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Ned Colletti signed OFer Juan Rivera to a 1 year deal worth $4 million with a team option for $4 million or a $500K buy out. That breaks down to 1 year $4.5 million or 2 years $8 million.
Walt Jocketty signed OFer Ryan Ludwick to a 1 year deal worth $2.5 million with $500K in incentives plus a mutual option for 2013.
FanGraphs includes a number of well-known projections systems on their player pages. Let's look at what those projection systems have to say about these two players.
First, Rivera
Taking the average of both systems we get Rivera projected to hit:
.260/.321/.404 for a .317 wOBA
Both players played for 2 organizations last year and will have 2 sets of ratings (1 from each team)
The Toronto fans rated Juan Rivera a 25 on a scale of 1 to 100
The LA fans rated Rivera a 40.
That's a 33 average
Padres fans rated Ryan Ludwick a 39
While Pirates fans rated Ludwick a 44
That's a 42 average.
So, of course, Ned pays $1.5 million more for the ever so slightly worse player.
My main man Ned signed starting pitcher Chris Capuano to a 2 year $10 million deal with an option for a 3rd year at $ 8 million.
Capuano is coming off of this season with the New York Mets
31 starts, 186 innings, 4.55 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.84 tERA, 3.60 SIERA and 1.6 WAR
Jeff Francis just signed a minor league deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Francis did this last year.
31 starts, 183 innings, 4.82 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, 4.36 tERA, 4.46 SIERA and 2.6 WAR
3 different projection systems project Capuano for the following:
9 - 9 record, 167 innings 4.37 ERA
Those same 3 projections systems project Francis for the following:
8 - 9 record, 157 innings, 4.49 ERA
Nearly identical pitchers. One, signed by Ned, signs for $10 million. The other, not signed by Ned, signs a minor league deal.
El Ned signed starter Aaron Harang for 2 years and $12 million.
He's projected for the following:
8 - 9 134 innings, 4.31 ERA
These 4 pitchers signed for less than $10 million combined
Paul Maholm: 8 - 9 159 innings, 4.23 ERA. Signed a 1 year deal for $4.5 million
Jason Marquis: 8 - 8 129 innings, 4.33 ERA. Signed a 1 year deal for $3 million
Joel Piniero: 8 - 9 141 innings, 4.29 ERA. Signed a minor league deal
Aaron Cook: 4 - 5 88 innings, 4.69 ERA. Signed a minor league deal
Keep an eye on Edwin Jackson: 12 - 10 202 innings, 3.96 ERA. Hasn't signed yet.
We're about 70 games into the season so it's a perfect time to take a look back at how Ned has done and how I might have done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
Ned Colletti signed OFer Juan Rivera to a 1 year deal worth $4 million with a team option for $4 million or a $500K buy out. That breaks down to 1 year $4.5 million or 2 years $8 million.
Walt Jocketty signed OFer Ryan Ludwick to a 1 year deal worth $2.5 million with $500K in incentives plus a mutual option for 2013.
So, of course, Ned pays $1.5 million more for the ever so slightly worse player.
Through about 70 games:
Juan Rivera is close to an everyday player for LA compiling 139 plate appearances. He did spend some time on the DL. Thus far he's hit .288/.364 which is about 30% worse than an average player. Factoring in average to poor defense Rivera has been about a replacement level player.
Ryan Ludwick has hit a similarish number of times, 187 plate appearances. So far he's hitting .305/.461 which is just a tick above average. Again factoring in average to poor defense Ludwick has been worth around a win.
Thus far Ludwick has been substantially more productive for less money.
Updated ZiPS projections (which factor in information from this season) have:
Rivera hitting about .320/.400 for the rest of the year.
and Ludwick checking in at .320/.437
My main man Ned signed starting pitcher Chris Capuano to a 2 year $10 million deal with an option for a 3rd year at $ 8 million.
Capuano is coming off of this season with the New York Mets
31 starts, 186 innings, 4.55 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.84 tERA, 3.60 SIERA and 1.6 WAR
Jeff Francis just signed a minor league deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Francis did this last year.
31 starts, 183 innings, 4.82 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, 4.36 tERA, 4.46 SIERA and 2.6 WAR
3 different projection systems project Capuano for the following:
9 - 9 record, 167 innings 4.37 ERA
Those same 3 projections systems project Francis for the following:
8 - 9 record, 157 innings, 4.49 ERA
Nearly identical pitchers. One, signed by Ned, signs for $10 million. The other, not signed by Ned, signs a minor league deal.
So how are Capuano and Francis doing?
