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Old 08-13-2018, 02:42 AM
 
18,881 posts, read 7,342,641 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7express View Post
We haven't hit rock bottom yet have we??
most dramatic sunday night game I ever recall

I am not sure I can answer your question.
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Old 08-13-2018, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,541 posts, read 4,492,339 times
Reputation: 2477
Default 60-58

Split 4 with the Braves, the killer being the Scherzer game in the second game of the double header. 1-1 after 8, Kelvin Herrera comes on, allows 2 in the 9th, goes on the DL right afterwards lose that game. And that Cubs series, woof! What a $#!t sandwich, 1 punch to the gut after another! Despite not allowing a hit through 5 2/3 Hellickson walked the bases loaded, Sammy Solis came on and allowed the game-tying single than Greg Holland allowed what turned out to be the winning run on a bases loaded walk. And than Sunday another Max letdown. Great pitcher's duel between Scherzer & new Cub Cole Hamels, 1-0 Nats on a sac fly after 7 and a half. Koda Glover escapes trouble in the bottom half of the 8th, Nats get 2 insurance runs on a bases loaded single for the suddenly scoring and rejouvinated Ryan Zimmerman and your thinking "not even this bullpen could blow this, right??" Wrong! As Ryan Madson says hold my beer. Ground out, infield single (could have been scored an error), HBP, pop up, HBP, grand slam. Game over! I think the first pinch hit, 2 out 2 strike walk off grand slam in over 70 years! Nats twitter is saying that's the nail in the coffin, but I'll give them this St. Louis series. IF they can somehow manage a split it'll keep them within striking distance with the Marlins at home next and than 2 of the next 3 series against the Phillies, anything less than that and they are likely toast, but tough to come back from that game last night. And also, much like Herrera on Tuesday, Madson afterwards complained of a "back injury" and really only this franchise! How does the manager NOT know a pitcher is injured?? Is the communication that bad. And I STILL love Rizzo's moves at the deadline gets rid of 2 half decent relievers because of problems only he knows what they were, yet sign Greg Holland who's stat AND eyes tells you sucks! Why?? It's almost like the Lerner's wouldn't let him add to the payroll so it's like a "**** you. You won't let me add payroll for a JT Realmuto, Mike Fiers, James Shields to fix glaring holes. Fine, than I'm just going to make this team as bad as it can be."

4 game series in St. Louis stars Monday, and than return home to face the Marlins on Friday.
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Old 08-13-2018, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,971 posts, read 18,569,815 times
Reputation: 18674
The National's chances are slipping away. Over the last week their chances for making the post season declined from 19.1 % to 16.5%. (According to Baseball Prospectus) The Braves are now rated at a 69.2 % chance and the Phillies are at 67.7%.

A 3-4 week is not the sort of surge that was needed.

Baseball Prospectus makes their calculations for this by taking the teams as they currently stand and running a sufficient number of simulations to produce the frequency of teams reaching or failing to reach the post season from the position that they were in on that day. So, when we have Washington with a 16.5% chance, that means if they ran 1000 simulations, the Nationals made the post season 165 times and didn't make it 835 times.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
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Old 08-13-2018, 10:44 PM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,541 posts, read 4,492,339 times
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This bullpen is ****ing atrocious! Even if they DID somehow make it to the playoffs they are one and done anyways so do I want to watch that again?? Nope! So lets go Cards, let’s go Marlins and let’s go Phillies.
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:38 AM
 
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I do think Nats are done.
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Old 08-15-2018, 06:38 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,971 posts, read 18,569,815 times
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Nats chances of reaching the post season are now 8% according to Baseball Prospectus.
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Old 08-15-2018, 09:13 PM
 
