the NL a team would expect to win about three games more a year on average and I would say something equivalent is applicable for the AL East (most years).
Let's take a look.

ESPN.COM has the easiest place too look at these standings, but they only go back to 2004.
From 2004 to 2011:
The Orioles have averaged 66 wins and 95 losses (rounding and a couple seasons of 101 games is why it doesn't average to 162 games) - a .410 winning percentage
During that time they averaged a 26 and 47 record vs the AL EAST - a .360 winning percentage
Their non-divisional average record was 40 and 49 - a .452 winning percentage.

A .452 winning percentage over the course of 162 games results in 73 wins. That's a difference of 7 wins. Yeah. The AL East is typically a very strong division.

In 2004 the Orioles had a 44 and 42 non-AL East record. That's an 83 win pace for 162 games
From 2005 to 2007 the O's non-AL East winning percentage had them winning about 66 of 162 games.
From 2008 to 2011 the O's non-Al East winning percentage had them winning about 76 of 162 games.

So, they have been better, but not good, as of late. Unfortunately for the O's their mild improvement coincided with the Tampa Rays' gigantic improvement. In 2008 the O's were actually over .500 against teams not in the AL East. But, against teams in the AL East they were on a pace to win just 50 games. Why? Because they not only had to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox, but the Rays went from 66 wins in 2007 to 95 and co-beasts of the east in 2008.
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,787,720 times
Reputation: 6636
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Fair point.


Let's take a look.

ESPN.COM has the easiest place too look at these standings, but they only go back to 2004.
From 2004 to 2011:
The Orioles have averaged 66 wins and 95 losses (rounding and a couple seasons of 101 games is why it doesn't average to 162 games) - a .410 winning percentage
During that time they averaged a 26 and 47 record vs the AL EAST - a .360 winning percentage
Their non-divisional average record was 40 and 49 - a .452 winning percentage.

A .452 winning percentage over the course of 162 games results in 73 wins. That's a difference of 7 wins. Yeah. The AL East is typically a very strong division.

In 2004 the Orioles had a 44 and 42 non-AL East record. That's an 83 win pace for 162 games
From 2005 to 2007 the O's non-AL East winning percentage had them winning about 66 of 162 games.
From 2008 to 2011 the O's non-Al East winning percentage had them winning about 76 of 162 games.

So, they have been better, but not good, as of late. Unfortunately for the O's their mild improvement coincided with the Tampa Rays' gigantic improvement. In 2008 the O's were actually over .500 against teams not in the AL East. But, against teams in the AL East they were on a pace to win just 50 games. Why? Because they not only had to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox, but the Rays went from 66 wins in 2007 to 95 and co-beasts of the east in 2008.
This year, for kicks, the Orioles are winning at a .570 clip and a .590 clip against the AL East
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,821 posts, read 18,549,595 times
Reputation: 18648
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hesky View Post
It would certainly not be an easy game, and I agree Baltimore would be the underdog. But even so, 5 out 9 is just barely above .500. Considering the stakes of a do-or-die game between two of baseball's hottest teams, I think we'd be in for a treat.
Losing five out of nine to the A's wouldn't make them underdogs, especially since in this scenario we are talking about ..two teams with identical regular season records.

The home field advantage would make the A's a slight favorite. Since 1980 in MLB, the home team has won at a low of 51% and a high of 56%. A four percent advantage would require a series of games before it became a real factor.

In addition, neither the A's nor the O's seemed especially wedded to home games for their winning this year. Oakland has been 44-34 at home, 41-33 on the road. Baltimore has been 42-32 at home and 43-32 on the road.

No bookie would give much consideration to the home field advantage in this particular game.
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Old 09-21-2012, 02:10 PM
 
Location: La Mesa Aka The Table
7,480 posts, read 8,026,107 times
Reputation: 8512
The padres are making a strong finish with a low payroll
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Old 09-21-2012, 04:30 PM
 
Location: not Chicagoland
1,202 posts, read 1,026,531 times
Reputation: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
This year, for kicks, the Orioles are winning at a .570 clip and a .590 clip against the AL East
Good for them. I am happy about the resurgence of other (not the Red Sox or Yankees) teams in the AL East.
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Old 09-28-2012, 01:13 PM
 
20,896 posts, read 39,157,087 times
Reputation: 19172
Got to be my O's, after 15 sucko seasons they're finally having a proud season.
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Old 09-29-2012, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,784 posts, read 23,798,899 times
Reputation: 6195
A's with another walk off HR today in extra innings, coming back from trailing all day.

When looking at the roster turnover, tough to make a better case than Oakland.
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Old 10-03-2012, 06:31 PM
 
Location: East Bay, CA
4,872 posts, read 6,285,581 times
Reputation: 4302
How is Oakland not the winner?

The just won the AL West! NOBODY saw that coming. No. Body.
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Old 10-03-2012, 06:45 PM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 7 days ago)
 
47,974 posts, read 45,435,742 times
Reputation: 15309
I voted for the Nationals because they have been a perennially losing team for a long time. In fact, the last time they were ever in the playoffs, it was in 1981 was the Montreal Expos. The Expos/Nats have not been to the playoffs since, until NOW.

I would pick the O's next. They have a history of being good and being a good team. They went from 1998-2011 with losing seasons. Now they are going to the playoffs. However, this isn't their first time being in the playoffs. 1969–1971, 1973–1974, 1979, 1983, 1996 1997, these were all playoff years.

The White Sox surprised me by NOT going to the playoffs. They were good all the way up to the end, and then a collapse. It was like the 2010 San Diego Padres. They were good all the way up to the end, and then San Francisco caught up to them, then, no playoffs for the Padres.
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Old 10-03-2012, 07:25 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,787,720 times
Reputation: 6636
Quote:
Originally Posted by 04kL4nD View Post
How is Oakland not the winner?

The just won the AL West! NOBODY saw that coming. No. Body.
No. Body. saw the Orioles taking the Yankees to the final game in the AL East either.
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