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Old 03-25-2013, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,896,623 times
Reputation: 6637

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Filihok: Har-ap-illy Ever After? Dodger Rotation Candidates

Quote:
I decided to take a look at some of the guys fighting for...what are they fighting for? I was going to say they were fighting for rotation spots with the Dodgers this season, but they really aren't. The Dodgers' 1 through 5 will almost certainly be:
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Chad Billingsley
Josh Beckett

That still leaves Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly with no real defined roles.

FanGraphs provides multiple projections for most players who have a shot of playing in the majors this year. I've done a weighted average of those projections for each of the above 3 players

Harang: 151 innings, 6.61 K/9, 3.54 BB/9, 4.31 ERA and 0.9 WAR (1.3 WAR per 180 IP)
Capuano: 168 innings, 7.41 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 3.83 ERA and 2.2 WAR (2.4 WAR per 180 IP)
Lilly: 120 innings, 6.96 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 3.87 ERA and 0.7 WAR (1.1 WAR per 180 IP)

Capuano is certainly the best of the bunch. As such, he's the one you'd most want to keep around. As such, he's the one with the most trade value. He's also likely the best option out of the bullpen. His health maybe of some concern. He has a sordid injury history.

Harang doesn't look to be anything special. But he's healthy. If any of the Dodgers top 5 starters go down with injury (and simple probability tells us that they will. Not to mention that Billingsley's elbow is hanging by a thread and Beckett's back is constantly balky (plus Kershaw had hip issues at the end of last year and Greinke's having elbow problems this spring)) then having a healthy pitcher to replace them with could be a bonus.

Lilly isn't a bad pitcher when healthy. But his arm appears to be pretty shredded. You wouldn't want to have to rely on Lilly after already losing a top starter. His control/fly ball/crafty-lefty ways probably aren't best suited to the bullpen.

Spring training stats are mostly meaningless, but let's look at them anyway:
Capuano's managed 15 innings with 3 walks and 14 strike outs. That's not bad. 5 home runs, though, have pushed his spring ERA up to 7.20.

Harang has pitched 13 and a third innings with 5 walks and 8 strike outs. That's not good. It's not horrific, though. He's given up 24 hits - that's close to horrific - and 8.10 ERA.

Lilly's only managed 6 and two thirds innings this spring with 5 walks and 5 strike outs. That's bad. The 11 hits, 7 earned runs and 9.45 ERA are bad as well.


I don't pretend to have any idea what LA will decide to do with these guys. Likely an "injury" to a pitcher or two will appear before the season starts so the Dodgers can put a guy on the DL for a few weeks - buying a bit more time to make a decision.
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Old 03-27-2013, 11:48 AM
 
1,924 posts, read 1,995,819 times
Reputation: 1202
Dodgers should never have left Vero Beach. Now they have to deal with the Curse of Charlie Golnick, the long-time lifeguard who oversaw everything between the Breezeway and the Driftwood Inn. Hanley was just the beginning...
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Old 03-28-2013, 06:54 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,206,086 times
Reputation: 7282
Salt River Park is a gem. Saw the last 2 games there, and while I enjoyed the games at Phoenix Muni & Scottsdale, Salt River is head and shoulders first class.

321,396 was Salt's attendence this year..very impressive.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:13 PM
 
Location: Arizona
6,031 posts, read 5,415,477 times
Reputation: 18353
Watched the Indians/Padres in Peoria today. My last game is Saturday Reds/Indians. I will miss spring training. Extended Spring Training starts in about 3 weeks. Then rookie league and then instructional league, and then Arizona Fall League. Moving from Ohio to Arizona is working out pretty good for this Indians fan. Ex,rook, and instruct are free and AFL is cheap. Might get to a few Diamondbacks games too.
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Old 03-28-2013, 07:50 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
42,041 posts, read 18,826,629 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Why spring training records are mostly useless


.
You have that to console you. The hyper expensive Dodgers have the second worst spring record in MLB, 11-19 now after dropping their last four in a row. The only team with a worse record is the not as hyper but still quite expensive Angels who are 9-18.

And the Royals continue to warm up for their romp through the AL Central this year, leading all teams with a 24-7 record.
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Old 03-29-2013, 12:18 PM
 
9,035 posts, read 16,547,856 times
Reputation: 6832
Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkalot View Post
Watched the Indians/Padres in Peoria today. My last game is Saturday Reds/Indians. I will miss spring training. Extended Spring Training starts in about 3 weeks. Then rookie league and then instructional league, and then Arizona Fall League. Moving from Ohio to Arizona is working out pretty good for this Indians fan. Ex,rook, and instruct are free and AFL is cheap. Might get to a few Diamondbacks games too.
Yeah - hard to go wrong here as a baseball fan .... throw in that ASU typically has a top tier college team and it's not unusual to get at least some regional play out here to go with the regular schedule there is no shortage of opportunities to watch the game in many different formats
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Old 03-31-2013, 07:09 PM
 
Location: Northern Arizona
1,248 posts, read 3,101,682 times
Reputation: 629
I live in Flagstaff and now that the Reds are in Arizona, usually try to go to at least one game every year, but I hate the newer spring training parks. Salt River Field is nice...but way too opulent for a facility that's used only a couple times a year with any regularity (Spring Training and Arizona Fall League). The Cubs are getting a new place built after holding the City of Mesa hostage (the Rickett family threatened to move to Florida if the city didn't build them a new park), despite the fact that their current facility is only 16 years old. I enjoy going to places like Tempe Diablo and Phoenix Municipal where the atmosphere is a lot more intimate as opposed to newer parks like Salt River Field and Camelback Ranch. Then again, I've b*tched before about the lack of emphasis on the game in newer ballparks (both Spring Training and MLB facilities) so I'm probably on the wrong side of history...

Also, I understand the Indians coming back to Arizona given their historical ties to the Cactus League (and the fact that there's a significant Northeastern Ohio transplant population in Phoenix), but aside from money, why are the Reds here? I know of only three or four people who actively try to go to games in Goodyear (which is a terrible park in a terrible location) to see the Reds. More often than not, the stands are filled with more fans of the opposing teams. Cincinnatians typically go to Florida for vacation, and Arizona might as well be in another country for most of them.
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