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Old 12-21-2012, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
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Pirates Seek To Negate Russell Martin's Skills at Pitch Framing and Throwing Out Opposing Basestealers By Signing Francisco Liriano For $14 Million.

Really, they could've had Lannan and Gorzellany and had another $1.5 mill leftover for more fireworks and at least three more concerts by washed-up 70s bands.
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Old 12-21-2012, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sskink View Post
Pirates Seek To Negate Russell Martin's Skills at Pitch Framing and Throwing Out Opposing Basestealers By Signing Francisco Liriano For $14 Million.

Really, they could've had Lannan and Gorzellany and had another $1.5 mill leftover for more fireworks and at least three more concerts by washed-up 70s bands.
Neither Lannan or Gorezellany has the up-side of Liriano.

Both of those guys are more consistent, but consistency isn't really going to help the Pirates. They need to gamble-Liriano is the gamble. The Pirates are hoping he can pullout a season like he did in 2006 or 2010.
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Old 12-21-2012, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Neither Lannan or Gorezellany has the up-side of Liriano.

Both of those guys are more consistent, but consistency isn't really going to help the Pirates. They need to gamble-Liriano is the gamble. The Pirates are hoping he can pullout a season like he did in 2006 or 2010.
Yeah, that's the common argument. Here's mine:
1) If you're going to spend $7 million on a risk, why not spend $15 million on an ace.
2) They have two rooks, Kyle McPherson, who should be a good bet for #4 and Locke as a replacement level #5. They are not giving up on James McDonald for better or worse. A Myers/Saunders type would bring some stability, upgrade the #5 slot and save the bullpen some innings. The Bucs defense is fairly solid up the middle, but they can't defend against Liriano's walks.
3) Gerrit Cole is likely to be up by July. They'll even have Charlie Morton in reserve at that point.
4) If you're going to spend $7 million on a risk, why not spend $15 million on an ace.
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Old 12-21-2012, 04:55 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sskink View Post
Yeah, that's the common argument. Here's mine:
1) If you're going to spend $7 million on a risk, why not spend $15 million on an ace.
1) Because $15 million is more than $7 million
2) Because there aren't a too many aces that could be had for $15 million.

Quote:
2) They have two rooks, Kyle McPherson, who should be a good bet for #4 and Locke as a replacement level #5. They are not giving up on James McDonald for better or worse. A Myers/Saunders type would bring some stability, upgrade the #5 slot and save the bullpen some innings. The Bucs defense is fairly solid up the middle, but they can't defend against Liriano's walks.
I don't understand what one point you're trying to make here.

Quote:
3) Gerrit Cole is likely to be up by July. They'll even have Charlie Morton in reserve at that point.
I don't know about 'likely'. 'Could be' might be the better word.
How does the Pirates staff shake out right now?
Burnett
Wandy
McDonald
Liriano
McPherson/Locke
Something like that?

Liriano is certainly better than McPherson, Locke and Morton, and with a lot more upside. If Cole is deemed ready, he replaces McPherson/Locke in the rotation.

I don't see the problem. Solid signing by the Pirates.
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Old 12-21-2012, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,655 posts, read 5,702,336 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
1) Because $15 million is more than $7 million
2) Because there aren't a too many aces that could be had for $15 million.

I don't understand what one point you're trying to make here.

I don't know about 'likely'. 'Could be' might be the better word.
How does the Pirates staff shake out right now?
Burnett
Wandy
McDonald
Liriano
McPherson/Locke
Something like that?

Liriano is certainly better than McPherson, Locke and Morton, and with a lot more upside. If Cole is deemed ready, he replaces McPherson/Locke in the rotation.

I don't see the problem. Solid signing by the Pirates.
Let me get this straight - you're saying that paying $7 million/year for a replacement level pitcher (or below) is a good deal when there were other guys (Saunders, Myers - even Pavano) who, for a one or two year deal, would provide some certainty for much less.

You want to talk upside? Liriano will be three years removed from his last decent season. His BB/9 has been more than 5 for three straight years. His mechanics and release points are all over the place. The guy is simply a train wreck at 29.

I'm also guessing you haven't seen McPherson pitch. He throws strikes.
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Old 12-21-2012, 08:36 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sskink View Post
Let me get this straight - you're saying that paying $7 million/year for a replacement level pitcher (or below)
I dispute that he's a replacement level pitcher

Last season:
His linedrive, groundball and flyball rates were all exactly league average.
His BB rate was a terrible 63% above league average
His K rate was an excellent 32% above league average.

The ERA estimator SIERA pegged him for a league average number of runs given up.


Quote:
is a good deal when there were other guys (Saunders, Myers - even Pavano) who, for a one or two year deal, would provide some certainty for much less.
What good does certainty give the Pirates?

My recent WAR projections (prior to the Lirano signign) put the Pirates in 4th place in the division about 10 games behind the Brewers and Reds and 15 games behind the Cardinals. What good is adding a consistent 2 WAR pitcher to the rotation going to do? With Liriano you get a guy who might give you 2 WAR, maybe 0 WAR, maybe 5 WAR. If he hits on the 5 WAR season and other things happen Pirates might sneak into the playoffs. Or they can move him at the deadline.

Quote:
You want to talk upside? Liriano will be three years removed from his last decent season. His BB/9 has been more than 5 for three straight years. His mechanics and release points are all over the place. The guy is simply a train wreck at 29.
You're going to ask what's the chance of Liriano being good. He's been in the league 6 seasons, 2 of them have been excellent. So a 33% chance?


Quote:
I'm also guessing you haven't seen McPherson pitch. He throws strikes.
Nope. Never seen him pitch. But looking over his stats he looks like he has a chance to be a big league starter. At least half of a season this year before the Pirates call up Cole - probably more than that.
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Old 12-22-2012, 06:45 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Stuff going on. Last minute Holiday Shopping


Mariners sign Raul Ibanez....meh...


Red Sox and Pirates trade
Red Sox get Joel Hanrahan, Pirates closer.
Pirates get 1B/OF Jerry Sands and P Stolmy Pimentel.
2 or 3 other players are also expected to be in the trade.
Don't get this trade for Boston. They have a full bullpen and Hanrahan isn't very good. None of the prospects going to Pittsburgh are great, but there's no real reason for this trade.


The Diamondbacks sign OF Cody Ross for 3 years and $26 million. Ross is a decent player, but the DBacks have a full OF already, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, Adam Eaton and Justin Upton. They'll certainly be trading someone or sometwo.
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Old 12-23-2012, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,784 posts, read 23,811,113 times
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A rare big dollar signing by the Cleveland Indians:

As first reported by beat writer Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, the Indians have signed free agent outfielder Nick Swisher to a four-year contract worth $56 million.

Indians sign Nick Swisher to four-year, $56 million contract | HardballTalk
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Old 01-01-2013, 10:00 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,784 posts, read 23,811,113 times
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And, the Indians have also now signed Brett Myers:

Indians sign RHP Brett Myers to one-year contract - MLB - SI.com
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Old 01-15-2013, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,797,161 times
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Rafael Soriano to the...


Nationals for 2 years and $28 million. The Nats' first round pick goes to the Yankees.


I wouldn't have made this move
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