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View Poll Results: Which player would you have hit?
Player 1 2 40.00%
Player 2 1 20.00%
Player 3 2 40.00%
Voters: 5. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-18-2012, 12:47 AM
 
Location: Arvada, CO
13,238 posts, read 24,433,481 times
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Player 1, because he is the most likely to put the ball in play.
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Old 10-18-2012, 02:48 AM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
12,201 posts, read 10,422,845 times
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I go for the guy who has the highest OBP with RISP.
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,022 posts, read 18,578,670 times
Reputation: 18680
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post




You've managed your current team for 4 years.
It's the World Series game 7.
You fate as a baseball manager depends upon it.


.
Oh, okay then, the decision becomes obvious.

If my career is on the line, then I of course will go into the self protective mode and send up batter # 3 because he is the one that the majority of the media and fans will perceive as the most appropriate and best hitter for that situation. That it may turn out that there is a way to calculate things so that an advantage is actually gained by using one of those other two hitters, is a secondary consideration because only a handful of sabermetric oriented observers will be aware of this.

If I sent up batter # 1 or # 2, with the seemingly superior choice of # 3 also available, and the result is an undesirable one, the next day I will be crucified in the media for my stupidity. If I send up # 3, even if he isn't really the best choice, and he fails, well, then I am crucified in obscurity by a community which is composed of people with an advanced understanding which eludes the public, but my job is most likely safe.
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:40 AM
 
Location: Houston
22,541 posts, read 11,603,779 times
Reputation: 9097
It is a no-brainer batter #3.
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Old 10-23-2012, 12:47 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,798,896 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
I'll promise I'll answer this one.

Here's the situation.

You're trailing by a run in the top of the ninth, runners at 1st and 2nd.

These are your three options to hit
Player 1: 560 AB, 132 H, 19 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 31 BB, 132 K's, .236 BA, .272 OBP, .323 SLG
Player 2: 538 AB, 131 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 45 BB, 147 K's, .242 BA, .312 OBP, .401 SLG
Player 3: 531 AB, 136 H, 35 2B, 2 3B, 29 HR, 62 BB, 162 K's, .256 BA, .335 OBP, .493 SLG

Who do you send up?

Assume no platoon advantage.
Assume for all information you are missing that the hitters are exactly equal.
The eagerly awaited answer.

Seems obvious that #3 is the best hitter. He gets hits more often. He makes outs less often and he hits for the most power.

This scenario was basically the decision that Joe Girardi had at the end of Game 3 between the Tigers and the Yankees.

Player #1 represented the combined seasonal data for Phil Coke and Raul Ibanez prorated to 600 PA's
Player #2 represented the combined seasonal data for Juaquin Benoit and A-Rod
Player #3 represented the combined seasonal data for Benoit and Nick Swisher.

In all 3 instances the platoon advantage/disadvantage was figured in. For example, in the Coke/Ibanez player I only included stats for each vs lefties.

Girardi, and two of you, decided that Ibanez was the best bet. I don't know how. He was the most likely to make an out and hits for the least power.

Of course, Ibanez had been huge just a few days earlier - smashing two dramatic home runs for the Yankees.

The first home run was a much different situation though. In that situation the left-handed Ibanez faced the right-handed Valverde. Ibanez is much better vs rights, and Valverde struggles vs lefties. Using the same method as above we get: 536 AB, 133 H, 29 2B, 6 3B, 25 HR, 59 BB, 85 Ks, .248 BA, .324 OBP, .465 SLG

Much different than his chances against Coke.

Of course, Ibanez also homered off the lefty Smyly. Sure. There's not a 0% chance that Ibanez will left a lefty, just much less of one.

With the Yankees' season on the line, Girardi made a decision that had a minimal chance of succeeding.
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Old 10-23-2012, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,022 posts, read 18,578,670 times
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I said # 3.


What do I win?
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,798,896 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I said # 3.


What do I win?
Well, you most likely still lost the game as Player #3 makes outs about twice as often as he reaches base.
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Old 10-23-2012, 12:21 PM
sun
 
Location: Central Connecticut
683 posts, read 1,965,103 times
Reputation: 443
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
With the Yankees' season on the line, Girardi made a decision that had a minimal chance of succeeding.
That's why the Yankee pay Girardi the big bucks.
Maybe he has a Ouji Board hidden under the bench.
Thanks for the fun exercise!
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