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Old 01-22-2013, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,798,896 times
Reputation: 6637

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Phillies just signed Delmon Young

1 year and $750 K


Yuck.

Young has 1.4 WAR the last 3 seasons. About 1/2 a win per season.

He has .8 WAR in his career. About 0 WAR per season.

He's a career .317/.425 hitter
He's hitting .311/.435 over the last 3 seasons, exactly league average.

The average LF hit .326/.431 last year
The average RF hit .327/.434 last year

Young is below those marks and adds nothing on the bases (-6 runs since 2010) or defensively (-17 runs since 2010).

He CAN hit lefties.
.347/.500 the last 3 seasons which is 27% better than the league average.

If you squint, he could be useful platooning with Domonic Brown (though Brown probably deserves to play every day).

*Delmon Young's stats from FanGraphs
*League stats from Baseball-Reference
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Old 01-22-2013, 05:03 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,997 posts, read 18,578,670 times
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I like the Young deal with the Phillies. It means that Sabean won't be signing him.
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Old 01-24-2013, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
5,886 posts, read 4,190,531 times
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Quote:
The Atlanta Braves have agreed to a trade to acquire outfielder Justin Upton and third baseman Chris Johnson from the Arizona Diamondbacks for pitcher Randall Delgado, infielder Martin Prado and minor leaguers Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury and Zeke Spruill, sources tell ESPN.
The deal is pending physicals by players involved.
The deal would unite Upton with his older brother, B.J. Upton, who signed as a free agent with Atlanta this winter. After signing, B.J. Upton said he wanted to play with this brother in the same outfield.
The Atlanta Braves have acquired Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks - sources - ESPN

ALL DA UPTONS! Good day to be a Braves fan.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,798,896 times
Reputation: 6637
Not sure why everyone thinks this is such a huge upgrade for Atlanta.
Yes, Upton has the higher upside but:
Upton 2012: .355/.430 2.5 WAR
Prado 2012: .359/.438 5.9 WAR

Upton 2010-2012: .361/.469 11.9 WAR
Prado 2010-2012: .339/.428 11.8 WAR

ZiPS for 2013
Upton: .348/.447 3.1 WAR
Prado: .339/.434 3.3 WAR

These two are a lot closer than people think.
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Old 01-25-2013, 03:41 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas
5,886 posts, read 4,190,531 times
Reputation: 4161
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Not sure why everyone thinks this is such a huge upgrade for Atlanta.
Yes, Upton has the higher upside but:
Upton 2012: .355/.430 2.5 WAR
Prado 2012: .359/.438 5.9 WAR

Upton 2010-2012: .361/.469 11.9 WAR
Prado 2010-2012: .339/.428 11.8 WAR

ZiPS for 2013
Upton: .348/.447 3.1 WAR
Prado: .339/.434 3.3 WAR

These two are a lot closer than people think.
Yes but Upton is 4 years younger, under team control for 3 years, and has more pop than Prado. Plus Upton's glove > Prado's. Prado is a free agent at the end of the year and was asking in the neighborhood of 5/60 million which we can't afford if we want to extend Heyward, Medlen, and start looking at extending Freeman, etc.

Sure we gambled a bit and traded production for potential but that production was probably gone after this year. We got Upton for very little outside of Prado. If Upton pans out this trade was a huge win for the Braves...if he Uggla's it then it's not but I like the move.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:12 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,997 posts, read 18,578,670 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12 View Post
Plus Upton's glove > Prado's. .
The data does not support that. In 731 games Upton has compiled compiled -1.4 defensive WAR. The only year of his career when he was defensively above replacement level was 2011 when he had 0.2 defensive WAR.

In 683 career games Prado has earned 3.8 defensive WAR, his last three seasons being 1.3, 1.0 and 1.7.

Data is from Baseball Reference.
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Old 01-26-2013, 04:49 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas
5,886 posts, read 4,190,531 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The data does not support that. In 731 games Upton has compiled compiled -1.4 defensive WAR. The only year of his career when he was defensively above replacement level was 2011 when he had 0.2 defensive WAR.

In 683 career games Prado has earned 3.8 defensive WAR, his last three seasons being 1.3, 1.0 and 1.7.

Data is from Baseball Reference.
I knew as soon as I posted that someone was going to spew the stats at me but I guess it's my fault I wasn't clear about what I really meant. Upton's range > Prado's. I like advanced metrics with offensive stats but I feel as though they fall short defensively. Prado has a good glove but he's SLOW and a lot got past him in the OF. I'd rather have Upton in LF than Prado. But it doesn't really matter we didn't acquire Upton for his defensive prowess.

As it is the rest of my point stands.
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Old 01-26-2013, 05:20 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,997 posts, read 18,578,670 times
Reputation: 18678
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12 View Post
Upton's range > Prado's. .
The data does not support that either. The data, which I wasn't aware I had "spewed" at you, tells us that Prado has been a pretty valuable defender and Upton a below average one. If Upton has superior range, why isn't he converting balls hit toward him into outs more frequently than Prado rather than less frequently?
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,798,896 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12 View Post
Yes but Upton is 4 years younger, under team control for 3 years, and has more pop than Prado. Plus Upton's glove > Prado's. Prado is a free agent at the end of the year and was asking in the neighborhood of 5/60 million which we can't afford if we want to extend Heyward, Medlen, and start looking at extending Freeman, etc.
According to Cot's
Upton is due to make $38.5 million over the next 3 seasons
Prado is due to make $28 million over the next 3 seasons and $39 million over the next 4.

I don't see how keeping Prado instead of Upton would have prevented the Braves from signing any other players.
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,798,896 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthGAbound12 View Post
I knew as soon as I posted that someone was going to spew the stats at me but I guess it's my fault I wasn't clear about what I really meant. Upton's range > Prado's. I like advanced metrics with offensive stats but I feel as though they fall short defensively. Prado has a good glove but he's SLOW and a lot got past him in the OF. I'd rather have Upton in LF than Prado. But it doesn't really matter we didn't acquire Upton for his defensive prowess.

As it is the rest of my point stands.
According to UZR,
As an OFer Upton is 2 runs above average per 150 games. This is based on 6100 innings
As an OFer Prado is 13 runs above average per 150 games. This is based on 1800 innings

Even if we regress Prado at a league average rate for an extra 4300 innings, it's hard to say that Upton is better than Prado.

Now, Upton's range rating leads Prado's 32 to 6.
But Prado's arm rating leads Upton's 11 to -12
and Prado's error rating leads Upton's -1 to -11



But you don't like defensive metrics

How about Tom Tango's fan scouting?
Justin Upton rated a 3.58 on a scale of 1 to 5
Martin Prado rated a 3.91 on the same scale

I see no evidence that Upton is significantly better defensively than Prado.

Last edited by filihok; 02-09-2013 at 01:02 PM..
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