Capuano has pitched very well for LA. Capuano has made 14 starts and is 8-2 with an ERA below 3. But, those stats don't tell the whole story, of course. Capuano has struck out 23% of the batters that he's faced (a career best) while walking about 9% (his highest rate since 2005). His strike out, walk and batted ball rates suggest a pitcher who should be giving up around 3.8 runs per 9 innings. Capuano's been worth just about a win.
Francis started the year in the minors and was recently called up to pitch for Colorado. He's made 3 starts and is 0 - 1 with an ERA around 9. Again, those numbers don't mean much. Francis is striking out just 9% of batters while walking 6%. His strength is in getting groundballs, which he has done about 47% of the time. His batted ball rates say he should be giving up about 4.5 runs per 9 innings. Francis' 3 starts have netted him a portion of a win.
Updated ZiPS for Capuano have him giving up about 4 runs per 9 the rest of the season while dropping his walk and K rates.
Updated ZiPS for Francis have him giving up about 4.25 runs per 9 while improving his K rated and walking a few more batters.
Capuano has pitched much better than I expected.
Still, the difference in salaries may have allowed Ned to upgrade the team in other areas (left field?) and the flexibility next year might come in handy with Nate Eovaldi and Rubby de la Rosa almost certainly being ready for rotation spots.
El Ned signed starter Aaron Harang for 2 years and $12 million.
He's projected for the following:
8 - 9 134 innings, 4.31 ERA
These 4 pitchers signed for less than $10 million combined
Paul Maholm: 8 - 9 159 innings, 4.23 ERA. Signed a 1 year deal for $4.5 million
Jason Marquis: 8 - 8 129 innings, 4.33 ERA. Signed a 1 year deal for $3 million
Joel Piniero: 8 - 9 141 innings, 4.29 ERA. Signed a minor league deal
Aaron Cook: 4 - 5 88 innings, 4.69 ERA. Signed a minor league deal
Keep an eye on Edwin Jackson: 12 - 10 202 innings, 3.96 ERA. Hasn't signed yet.
Lastly, Aaron Harang.
Harang is 5 - 4 with an ERA of 3.76. He's made 14 starts. Harang has struck out 19% of batters as he has throughout his career, but is walking 10% of batters (7% career). His batted ball rates are all close to his career averages and he pitching like a pitcher we'd expect to give up a bit over 4 runs per 9 innings. Harang has been worth 1 win by fWAR.
Paul Maholm has made 13 starts for the Cubs and is 4-5 4.88. He striking out 16% of hitters (a bit over his average) and walking 7% (right at his average). He's getting a few more ground balls than usual and pitching like a pitcher we'd expect to give up close to 4.5 runs per 9. That's good for about half of a win.
Jason Marquis spent a bit of time on the DL to start the season, but has made 10 starts and is 3-6 with a 6.08 ERA. Marquis is pitching almost exactly to his career averages of 13% strike outs and 9% walks. He's getting a lot of ground balls and 'should' be giving up around 5 runs per 9 innings. That's not good, costing the cubs about a third of a win.
Aaron cook pitched very well in the minors, but had a disastrous major league start. He pitched terribly and was injured.
Joel Piniero is currently pitching in the minor leagues attempting to comeback from injury.
Edwin Jackson is a part of the best rotation in the major leagues - that of the Washington Nationals. E-Jax has made 13 starts with an ERA of right at 3. Jackson has K'd about 18% of hitters while walking 7% (both better than his career numbers). Jackson's batted ball rates are those of a pitcher who gives up a touch less than 4 runs per 9 innings. Jackson has been worth 1.3 fWAR.
Harang is projected to give up a tad over 4 runs per 9 the rest of the season, compared to:
4.15 for Maholm
4.57 for Marquis
Cook's status is uncertain
4.25 for Piniero
3.75 for Jackson
Harang is pitching better than any of the players that I suggested (excluding Jackson), but at a much higher cost plus a roster spot next season. The difference between Harang's performance and Maholm's doesn't justify an extra $8 million.
I'm happy with Capuano. He was supposed to be a #5 pitcher, but he's been their best or second-best so far.
Rivera has been better than I expected, but with Abreu, Gwynn, and Herrera all available, he isn't really needed. I don't like to see him playing at first base and Loney on the bench.
I'm happy with Capuano. He was supposed to be a #5 pitcher, but he's been their best or second-best so far.
Pretty obvious that Kershaw is the best pitcher on the team. Capuano has been good though.
Quote:
Rivera has been better than I expected, but with Abreu, Gwynn, and Herrera all available, he isn't really needed. I don't like to see him playing at first base and Loney on the bench.
Having a right-handed bat doesn't hurt since none of Loney, Ethier or Gwynn can hit lefties.
Are you going to do Uribe?[/quote]
Do what to Uribe?
Well, I thought you'd understand it in context. Oh, well. Whatever you want, I guess.
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to take a look back at how Ned has done and how I might have done.
