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Old 08-01-2018, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,990 posts, read 18,573,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Statz2k10 View Post
So you think the Nationals still compete this year with Realmunto instead of Harper? I agree Realmunto helps in future years.

Think about this too. If Harper stays with the Nationals they will get a 1st round pick type player because Harper will probably rejected qualifying offer.

Ignoring the whole Realmunto to Nationals (because I think that would be a huge pick up) unless the Nationals got a very good prospect for Harper they almost are better just keeping him & giving it a long shot of getting into the playoffs (which I don't think is that long but difficult and a lot has to happen). Because by keeping him you're getting a 1st round pick & you'd have to hope that the scouting is good enough to pick somebody that is likely a future mlb star (being a 1st round pick).
I agree that the Nationals should not be throwing in the towel for 2018.

The three NL East contenders run differentials:
Phillies + 23
Braves + 69
Nationals + 59

The Phythag standings would be:
Braves 60-44 -
Nationals 60-46 -1
Phillies 56-51 -5.5

The reason that the above isn't the reality is that the Phillies have been very lucky in 1 run games (20-10), the Braves have been fairly lucky as well (13-8) while the Nationals have been plagued by crappy luck in those contests (10-18)

So the probabilities suggest a rise in the Nationals fortune while the other two experience declines. The Nationals are still very much in the race.
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Old 08-01-2018, 12:53 PM
 
2,217 posts, read 3,087,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The reason that the above isn't the reality is that the Phillies have been very lucky in 1 run games (20-10), the Braves have been fairly lucky as well (13-8) while the Nationals have been plagued by crappy luck in those contests (10-18)

So the probabilities suggest a rise in the Nationals fortune while the other two experience declines. The Nationals are still very much in the race.



What is usually a factor (s) when a team is lucky in a 1 run game? Or is it just that. Luck?
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Old 08-01-2018, 01:02 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,990 posts, read 18,573,926 times
Reputation: 18677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Statz2k10 View Post
What is usually a factor (s) when a team is lucky in a 1 run game? Or is it just that. Luck?
Think about it....has there ever been a team with the ability not only to score or prevent x number of runs in a season, but also the ability to distribute them across games to maximize their chances of winning?

No such ability exists, so of course the outcome of one run games is a matter of luck, how could it be otherwise? There is a temptation to think that it is a matter of character, that teams win or lose one run games because they wanted it the most or didn't want it as much as their opponent did. This springs from the way announcers, and the players themselves talk about "momentum" and "clubhouse unity" and "all pulling together" etc. They want us to think that they succeed not just because of their muscles, but because of their superior desire or drive. Since only one club wins it all each year, are we to assume that none of the other clubs had any character?

The good news is that going forward, the Pythag winning percentage of a club is a more accurate predictor of future success or failure than is the actual winning percentage. We are of course talking probabilities, not absolutes, but we can get a clearer idea of how competitive or non competitive a club actually is by clearing away as much noise as possible in the data. Luck is noise in the data. Cleared away we see that the Nationals are very much in the race.
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Old 08-01-2018, 01:12 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,236,628 times
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The most accurate are projections

Using those projections, FanGraphs has the following:
Phillies 45% to win the division
Nats 33%
Braves 22%

With the Nationals also having an 11% chance to win the wild card. About a 50/50 overall chance at the postseason.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:10 PM
 
Location: NJ = liberalism is a mental disorder!
6,458 posts, read 4,392,457 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
The most accurate are projections

Using those projections, FanGraphs has the following:
Phillies 45% to win the division
Nats 33%
Braves 22%

With the Nationals also having an 11% chance to win the wild card. About a 50/50 overall chance at the postseason.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

I believe none of that, this is why the games get played imo.

The Phils and Braves could start losing while the Nats have a winning percentage as they're not that far from 1st place never mind the wild card at this point in time.

They won again today against the Mets - a 2 game sweep.
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,990 posts, read 18,573,926 times
Reputation: 18677
Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post
I believe none of that, this is why the games get played imo.

.
I does not appear that you understand what those projections represent. They are math calculations based on existing data, using formulas which have been tried and found to be accurate more frequently than other approaches to answering the question. To say that you don't believe them is like saying you do not believe that 3 plus 2 equals 5.

It is a calculation of probabilities, nothing more. Weather forecasting is based on probabilities extracted from a database of previous weather patterns. When they say that there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow that is based on calculating what followed when the prevailing conditions were the same as they are now. 7 out of 10 times it rained. 3 out of 10 times it did not. To say "you don't believe in the 70% chance" is nonsensical, just like saying you don't believe that a coin flip has 50-50 odds.
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:34 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,236,628 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post
I believe none of that, this is why the games get played imo.

The Phils and Braves could start losing while the Nats have a winning percentage as they're not that far from 1st place never mind the wild card at this point in time.

They won again today against the Mets - a 2 game sweep.
You understand none of that
That the Phillies and Braves could start losing is absolutely part of the results you see above. As is the chance that the Nationals could start losing.
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Old 08-01-2018, 03:49 PM
 
Location: NJ = liberalism is a mental disorder!
6,458 posts, read 4,392,457 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
You understand none of that
That the Phillies and Braves could start losing is absolutely part of the results you see above. As is the chance that the Nationals could start losing.

Then the Nats should just forfeit the rest of the season and go home.

Again, this is why the games get played.

Sure those so called predictions by whatever means they used could come to fruition the same as mine can as well if I made any.
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Old 08-01-2018, 04:00 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,236,628 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post
Then the Nats should just forfeit the rest of the season and go home.
So, you don't understand what a probability is
We get that
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Old 08-01-2018, 05:25 PM
 
Location: NJ = liberalism is a mental disorder!
6,458 posts, read 4,392,457 times
Reputation: 3937
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
So, you don't understand what a probability is
We get that

Probability - yes I do, but they may as well have called the Nats season over.


Good thing the Nats probably won't take that probability seriously.
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