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Old 03-30-2013, 07:10 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,293 posts, read 12,851,958 times
Reputation: 6637

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Filihok: Contract Analysis: Buster Posey

Quote:
Add Buster Posey to the list of new MLB multi-millionaires.


*source

Posey and the Giants agreed to a 9-year $167 million extension.

I've been looking at the contracts of some players who have signed extensions recently:
Justin Verlander
Adam Wainwright
Carlos Gomez

How does Posey's deal look?

Projections available on FanGraphs have Posey hitting .383/.503 in 562 PA's and producing 6.25 WAR.

That's good. That's really good.

Posey's future production is a bit more complex to estimate than other players'. Posey is a catcher, as such, they decline faster due to the wear-and-tear of the position. Excellent hitting athletic catchers, of which Posey is, also occasionally quit playing catcher at some point in their career and move to other positions - this prolongs their careers but lessens their value. As such, I've accelerated Posey's decline to account for either increased potential for breaking down or a move to another positions where his value will be less.

Spoiler


This still turns out well for the Giants

Using the same $5 million per WAR in 2013 with 5% inflation per year as I have with all other players, this is what I get:
YEAR projWAR SALARY WAR VALUE
2013 6.25 $8 mil $31 mil
2014 6.5 $12.5 mil $34 mil
2015 6.5 $16.5 mil $36 mil
2016 6.5 $20 mil $38 mil
2017 5.5 $21.4 mil $33 mil
2018 4.5 $21.4 mil $29 mil
2019 4.5 $21.4 mil $30 mil
2020 4 $21.4 mil $28 mil
2021 3.5 $24.4 mil $26 mil
TOTAL 47.8 $167 mil $285 mil
*Salary source

Given these assumptions, Posey is still expected to provide the Giants with over $100 million in excess value.

Maybe my estimated WAR totals are too high - I didn't want any Giants fans hurling accusations at me. But Posey is damn good (that should get them off of my back). Adding the 48 projected WAR to the 13 WAR that Posey has also produced gives him 61 WAR by age 35.

6 catchers since 1900 have produced 60 WAR by age 35
Johnny Bench 75
Ivan Rodriguez 66
Gary Carter 66
Joe Torre 63
Mike Piazza 61
Yogi Berra 60
*source

You've probably heard of those guys and if you're a Giants fan you probably don't mind Posey being mentioned in the same proverbial breath.

Somewhat interestingly, though, is that only one of those players, Piazza with 50 WAR, produced the 48 WAR that I'm projecting Posey for between ages 26 and 35. The others:
Bench 39
Rodriguez 43
Carter 45
Torre 36
Berra 47
*source

Further only 3 of those pitchers played over 90% of their innings at catcher in their career:
Rodriguez 99.7%
Piazza 96.3%
Carter 91.8%
Bench 81.8%
Berra 76.8%
Torre 41.1%
*source


So, maybe the projection is too high.

It'd have to be astronomically too high for this to be anything other than the Giants signing a phenomenal player to a contract that he's likely to exceed.
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Old 03-30-2013, 08:13 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,545 posts, read 18,713,424 times
Reputation: 18832
Most impressive, my thanks. I'm delighted to see that in theory, the Giants have made an excellent deal. Now if he avoids getting hurt or caught using PEDs, and the crick don' rise...

Posey is also a good long term investment in terms of team identification and promotion. He takes his profession very seriously, he has intense focus but is even tempered in character, an excellent baseball personality. He is candid and intelligent in interviews, avoiding the usual cliches while remaining diplomatic and controversy free.

Obviously his on field performance is far more important than his role as the face of the franchise, but if the Giants get what is expected on the field, they will also have an outstanding character to market. This should be a welcome relief from the decade and a half they spent having to market the self absorbed and moody Bonds as the franchise face, followed by grooming the goofy Tim Lincecum as the probable replacement. Timmy derailed so now the mantle falls on Buster with this contract representing his anointment.
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