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Old 09-25-2012, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,147 posts, read 18,609,914 times
Reputation: 18746

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I neglected Miley on my above list.

It is actually:
NL Rookies By WAR

Harper 4.0
Miley 3.4
Aoki 3.3
Cozart 2.6
Rizzo 1.9
Frazier 1.8
Rosario 1.7
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Old 09-28-2012, 08:17 AM
 
3,326 posts, read 4,547,078 times
Reputation: 1542
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7express View Post
Wilin Rozario > Todd Frazier > Bryce Harper

Rosario benefits by playing in Colorado. HR haven. Look at his stats away from Colorado; not great.

.254avg 9HR .284OBP .462SLG .747OPS

Frazier's got much better stats away from Cincinnati. Cincy is also a Homer-friendly park but Frazier actually has similiar numbers away from Cincinnati.

.299avg 9HR .351OBP .549SLG .906OPS


Frazier wins.
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Old 09-28-2012, 08:19 AM
 
3,326 posts, read 4,547,078 times
Reputation: 1542
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I neglected Miley on my above list.

It is actually:
NL Rookies By WAR

Harper 4.0
Miley 3.4
Aoki 3.3
Cozart 2.6
Rizzo 1.9
Frazier 1.8
Rosario 1.7

I think Miley will end up winning ROY personally. I hope they don't give it to Harper, although, he has been hitting the ball better lately and may finally warrant all the publicity he's been getting.
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Old 09-28-2012, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,809,480 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by theroc5156 View Post
Rosario benefits by playing in Colorado. HR haven. Look at his stats away from Colorado; not great.

.254avg 9HR .284OBP .462SLG .747OPS

Frazier's got much better stats away from Cincinnati. Cincy is also a Homer-friendly park but Frazier actually has similiar numbers away from Cincinnati.

.299avg 9HR .351OBP .549SLG .906OPS


Frazier wins.
While I certainly appreciate your attempt to adjust for home park, that'd make sense if players only hit (and didn't play defense or run the bases) and only hit on the road. But that's not all there is to it.

There are two superior stats to OBP, SLG and OPS that measure total offensive value and relative offensive value. Those stats are wOBA and wRC+

wOBA is weighted On Base Average. It's like batting average and OPS combined. Where batting average counts a home run the same as a single wOBA weights each type of hit. And where OPS tries to combine the ability to get on base with the ability to hit for power wOBA gives a truer measure since OPS double counts some things (all hits, actually).

wRC+ does what you are trying to do by removing the effect of playing in a high-offense stadium. But where you have to totally ignore half of a players' plate appearances wRC+ simply adjusts for the relative ease of hitting in different stadiums. It then compares the players' offense to the league average. 100=average. A number higher than 100 is better than average.

PLAYER wOBA, wRC+
Frazier .359 123
Rosario .359 112
Harper .346 116


You can see that Frazier and Rosario have provided about the same amount of offense, but, since Rosario hits in Coor's Field his adjusted (wRC+) offense is less than Frazier's.

Using these numbers we can figure out the total number of runs a player has produced. That numbers is called weighted Runs Created (wRC).

PLAYER wRC
Frazier 68
Rosario 61
Harper 80


Harper as a somewhat sizable lead in wRC because he's batted over 100 times more than both Frazier and Rosario.

Offensively, all 3 players are similar in offense. Frazier is the best hitter of the bunch, but not substantially.

Then there's defense.
Defense is a lot harder to measure than offense, especially for catchers.
Everything I've heard says that Harper is an excellent defensive player while Rosario and Frazier are poor defensive players.

The numbers back that up as well.
PLAYER Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating
Haper 13, 11
Frazier -1, -7
Rosario -1, -1


Now if you take the runs that each player has produced and add the runs they have saved:
Frazier 68 + (average of -1 and -7) = 64
Rosario 61 + (average of -1 and -1) = 60
Harper 80 + (average of 13 and 11) = 92



Harper has a tremendous lead. Part of that is because he's played more. Most of it is because he's been the better player.


