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Old 08-01-2018, 05:33 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,235,023 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post
Probability - yes I do, but they may as well have called the Nats season over.
Why is a 50/50 shot at the playoffs calling the season over?


Quote:
Good thing the Nats probably won't take that probability seriously.
The Nats almost certainly have their own projections and forecasts.
Those forecasts world result in probabilities.


That the team didn't sell, yet didn't buy, we can infer that those probabilities were similar to those that I posted
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Old 08-01-2018, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,892 posts, read 18,562,052 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post

Again, this is why the games get played.

.
What is this supposed to mean? It seems like it would be in response to someone arguing that the probability calculations are sufficient and thus there is no need to actually play the games. In that there isn't anyone here arguing something that vacuous, why are you not only writing this, but repeating it as though it is some grand chunk of wisdom rather than the irrelevancy it actually is?

Probability is neither validated nor invalidated. If the weatherman tells us there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and it rains, that does not mean that he was right, if it doesn't rain, that does not mean that he was wrong. He stated that there was a 70 percent chance and he was right....there was a 70% chance.

That is what is being done with the advanced metrics, making probability determinations based on collected data. The projections CBeisbol mentioned are based on examining what happened to every team in the ML database which were in the position which X Club occupies with X number of games remaining. That of course is not a prediction that X Club will duplicate what the average team did from that position, it is a piece of information concerning the odds. If you grasp that distinction, then you do understand probability. We are still awaiting a sign that you do so grasp it.

Probability calculations have their uses....the most obvious example being in front of us...the Nationals having to decide if they were going to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. Knowing that the odds were actually more favorable than their present record suggested, is a very valuable tool in making that decision...wouldn't you agree?

If you insist on treating them as predictions, then they aren't useful because they were never designed to be oraculative.
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Old 08-01-2018, 05:50 PM
 
Location: NJ = liberalism is a mental disorder!
6,458 posts, read 4,389,152 times
Reputation: 3937
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
What is this supposed to mean? It seems like it would be in response to someone arguing that the probability calculations are sufficient and thus there is no need to actually play the games. In that there isn't anyone here arguing something that vacuous, why are you not only writing this, but repeating it as though it is some grand chunk of wisdom rather than the irrelevancy it actually is?

Probability is neither validated nor invalidated. If the weatherman tells us there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and it rains, that does not mean that he was right, if it doesn't rain, that does not mean that he was wrong. He stated that there was a 70 percent chance and he was right....there was a 70% chance.

That is what is being done with the advanced metrics, making probability determinations based on collected data. The projections CBeisbol mentioned are based on examining what happened to every team in the ML database which were in the position which X Club occupies with X number of games remaining. That of course is not a prediction that X Club will duplicate what the average team did from that position, it is a piece of information concerning the odds. If you grasp that distinction, then you do understand probability. We are still awaiting a sign that you do so grasp it.

This is what I disagree with.

Too many variables can mess those odds/metrics, this is why I don't even believe a weather person who says that "it's going to be cloudy in the morning" but when I wake up it's sunny instead and this has happened in my life.

I DO understand all of this, my take on it is of a different opinion and metrics in a matter of speaking so in simple terms I don't believe any future metrics and whatnot.


After the games are played we know for sure of the then here and now "metrics".
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Old 08-01-2018, 05:53 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,892 posts, read 18,562,052 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post
This is what I disagree with.

Too many variables can mess those odds/metrics, this is why I don't even believe a weather person who says that "it's going to be cloudy in the morning" but when I wake up it's sunny instead and this has happened in my life.

I DO understand all of this, my take on it is of a different opinion and metrics in a matter of speaking so in simple terms I don't believe any future metrics and whatnot.


After the games are played we know for sure of the then here and now "metrics".
....all of the above....or.....I don't understand it, so I will condemn it rather than trying to learn what it is.

