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Old 01-12-2013, 12:28 PM
 
8 posts, read 9,358 times
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Is anyone else excited about the Opening Day for Brewers April 1st??? I am sooooo anxious to see them play ball again!!! Especially Ryan Braun!!!
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Old 01-19-2013, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Mequon, WI
7,858 posts, read 19,649,712 times
Reputation: 4478
Countdown to Apr 1, 2013 1:00 PM in Milwaukee
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Old 03-27-2013, 09:12 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,853,834 times
Reputation: 6637
Quote:
Originally Posted by Milwaukee City View Post
I guess this is the best thread for this

Filihok: Contract Analysis: Kyle Lohse

Quote:
Kyle Lohse finally signed a contract - with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Was it a good deal?

Projections available on FanGraphs have Lohse pitching 185 innings this year with 5.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.83 ERA and 2.9 WAR.

Given that Lohse is 34 we can apply the standard aging decline of 0.5 WAR per season. Doing so we get:
2013 2.9 WAR
2014 2.4 WAR
2015 1.9 WAR
TOTAL 7.2 WAR

Lohse will be paid $33 million over that time, however due to the deferment of some of the money the actual present value of his contract is $31.95 million.
*source

It's generally accepted that the current value of 1 WAR is $5 million. If we apply 5% inflation then the total value of the WAR that Lohse is expected to provide is:
2013 2.9 WAR * $5 = $14.5
2014 2.4 WAR * ($5*1.05) = $12.6
2015 1.9 WAR *($5*1.05*1.05) = $10.5
TOTAL $37.6 million

Lohse's expected production outweighs his cost by about $5.5 million.

There's also the loss of the draft pic. According to this research, the average value of the #17 pick is around $5 million - almost the exact amount of the difference between Lohse's cost and expected production.

Purely on cost, this looks like a reasonable deal.



FanGraphs recently released their Positional Power Rankings for 2013. Those rankings had the Brewers #25 in starting pitching with 10.4 total WAR. Inserting Lohse into the equation gives us:
Gallardo 199 IP 3.7 WAR
Estrada 187 IP 2.9 WAR
Lohse 185 IP 2.9 WAR
Fiers 136 IP 1.7 WAR
Narveson 122 IP 1.1 WAR
Peralta 40 IP 0.3 WAR
Rogers 25 IP 0.2 WAR
TOTAL 894 IP 12. 8 WAR

That's an increase in 2.4 WAR for the rotation, which would bump the Brewers up to 18th in starting pitching WAR.

Adding all the position player WAR and pitcher WAR together gives us some idea how teams will finish the season.

Using FanGraph's numbers the expected WAR for each AL Central team is:
Reds 44.7
Cardinals 42.8
Brewers 39.9
Pirates 39
Cubs 38.9

The acquisition of Lohse moves the Brewers from last in the division to 3rd. More importantly, less than 5 WAR behind the Reds for first in the division. 5 WAR is close enough that random variation gives the Brewers a reasonable chance of winning the division.

My own projections have the division as:
Cardinals 42 WAR
Reds 40.5 WAR
Brewers 38.3 WAR
Pirates 31.8 WAR
Cubs 29.3 WAR

This move isn't a world beater for the Brewers. They paid market value for a decent pitcher that will push them that much closer to competing for the division or one of the wild card spots.

Last edited by filihok; 03-27-2013 at 09:32 AM..
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Old 07-22-2013, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,798 posts, read 26,368,130 times
Reputation: 14611
Brewers' Ryan Braun suspended for rest of season
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:19 PM
 
364 posts, read 460,548 times
Reputation: 530
Quote:
Originally Posted by BucFan View Post


Braun is a scumbag, and his punishment isn't nearly enough. Banned from baseball would be more like it, and the same goes for all others who've had a brush with PEDs. This guy bet his life last year that PEDs had never entered his body. Think he'll pay up?

No, he'll just carry out his little slap on the wrist, MLB will continue to act like they're doing something about this issue, and meanwhile, Braun will continue to collect 100 million dollars and laugh all the way to the bank.

The message sent is "it's okay to cheat, kids, as long as you aren't caught." He isn't sorry. He's sorry he was discovered, same as all cheaters.
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Old 07-23-2013, 04:42 AM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,798 posts, read 26,368,130 times
Reputation: 14611
I really dislike people that cheat in their sport (Braun, Rodriguez, Lance Armsrtong) -
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:00 PM
 
880 posts, read 1,762,962 times
Reputation: 624
Braun and rodriguez should be thrown out of the baseball union .these scumbags preyed on fellow union members {PITCHERS] to get big contracts while pitchers ERA.innings pitch, ETC,were inflated by these guys.Every pitcher who feels these scumbags caused them money should throw a 95 MPH fast ball at there head
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Hometown of Jason Witten
5,985 posts, read 3,749,606 times
Reputation: 1915
Quote:
Originally Posted by countrygirl2013 View Post
Is anyone else excited about the Opening Day for Brewers April 1st??? I am sooooo anxious to see them play ball again!!! Especially Ryan Braun!!!
I wish we'd never see him play again. Or A-Roid or any of the other lying, cheating scumbags.
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:28 PM
 
Location: IL
2,992 posts, read 4,440,141 times
Reputation: 3085
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liquid Sword View Post


Banned from baseball would be more like it, and the same goes for all others who've had a brush with PEDs.
Should we clean out the Hall of Fame, too? The ranks will be getting thin in the Hall...
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,588 posts, read 18,717,898 times
Reputation: 18838
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost3am View Post
Should we clean out the Hall of Fame, too? The ranks will be getting thin in the Hall...
Who is currently enshrined that you know was a PEDs user?
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