U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Sports > Baseball
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-20-2012, 07:48 AM
 
2,963 posts, read 3,061,219 times
Reputation: 2869

Advertisements

A team isn't going to start an average pitcher for a wild-card play-in game. It will likely be their #1 or #2 pitcher in the rotation.

As for the starter vs reliever stats - here is my theory on why the average reliever seems to gives up fewer runs:

How often do you see a manager pull his starter when he is NOT in trouble? I'm not saying this doesn't happen. Managers use pitch counts and sometimes yank their starter once he hits about 100 pitches regardless of the situation on the field. But, it is more common for a manager to pull his starter after he's already given up a bunch of runs or he has some runners on base. Managers like to keep starters in the game as long as possible since they are starters for a reason (yes, circular logic here). They usually have the better pitch arsenal (2+ "out" pitches, maybe 3-4 quality pitches) as opposed to relievers who are (at least in my opinion) just pitchers that couldn't cut the mustard as a starter.

So, if a manager is likely to keep his starter in the game UNTIL he is in trouble before he is yanked... they likely will also have a higher ERA. These pitchers will either have already given up a bunch of runs OR have runners on base and be responsible for those runs against their ERA when they possibly score due to the bullpen.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-20-2012, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,809,480 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
As for the starter vs reliever stats - here is my theory on why the average reliever seems to gives up fewer runs:

How often do you see a manager pull his starter when he is NOT in trouble? I'm not saying this doesn't happen. Managers use pitch counts and sometimes yank their starter once he hits about 100 pitches regardless of the situation on the field. But, it is more common for a manager to pull his starter after he's already given up a bunch of runs or he has some runners on base. Managers like to keep starters in the game as long as possible since they are starters for a reason (yes, circular logic here). They usually have the better pitch arsenal (2+ "out" pitches, maybe 3-4 quality pitches) as opposed to relievers who are (at least in my opinion) just pitchers that couldn't cut the mustard as a starter.

So, if a manager is likely to keep his starter in the game UNTIL he is in trouble before he is yanked... they likely will also have a higher ERA. These pitchers will either have already given up a bunch of runs OR have runners on base and be responsible for those runs against their ERA when they possibly score due to the bullpen.
All good reasons why ERA is a poor statistic by which to measure pitcher performance. That's why I included strikeout, walk, and run estimators (SIERA, FIP, xFIP). Relievers lead in these categories (except walks).

You're right that starters have different skill sets which allow them to succeed for longer periods of time in a game. Having a 3rd or 4th pitch certainly makes one more effective over a number of innings. Take Mariano Rivera, he basically had 1 pitch. From 2007 to 2012 he threw his cutter well over 80% of the time. Prior to 2004 he threw his fast ball almost exclusively. Between 2004 and 2007 he began to transition from fastball to cutter throwing each about 50% of the time. *data When Mariano came up with the Yankees in 1995, he was a starter. In his first season he pitched 67 innings giving up 71 hits, 30 walks, 51 strike outs and 5.51 runs / 9 innings. Next year he was shifted to the bullpen and averaged 71 innings, 15 walks, 66 strike outs and just over 2 runs / 9 innings for the next 16 seasons. Mariano is an extreme case, but some pitchers are just perfectly suited for relief roles.

Some pitchers, like Mariano, have 1 or 2 excellent pitches. This will allow them to succeed over 1 or 2 innings but may be less effective over 5 or 7 innings. Other pitchers are especially successful against same-handed pitchers. Using them in relief allows them to face the majority same-handed pitchers. Then there is the fact that if you're only going 1 inning you don't have to pace yourself, you can just plain throw harder.


Quote:
A team isn't going to start an average pitcher for a wild-card play-in game. It will likely be their #1 or #2 pitcher in the rotation.
No one was suggesting this. The suggestion was to start your best pitcher, those tend to be your high leverage relievers.
Take the Braves for example, their best starter has been Chris Medlen. Medlen has 10 starts, 70 innings, 9 walks, 72 strikeouts and and expected ERA of about 2.50. So an average start for Medlen is 7 innings, 1 walk, 7 K's and 1.9 runs. That's outstanding. But if the Braves used him in the play in game they wouldn't be able to use him in the 1st game of the next round and wouldn't be able to use him twice in the next round if needed. So, the though is that the Braves could approximate his performance by using relievers in the play in game AND have him available in games 1 and 5 of the next round.

If the Braves used their top 3 relievers like this
Kimbrel 1.2 innings
Venters 1.2 innings
Martinez 2.2 innings
and they were able to produce at the same rate they have over the season we'd expect:
5 and 2/3 innings pitched, 7.2 K's, 1.8 walks, and 1.5 runs allowed.
Quite similar to what Medlen was expected to provide.
At this point the Braves could use their specialist relievers and other starters to face a few hitters in which they enjoyed platoon and other strategic advantages.