I've tried, but I surrender to your declaration of Refusal To Learn.
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Old 08-01-2018, 06:03 PM
 
Location: NJ = liberalism is a mental disorder!
6,458 posts, read 4,389,152 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
....all of the above....or.....I don't understand it, so I will condemn it rather than trying to learn what it is.

I've tried, but I surrender to your declaration of Refusal To Learn.

I do know what probability is, it's just I don't live and breathe by it because of metrics that's all you need to know on why it may not make sense to you.


I don't mean to confuse you.


(tongue-in-cheek) "What's the probability of me dying in my sleep tonight? With the metrics used it should be about a 10 percent chance! Okay, I'll prove that wrong if I wake up in the morning."
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Old 08-01-2018, 06:15 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,892 posts, read 18,562,052 times
Reputation: 18660
Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post


(tongue-in-cheek) "What's the probability of me dying in my sleep tonight? With the metrics used it should be about a 10 percent chance! Okay, I'll prove that wrong if I wake up in the morning."
Wow, right after I explained to you that there is no right or wrong in probability, you write the above while simultaneously declaring that you do understand it.

If you understood it, you would not have written that. You continue to claim that you understand while supplying the proof that you do not.
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Old 08-01-2018, 08:32 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,235,023 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atgss View Post
I don't even believe a weather person who says that "it's going to be cloudy in the morning" but when I wake up it's sunny instead and this has happened in my life.

I DO understand all of this


The metrics say there's a 50% chance of heads and i got tails. They dont know what they are talking about.

The metrics say there's a 75% chance I wouldn't draw a heart out of this stack of cards, and I did. They don't know what they are talking about

The metrics say there's a 70% chance this batter will get out but he got a hit. They don't know what they are talking about.

No, YOU don't know what they are talking about
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Old 08-01-2018, 08:37 PM
 
18,864 posts, read 7,332,083 times
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IMO Nats played trade deadline correctly, neither buying nor selling.

They are in the middle, but with so many other teams, I think Fan Graphs is overstating their true odds.

On days Scherzer does not start, they are far below .500 6-1 to 8-1.
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Old 08-01-2018, 08:56 PM
 
18,864 posts, read 7,332,083 times
Reputation: 8070
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I agree that the Nationals should not be throwing in the towel for 2018.

The three NL East contenders run differentials:
Phillies + 23
Braves + 69
Nationals + 59

The Phythag standings would be:
Braves 60-44 -
Nationals 60-46 -1
Phillies 56-51 -5.5

The reason that the above isn't the reality is that the Phillies have been very lucky in 1 run games (20-10), the Braves have been fairly lucky as well (13-8) while the Nationals have been plagued by crappy luck in those contests (10-18)

So the probabilities suggest a rise in the Nationals fortune while the other two experience declines. The Nationals are still very much in the race.
Not sure I agree Phils were lucky. IMO some teams perform well under pressure, some wilt, and the gap vs Phythag reflects that regularly.

I like the Geno Auriemma UConn womens coach KPI: Against top teams, he expects his girls to win 60% of 50/50 balls not controlled by one team. Same concept. I view 1 run games like 50/50 balls. Who gets the bunt down, the dribbler to 2nd with runner on 2nd, no outs, who fouls off pitchers pitch with 2 strikes, winning run on 3rd, to draw a new pitch, etc.
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Old 08-01-2018, 09:06 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,235,023 times
Reputation: 3732
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Not sure I agree Phils were lucky. IMO some teams perform well under pressure, some wilt, and the gap vs Phythag reflects that regularly.

I like the Geno Auriemma UConn womens coach KPI: Against top teams, he expects his girls to win 60% of 50/50 balls not controlled by one team. Same concept. I view 1 run games like 50/50 balls. Who gets the bunt down, the dribbler to 2nd with runner on 2nd, no outs, who fouls off pitchers pitch with 2 strikes, winning run on 3rd, to draw a new pitch, etc.
Remember, giving up 9 runs of a 10 run lead is still a one-run game.
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