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Of course you have to score at least 1 run to push the game into extra innings.
Which group of 3 batters would your prefer to send into the batters box
Group A
Batting Average/On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage
.267/.318/.423 in 558 AB. 149 hits, 33 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 42 walks, 102 K
.240/.276/.319 in 572 AB. 137 hits, 20 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 28 BB, 83 K
.228/..261/.374 in 574 AB. 131 hits, 23 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 26 BB, 113 K
Group B
.195/.247/.362 in 562 AB. 110 hits, 49 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 38 BB, 137 K
.214/.257/.306 in 567 AB. 121 hits, 20 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 33 BB, 94 K
.199/.239/.348 in 570 AB. 113 hits, 29 2B, 0 3B, 19 HR, 30 BB, 129 K
You must send all 3 hitters up in that order
Assume no platoon advantage (lefty vs righty).
Assume no pitch advantage (pitcher's main pitch is a curve - hitter excels vs curves, etc)
Assume all players have the same speed.
Group A has a collective OPS of .657 compared to Group B's .586. However, the answer seems so obvious that I suspect that someone has figured a way to demonstrate that Group B is actually more likley to score that one run which is vital in the 9th.
Of course in real life there would be all sorts of added considerations...any of those players currently experiencing a hot streak? Any of them mired in slumps? Any of them been up most of the night before with a new baby in the house? Any of them nursing injuries which aren't severe enough to keep them from playing, but are bad enough to have an impact on performance? Any of them presently on my Ugly List for doing something which I thought had a negative impact on the team? Using which group will least cramp my flexibility options for later in the game if it goes extra innings?
Agreed - I'm looking at it thinking "What's the catch"
All things being equal it seems like Group A has the best chance of result
The only real thing that jumps out in Group B is the amount of doubles by the first hitter, which would put him into scoring position ... in fact 64 of his 110 hits would either tie the game or put the tying run in scoring position with no outs
I agree though, baseball isn't played in a vacuum so a lot of this is pretty difficult - I think you'd also have to look at fly out/ground out potential as well when a long fly out may tie the game and a soft grounder could be a crippling DP
Of course in real life there would be all sorts of added considerations...any of those players currently experiencing a hot streak? Any of them mired in slumps? Any of them been up most of the night before with a new baby in the house? Any of them nursing injuries which aren't severe enough to keep them from playing, but are bad enough to have an impact on performance? Any of them presently on my Ugly List for doing something which I thought had a negative impact on the team? Using which group will least cramp my flexibility options for later in the game if it goes extra innings?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Laker
I agree though, baseball isn't played in a vacuum so a lot of this is pretty difficult - I think you'd also have to look at fly out/ground out potential as well when a long fly out may tie the game and a soft grounder could be a crippling DP
Assume that all the information needed to make the decision has been presented.
Assume the players are exactly equal for any information that you are missing
Assume that all the information needed to make the decision has been presented.
Assume the players are exactly equal for any information that you are missing
On those assumptions, I send whichever group is currently hot. Only if neither group is performing significantly better at the time do I go by the season-long averages.
Even though B has the higher walk total, based on average and OBP percentage i'd have to go with A. Like someone else said, we don't know if someone is on a hot streak or a specific player has a good history or bad vs this specific pitcher.
Assume the players are exactly equal for any information you are missing.
This includes hot streaks, past success vs the pitcher, how well they perform after whatever activities they engaged in prior to the game, etc
Well, if we have such complete control over all possible outside influences, then I would simply run the two groups through a simulated inning a few thousand times and see which produced that needed run the most frequently.
If they're all equal but unknown, I still need to know whether they all stole 50 bases, of if they all run like Ron Karkovice. Or whether they can score on a shallow sac fly. Or whether they can outrun a DP relay.
In other words, I need to make a judgment using data that makes no reference to running speed, which is insufficient data.
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