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Unless they come back tonight, they are 1 game below .500, and 9 games behind the Braves with almost no hope of a wildcard. But on the bright side, Bryce has his 30 homers, and he'll be gone soon enough.
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Old 08-16-2018, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
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The division is definitely over Wildcard is about even though they still have I think 20 games vs the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals and Rockies. 7 games and 7 teams to jump.
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Old 08-21-2018, 01:36 AM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,541 posts, read 4,492,339 times
Reputation: 2477
Default 62-63

A 2-5 week with a 1-3 trip in St. Louis and came home losing 2 of 3 to the Marlins follows a 3-4 week as this team is about toast. The Wildcard is unofficially officially over at 6.5 games back. It's not a lot of games back, but with the 3 West teams (and the 4th [Giants] only a half game worse than we are) and the 3 Central teams (4 if someone ends up catching the Cubs) along with the 2nd place East team (alternating between Phils & Braves it seems daily) and the math just isn't going to add up for a WC bid. I took a look at the Cardinals schedule earlier and starting Monday night in Los Angeles 22 of their final 37 games are against the Dodgers, Rockies, Pirates & Brewers, 4 teams with better records than what we have, and no matter what happens in those games its a no win for the Nats. Example A: Next 9 games for the Cardinals are the Dodgers, Rockies & Pirates. They just won the first game in LA via back-to-back 9th inning homers, and let's say they lose the next 2 in LA and lose 2 of 3 against both the Rockies & Pirates to finish that stretch 3-6. What benefit does that really give the Nats?? Yah, OK they likely gained a game or 2 on St. Louis, but when BOTH the Rockies & Pirates have better records, you lose/stay even with them and you just knocked a week & handful of games off the calendar and you are STILL chasing multiple teams anyways. Example B just happened this weekend: Rockies sweeping the 4 game series in Atlanta. I guess it helped a little that the Rockies swept the series (would've helped a lot more is this atrociuous team could beat the freaking Marlins!!!!!) but when the Rockies are ahead of you in the WC you just lost 2 games to them in that race and just knocked 4 games off the calendar. THAT'S why the WC is out....too many teams in front, and too many head-to-heads left between those teams.


Now let's tackle the division: That's not going any better! The Phillies & Braves were practically begging to let the Nats back into the race this week, and what did the Nats do "Nah, we don't lose in the Division series again. Why don't you guys [Atlanta & Philly] try to advance an East team out of the NLDS for the first time in 3 years??" A week ago if they could get 1 more out or if Ryan Madson could actually tell one (any??) of his coaches he was hurt they would've been 4.5 games out, just won a series against the Cubs, and been 9-4 in the 13 games since the team stayed put at the trade deadline, and would be the closest to the division lead since the end of June. Maybe they still lose 3 of 4 in St. Louis anyways, but it would've been more momentum for them. Instead they didn't, he didn't, and somehow despite the Braves going 4-4 at home (with 4 games against the Marlins, and leading after 8 innings in 2 of the 4 games against the Rockies), and the Phillies going 3-4 at home (with 4 games against the Mets) this team still ended up losing a game and a half in the division. Absurd! As for how they can still win it?? Easy, they just have to finish no worse than 9-3 in the 12 remaining games against the Braves & Phillies which is no easy feat seeing as they just lost a home series to the freaking Marlins, haven't swept a series since the end of May, and will have to sweep at least one of those series. So, your saying there's a chance

