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Old 10-07-2012, 04:16 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 50,376,134 times
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The cardinals have that......championship run look again.
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Old 10-07-2012, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Terrible bunt by Danny Espinosa.

With runners at 1st and 3rd with nobody out, trailing by 1 in the top of the 8th the Nats had a 55% chance of winning.
After the sacrifice they had only a 47% chance of winning.

The Win Probability Inquirer
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Old 10-07-2012, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,356,272 times
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Matheny continues to do everything humanly possible to lose games. Boggs got him all through September as his reliable 8-th inning man. He's given up one hit, but has two out after striking out Suzuki. But Matheny has to bring in Rzep, his LH specialist, to face a RH pihch hitter (did Matheny think the Nats would leave the LH hitter in there???). Highly predictable result, and Cards turn a win into a probably loss.

Matheny is playing against a catcher who has thrown out only 28% of runners in his career and 30% this year, but refused to even think about stealing a base. He had Jay (19 SB) with a lead off hit in the 7th, and Chambers as a pinch runner with none out in the 8th, both standing with both heels on first base.

Last edited by jtur88; 10-07-2012 at 04:49 PM..
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Old 10-07-2012, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Matheny continues to do everything humanly possible to lose games. Boggs got him all through September as his reliable 8-th inning man. He's given up one hit, but has two out after striking out Suzuki. But Matheny has to bring in Rzep, his LH specialist, to fact a RH pihch hitter (did Matheny think the Nats would leave the LH hitter in there???). Highly predictable result, and Cards turn a win into a probably loss.
This reminds me what the You Be the Manager thread was.

Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, down by 1, runners at 2nd and 3rd. Who do you send to the plate?

Batter A: .254 avg, 25 2B, 0 3B, 31 HR, 46 BB, 118 K's. .309 OBP, .429, SLG, 7.8% BB, 19.6% K's
Batter B: .247 avg, 30 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 63 BB, 104 K's. .324 OBP, .324 SLG, 10.5% BB, 17.4 %K's
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Old 10-07-2012, 04:46 PM
FBJ
 
Location: Tall Building down by the river
39,615 posts, read 50,376,134 times
Reputation: 9451
Well the Cards looked like they lost and will have to regroup
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Old 10-07-2012, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,356,272 times
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Further proof (if any is needed) that the 5th best team (just barely) in the league has no business stinking up the post season before a national TV audience. Nobody will ever criticize Matheny, all the commentators and analysts are ex-managers and they're the fraternity.
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Old 10-07-2012, 10:52 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,169 posts, read 18,614,349 times
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This weekend in Bay Area Baseball........................................





The 49ers won.
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Old 10-08-2012, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
This reminds me what the You Be the Manager thread was.

Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, down by 1, runners at 2nd and 3rd. Who do you send to the plate?

Batter A: .254 avg, 25 2B, 0 3B, 31 HR, 46 BB, 118 K's. .309 OBP, .429, SLG, 7.8% BB, 19.6% K's
Batter B: .247 avg, 30 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 63 BB, 104 K's. .324 OBP, .324 SLG, 10.5% BB, 17.4 %K's
No matter who the batter is, Matheny sends in Rzepczynski to pitch, instead of Boggs, because Rzep is LH.

As for your choices above, it wouldn't even matter if you send up Babe Ruth, because first base is open and they would walk him. Also, there is an important piece of data you left out. How many of the batters hits are outfield hits? It wouldn't be of much value to say all you need is a single to score both runners, if you hitter's singles are mostly beating out bunts and infield hits. I also don't know the pct. of outs made per PA, which would be a critical stat, as I don't want a hitter who will make the last out and end the game. As usual , a string of eleven comparative statistics is completely useless in evaluating the benefit of a hitter in a single, isolated instance.

Last edited by jtur88; 10-08-2012 at 08:42 AM..
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Old 10-08-2012, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,811,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
if you hitter's singles are mostly beating out bunts and infield hits.
What batter in the history of major league baseball does this describe? For the purpose of this exercise assume that 4% of both hitters' hits are of the infield variety.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
I also don't know the pct. of outs made per PA, which would be a critical stat, as I don't want a hitter who will make the last out and end the game.
1 - OBP gets you pretty close to the % of outs a player makes. The only difference would be double plays, and sac hits which are not applicable in this situation.

You've been given the information that you've asked for. Do you now have an answer? You have to send up a batter at some point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
As usual , a string of eleven comparative statistics is completely useless in evaluating the benefit of a hitter in a single, isolated instance.
ROFL...this from the guy who continually sites batting average as to the reason why every move LaRussa or Matheny makes is a bad one.

Maybe you should use this much depth of analysis when criticizing the moves that Matheny makes.
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Old 10-08-2012, 02:04 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,169 posts, read 18,614,349 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
What batter in the history of major league baseball does this describe? .
Brett Butler comes to mind. Didn't he set some sort of record for bunt hits when he was with the Dodgers? I watched him with the Giants for several years and I think he attempted about 50 bunt hits a season. My memory is that Otis Nixon used to try and get on by bunting all the time as well. I've no idea if such records are kept.
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