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Old 10-05-2012, 04:14 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,789,297 times
Reputation: 6636

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Cards come up with 3 runs.

Now have a 60ish percent chance of winning

The Win Probability Inquirer
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Old 10-05-2012, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,789,297 times
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Now Gonzalez with a decision.

One of the league's best bullpens, and the pitcher up with s out and runners at the corners.

The leverage index of that situation is over 2.



Let's him bat...

Strikes out. Opportunity wasted
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Old 10-05-2012, 04:47 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Holliday home run

Cards' WE almost 80%
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Old 10-05-2012, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Southern Willamette Valley, Oregon
6,837 posts, read 7,894,493 times
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I need a baseball buff to clue me in on something.

Why is the one playoff game between Texas and Baltimore being played in Texas? When two teams finish with the identical record, isn't each teams respective divisional winning percentage the next tie-breaker, or is that only in football? I was expecting this game to be played in Baltimore.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:00 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Crazy wind in Atlanta today. Balls are really carrying.





Quote:
Originally Posted by ditchlights View Post
I need a baseball buff to clue me in on something.

Why is the one playoff game between Texas and Baltimore being played in Texas? When two teams finish with the identical record, isn't each teams respective divisional winning percentage the next tie-breaker, or is that only in football? I was expecting this game to be played in Baltimore.
Let me google that for you
Quote:
1. Head-to-head winning percentage during the 2012 regular season.
2. Higher winning percentage in intradivision games.
3. Higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games.
4. Higher winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game, provided that such additional game was not between the two tied clubs. Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until the tie has been broken.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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3 innings to go.

Braves' chance to come back, about 15%
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Down by 2 with a runner at 3rd in a game that you have to win and you go to...


...Chad Durbin?
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Not the way Chipper would want to end his career. He made that costly throwing error and is zip for three at the plate so far. All in an elimination game for his team. He will get at least one more chance at redemption.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:14 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,789,297 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Big error on Chipper Jones. Cost the Braves at least 9 points of Win Expectancy

The Win Probability Inquirer
Dan Uggla's error to allow Freese to get to 2nd cost the Braves about 5% chance of winning.

The Andrelton Simmons bobble and error cost the Braves another 8%.

Yikes! And NOW Freeman and Venters botch a play at 1st. THAT play cost the Braves another 5%

Braves had the #1 defense in the NL coming into the game


Less than a 10% chance of the Braves coming back
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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The Cardinals have but four hits and zero walks, yet enjoy six runs.

Atlanta hasn't just made three errors, they have made sure that they were meaningful errors.
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