*Stats from FanGraphs
Bryce Harper
Todd Frazier
Wilin Rosario
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Old 10-02-2012, 10:39 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn,NY
1,961 posts, read 4,306,505 times
Reputation: 1190
R.A Dickey has been playing all season with a torn abdominal muscle. Unbelieveable.

Baseball: MLB Sports News at ktrk
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:28 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,147 posts, read 18,609,914 times
Reputation: 18746
Buster Posey has wound up leading the NL in WAR..7.2. I think that he would have won the MVP even without this, but it pretty much closes the case. I'd now be shocked if anyone else won.

The AL MVP is Triple Crown vs Big Margin WAR leader. The fact that Detroit is in the post season and the Angels are home watching, will probably be enough to tip it in favor of the Triple Crown.
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:15 AM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
12,201 posts, read 10,436,423 times
Reputation: 11220
I'd give the AL MVP to Cabrera and AL CY to Weaver. I'll stay away from the NL awards, because I haven't paid enough attention to their side to give the players a fair shake.
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
1,447 posts, read 2,292,545 times
Reputation: 1361
NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey (As I Nats fan I'd love for Gio to get it, but I think it is Dickey's)
NL ROY: Bryce Harper

AL MVP: Cabrera (with Trout a very close second...both are deserving)
AL Cy Young: Verlander
NL ROY: Trout in a landslide

Nobody else is mentioning managers, but I think the Beltway bosses Davey Johnson (Nats) and Buck Showalter (O's) are easy choices. A magical year for baseball in the region...hopefully both teams can keep going in the post-season.
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Old 10-04-2012, 11:35 AM
 
3,326 posts, read 4,547,078 times
Reputation: 1542
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
While I certainly appreciate your attempt to adjust for home park, that'd make sense if players only hit (and didn't play defense or run the bases) and only hit on the road. But that's not all there is to it.

There are two superior stats to OBP, SLG and OPS that measure total offensive value and relative offensive value. Those stats are wOBA and wRC+

wOBA is weighted On Base Average. It's like batting average and OPS combined. Where batting average counts a home run the same as a single wOBA weights each type of hit. And where OPS tries to combine the ability to get on base with the ability to hit for power wOBA gives a truer measure since OPS double counts some things (all hits, actually).

wRC+ does what you are trying to do by removing the effect of playing in a high-offense stadium. But where you have to totally ignore half of a players' plate appearances wRC+ simply adjusts for the relative ease of hitting in different stadiums. It then compares the players' offense to the league average. 100=average. A number higher than 100 is better than average.

PLAYER wOBA, wRC+
Frazier .359 123
Rosario .359 112
Harper .346 116

You can see that Frazier and Rosario have provided about the same amount of offense, but, since Rosario hits in Coor's Field his adjusted (wRC+) offense is less than Frazier's.

Using these numbers we can figure out the total number of runs a player has produced. That numbers is called weighted Runs Created (wRC).

PLAYER wRC
Frazier 68
Rosario 61
Harper 80

Harper as a somewhat sizable lead in wRC because he's batted over 100 times more than both Frazier and Rosario.

Offensively, all 3 players are similar in offense. Frazier is the best hitter of the bunch, but not substantially.

Then there's defense.
Defense is a lot harder to measure than offense, especially for catchers.
Everything I've heard says that Harper is an excellent defensive player while Rosario and Frazier are poor defensive players.

The numbers back that up as well.
PLAYER Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating
Haper 13, 11
Frazier -1, -7
Rosario -1, -1

Now if you take the runs that each player has produced and add the runs they have saved:
Frazier 68 + (average of -1 and -7) = 64
Rosario 61 + (average of -1 and -1) = 60
Harper 80 + (average of 13 and 11) = 92


Harper has a tremendous lead. Part of that is because he's played more. Most of it is because he's been the better player.


*Stats from FanGraphs
Bryce Harper
Todd Frazier
Wilin Rosario

I appreciate the stats (seriously, I do) and they are VERY interesting. One point I would like to add (and at the risk of sounding like a huge Frazier fanboy) is that Frazier also played different positions. He's a 3B by trade, but played a bunch of games in the OF as well.

I will say this though, Harper is only 19. Frazier is 26 so I can see that being a feather in Harper's cap.
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