With an off day following the play in game they have a full slate of pitchers available for the 2nd round.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 10:05 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,346,398 times
Reputation: 36094
The first inning scores about 0.15 more runs than any other inning (because it's always the top of the batting order), so the pitcher who pitches the first inning is going to give up 0.15 more runs per appearance than any other pitcher who comes in later. An ERA difference of 0.60 is over nine innings, or about 0.07 per inning, so 0.15 would be enough to account for the difference.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 10:11 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,809,480 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
The first inning scores about 0.15 more runs than any other inning
This is true
Quote:
(because it's always the top of the batting order),
Is this totally true? You'd have to compare runs scored in the first inning to runs scored in all innings where the lead-off hitter leads off. Teams team to have their best hitters hit at the top of the line up, so more runs scoring for that reason certainly makes sense, but there are other possibilities, such as pitchers aren't as warmed up in the first as they are in subsequent innings

Last edited by filihok; 09-20-2012 at 10:20 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
5,886 posts, read 4,194,442 times
Reputation: 4161
I really hate hate hate hate HATE the WC play in game. It defeats the entire purpose of the regular season. Also as a Braves fan I feel like we could finish nearly 10 game ahead of St. Louis/LA Dodgers and then lose a fluke game to them and that thought really frustrates me. And no I wouldn't feel any different if Atlanta was the one in St. Louis' position.

Anyway I really hope the Braves figure out a way to make sure Medlen is the one pitching in the play in game. The kid is simply on fire and he seems to be a good luck charm for the team.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,809,480 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12 View Post
Anyway I really hope the Braves figure out a way to make sure Medlen is the one pitching in the play in game. The kid is simply on fire and he seems to be a good luck charm for the team.
The Braves have a 7 game lead for the 1st wild card slot. They should be able to set up their rotation however they want.

Assuming that no team is ballsy enough to try starting relievers, they should at least leave their 2-4 starts off the roster and add another couple of arms and maybe a few extra position players.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
5,886 posts, read 4,194,442 times
Reputation: 4161
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
The Braves have a 7 game lead for the 1st wild card slot. They should be able to set up their rotation however they want.

Assuming that no team is ballsy enough to try starting relievers, they should at least leave their 2-4 starts off the roster and add another couple of arms and maybe a few extra position players.
Yeah but I don't really trust our manager, Fredi Gonzalez, to do "the right thing." Sometimes I think he outsmarts himself.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,346,398 times
Reputation: 36094
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12 View Post
I

Anyway I really hope the Braves figure out a way to make sure Medlen is the one pitching in the play in game. The kid is simply on fire and he seems to be a good luck charm for the team.
Depends on who they are playing. I'd start Hudson if it was the Dodgers. They score a run a game less than the Cardinals, and their offense is not tough enough to waste a good pitcher on. Start Hudson, and at least get a little more pop in the barring order against Dodger pitching, which is what you will need to beat them..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 04:41 PM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,551 posts, read 4,504,032 times
Reputation: 2488
The Wildcard game is awful, the divisional format is even worse. The Braves will probably end up winning first wildcard by a good 7+ games, so your telling me they could finish 7 games in front of Phillies WIN the season series against them, yet they have to play 1 single game to decide who gets WC.

And don't even talk about the divisional format where instead of the 2-2-1 formet its gonna be 2-3 meaning the Wildcard winner will have the first 2 at home. Use the Phillies again: The Phillies finish 12 games behind the Nats, but split the season series, but the Nats have the majors best record, so the Nats have to play the first 2 in Philly?? Really?? That's a joke! In the last 10 years I can remember 3 divisional series that have lasted the full 5 games (Angels vs. Yankees in 06, Tigers vs. Yankees in 11 and Rays vs. Rangers in 10), so were rewarding mediocrity this year??
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-20-2012, 05:14 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,162 posts, read 18,609,914 times
Reputation: 18751
7express

Quote:
The Braves will probably end up winning first wildcard by a good 7+ games, so your telling me they could finish 7 games in front of Phillies WIN the season series against them, yet they have to play 1 single game to decide who gets WC.
If it represents any measure of consolation, the Braves would get to host that one game by virtue of having the superior WC record.


It seems an unfairness to the Braves this season if it ends up that way, but I think Braves fans would have been tremendous supporters of the system if it had been in place for the '11 season. They would have been the second wild card team. Of course it wasn't in place and Atlanta saw no post season.

The thing is, no matter what sort of system is established, it will produce outcomes which favor a team one season and perhaps disqualify it the next. Changing the system to prevent the possibility of one wild card team having won many more games than the next would correct that in favor of creating a different set of possible inequities.

They have to have some sort of system...and after it is in place, all outrages are the product of random fortune, not the system.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Sports > Baseball
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top