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Old 12-04-2012, 10:43 PM
 
Location: Lewes, Delaware
3,466 posts, read 3,151,065 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Shane Victorino signs with the Red Sox for 3 years and $39 million
Angel Pagan signs with the Giants for 4 years and $40 million

Victorino is 7 months older than Pagan.

Bill James projects:
Victorino for .338/.418 (OBP/SLG)
Pagan for .332/.403
in 2013. Close enough to identical.

Both are roughly average defensive centerfielders.

The look to be very similar players going forward. The Giants got a free year of Pagan in comparison to Victorino.
The Indians offered 4 years 44 million to Victorino.
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Old 12-04-2012, 11:25 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Scutaro back to the Giants for 3 years and $20 million.

He would have been a good fit for the Yankees who have questions at both SS and 3B.
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Old 12-05-2012, 07:08 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,033 posts, read 18,583,829 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Scutaro back to the Giants for 3 years and $20 million.

He would have been a good fit for the Yankees who have questions at both SS and 3B.
What do the projections forecast for Scutaro's future production? The Giants hit the jackpot by getting him last season just in time for the hottest performance stretch of his career.
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Old 12-05-2012, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
What do the projections forecast for Scutaro's future production? The Giants hit the jackpot by getting him last season just in time for the hottest performance stretch of his career.
Scutaro hit .385/.473 as a Giant last season and .324/.361 with the Rockies. He finished at .348/.405 overall.

Bill James' projections have him at .344/.378 next year. James' projections tend to run 'optimistic'.

He's been a 2 - 3 WAR player over the last 5 years. He'll probably produce to his contract on the field, it looks like the Giants may have gone over market though.
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Old 12-05-2012, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,033 posts, read 18,583,829 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post

He's been a 2 - 3 WAR player over the last 5 years. He'll probably produce to his contract on the field, it looks like the Giants may have gone over market though.
Thanks.....I was looking at it as overpaying slightly, but if Scutaro stabilizes the position for a few years, it won't be a bad deal.

For position players the Giants have been better at catching lightning in a bottle, as in signings which were of the "take a non costly risk" variety, (Burrell, Ross, the first Huff signing, Scutaro) than they have been with the costly or longer term deals for "established" veterans (Rowand, Tejada, Renteria, Freddy Sanchez, the second Huff signing et al.)

But I don't suppose that you can base your team assembly approach on counting on getting lucky with your "Let's see if he has anything left in the tank" method.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Last day of the winter meetings. Lots of stuff going on.

2 Big deals involving the Phillies.
First, they traded pitcher Vance Worley to the Twins for OF Ben Revere.
Worley's been discussed here at CD. He's produced about 5 WAR in just under 2 seasons of playing time. He doesn't hit much (about 20% worse than the league average hitter), but plays excellent defense. Worley has also been worth between 4.5 and 5 WAR (harder to nail down pitchers than hitters) in roughly the same amount of time. With both having about the same amount of service time they should be paid similarly going forward. Revere might command a bit less salary as defense is still underrated when it comes to paychecks.

The Phils are also rumored to be near a trade for Texas' Michael Young. Young's been a very consistent player averaging between 2.5 and 4.5 WAR for most of his career. He was terrible last year though, providing negative WAR. A lot of that was due to BABIP (.299 compared to .330 career) so I'd expect a bounce back. He's not a great player, but he's probably fine for 1 year at third for the Phillies.


The Rays and Royals may also be working on a trade. The Royals may have offered #1 prospect OFer Wil Myers for James Shields. The Royals are desperate for pitching, but this would be a terrible trade for them. Shields is an excellent pitcher producing well over 4 WAR per season over the last 6 seasons. He's also on a friendly contract paying him just $21 million for the next 2 seasons. It's likely Shields will produce something like 9 WAR (4.5 WAR per season) while earning that $21 million. That's a rate of just over $2 million per WAR ($21/9). The market rate $/WAR is somewhere between $5 and $6 million per WAR. Shields is a bargain. The trouble is that the Royals' young players should starting hitting their peaks in the next 1 to 2 seasons, just as Shields would be leaving as a free agent. It doesn't make sense to acquire him now. Also, Myers is an outstanding prospect. He's good enough defensively to play CF for a couple of years, but will likely play either LF or RF where he'd be well above average defensively. Plus he can really hit. He was 116% better than the average AA hitter last year. He's almost guaranteed to be a 2 WAR player and likely more than that. At the league minimum salary he would earn for the next 3 years he's much more valuable than Shields.
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Old 12-06-2012, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Last day of the winter meetings. Lots of stuff going on.

2 Big deals involving the Phillies.
First, they traded pitcher Vance Worley to the Twins for OF Ben Revere.
Worley's been discussed here at CD. He's produced about 5 WAR in just under 2 seasons of playing time. He doesn't hit much (about 20% worse than the league average hitter), but plays excellent defense. Worley has also been worth between 4.5 and 5 WAR (harder to nail down pitchers than hitters) in roughly the same amount of time. With both having about the same amount of service time they should be paid similarly going forward. Revere might command a bit less salary as defense is still underrated when it comes to paychecks.
Apparently Phillies' pitching prospect Trevor May was also included in the deal. Now I think the deal certainly skews in the Twins' favor.

This video of Revere somersaulting his way into a triple is also making the rounds.
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Old 12-07-2012, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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DBacks sign Brandon McCarthy for 2 years and $15 million.

Look for them to deal Justin Upton and a young pitcher (Trevor Bauer) to Texas soon for either Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar.
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Old 12-07-2012, 04:37 PM
 
Location: Frisco, TX
7,559 posts, read 11,899,990 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
for either elvis andrus or jurickson profar.
nooooooo!!!!!!
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Old 12-08-2012, 01:34 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,800,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
The Phils are also rumored to be near a trade for Texas' Michael Young. Young's been a very consistent player averaging between 2.5 and 4.5 WAR for most of his career. He was terrible last year though, providing negative WAR. A lot of that was due to BABIP (.299 compared to .330 career) so I'd expect a bounce back. He's not a great player, but he's probably fine for 1 year at third for the Phillies.
This deal's done. The Rangers send Young and $10 million to Philadelphia (Philadelphia will pay $6 million for Young) for a couple of relievers, Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla.

Seems like a fair trade for both teams and Young. The Rangers didn't need Young anymore. The Phillies needed a third baseman. And Young is good enough to be a starter and not just a bench guy.

Lindblom is a former Dodger reliever (was traded to Philadelphia for Shane Victorino). He's a back of the bullpen guy. Nothing special. Bonilla is a high-strikeout high-walk minor league reliever. He's got some potential but is definitely not a sure thing.
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