As for how I'd rate disappointment in DC baseball wise from most disappointing to least disappointing.
2014: Had it all, had the bracket set up for a run through the NL as I believe they won the season series against every NL team. Tim Hudson said before the series we were lacking "balls" and sure enough he was right.
2018: Only reason it's not higher is because they aren't officially eliminated yet. When that expiration date comes (my guess: September 20 against the Mets) I'll rephrase this and 2018 will jump 2014.
*****drop off****
2015: Bryce had that MVP year, and we finally found out we were managed by a big idiot which saves it from the top. Other than that
***************big drop off*****************
2017: Virtually identical to the one I'm going to list right below this. Had a chance and probably should have won the NLDS, but had no chance to advance past the NLCS.
2016: Reason why this is slightly lower than 2016?? The late-season injuries to Stras & Wilson Ramos. That team definitely wasn't beating the Cubs that year, but with those 2 injuries I figured they'd lose to the Dodgers anyways, so it's not as painful.
***********another big drop off************
2012: Yes, game 5, 9th inning really sucked and I STILL hate Pete Kozma, but the overall wasn't bad. I figured they peaked a year or 2 early and they'd be right back in this same spot every year for the next 5 or 6 years and it was good to gain that experience. Little did I know the only thing they'd be gaining experience for is a worse way to lose a game 5.
2013: IIRC a lot of injuries that year and just came off the 2012 playoff run figuring they got overconfident. What I also vaguely remember about 2013 is they were like 10 games back of a playoff spot right around the beginning of August and made a great late season charge which fell about 4 or 5 games short if I remember.

So, there you have it. At least DC has the Capitals I guess??

3 games against the Phillies starting Tuesday, 3 games in Queens over the weekend. I am calling it now, lose 1 of these 3 games against the Phillies and the playoff odds will be 0%. This is the series we HAVE TO sweep as the other 3 are on the road.
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Old 08-21-2018, 01:47 AM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,541 posts, read 4,492,339 times
Reputation: 2477
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7express View Post
Well, they've got the 3 key relievers back for next year as Madson & Doo were both under contract and Kintzler re-upped with them, so I guess that's a start. They failed in the "one trade they should definitely make this winter" in Taylor to KC for Herrerra, bring Herrera here, and they don't have to rely on the starters as much as they did last year since this team will actually have competent relievers. As the Royals proved in 2015 (with a crappy rotation) that having a lockdown bullpen wins playoff series, and the more dominant relievers have, the better it is, and obviously as learned in kindergarten 4 is better than 3.

Replacing the manager was about the only major move they did over the winter as they subbed out a couple of bench pieces (Matt Adams for Adam Lind for example) and swapped relievers (Joe Blanton for Joaquin Benoit who comes to Washington 3 years too late [I was advocating for him in 2015 instead of cancer]) but nothing major. This division will be atrocious once again. The Mets & Phillies made a couple nice offseason moves, but it's not enough for the Phillies to make a dent in the standings, though they will definitely be improved, and the Mets guys are already getting hurt . Braves will be playing the kids for 2019 & 2020 while the Marlins will be lucky if they win 55 games while Jeter continues to dig their grave. Much like last year the division will probably be over by the All Star break as the Nats will set the Golden State Warriors cruise control on May 1 and sleep through the final 140 games of the season without a worry they'll get caught much less get passed! And because the division is so bad (again!) they'll never play an important game in the regular season, so when that important game comes in the playoffs, they'll get the deer-in-headlights look and once again lose in the first round, hopefully in less than 5 games and hopefully WITHOUT home field. As this franchise has proven homefield in baseball is almost worthless and it might actually be better to play a game 5 on the road.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7express View Post
I forgot to add what I expect, a best case scenario & worst case scenario:

Best case scenario: With a full season of Eaton, and a full season of the Kintzler, Madson & Doolittle law firm, the team doesn't skip a beat in a division that is still bad. The offense finally does enough in the playoffs to help the pitching and they advance to the NLCS and a game 7, where anything can happen.

Worst case scenario: The Braves, Phillies & especially the Mets are better than advertised and challenge for the division lead & wildcard, while even the Marlins have success against the Nats as the Nats are the only team they finish with a winning record against. In his first year as a MLB manager Dave Martinez is clueless and lost, and this turns into Matt Williams 2.0. They still have the talent to win the division, but they go out meekly in the NLDS once again.

What I expect: A lot more from the former paragraph than the latter. Braves, Phils, and Mets should all be better than they were last season, but it shouldn't be enough to catch the Nats in the division. As for the long playoff run who knows, but just make it out of the NLDS, please!

Yikes! That was awful!
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