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Old 10-11-2013, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,655 posts, read 5,698,183 times
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And I was director of North American research for a major media company. AND I actually played baseball at the NCAA level.

You asked for statistics to support the idea of pitchers having an advantage without the context of Ruth - your argument was simply that "conventional wisdom" was a fallacy. You now have that answer.

I'd suggest adding "common sense" to this, but I'm certain you don't believe in that concept either. But heck, let's go for it anyway: In addition to the statistics, let's also note that Beltran has significantly more data available to him on opposing pitchers than did Ruth. And because Ruth was the most famous, most watched, most analyzed player of his era, pitchers would logically know more about his tendencies than vice verse.

Baseball =/= random coin flips.
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Old 10-11-2013, 05:05 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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sskink
Quote:
And I was director of North American research for a major media company. AND I actually played baseball at the NCAA level.
Irrelevant to the matter at hand.

Quote:
You asked for statistics to support the idea of pitchers having an advantage without the context of Ruth - your argument was simply that "conventional wisdom" was a fallacy. You now have that answer.
You provided an inadequate answer, as I took the trouble to explain. Please reread it, or read it for the first time I suppose since you are behaving as through it wasn't there.

Quote:
I'd suggest adding "common sense" to this, but I'm certain you don't believe in that concept either. But heck, let's go for it anyway: In addition to the statistics, let's also note that Beltran has significantly more data available to him on opposing pitchers than did Ruth. And because Ruth was the most famous, most watched, most analyzed player of his era, pitchers would logically know more about his tendencies than vice verse.
"Common sense" of course is straight out of the Authority of the Skies school that brought us "generally accepted" and "conventional wisdom." If we keep this exchange going long enough, I anticipate your introducing "A wise man once said.." and "Like they always say..."

The arguments about Beltran having data, and Ruth being more known due to his fame, actually have some merit. You should have led with those.
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Old 10-14-2013, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,655 posts, read 5,698,183 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
"Common sense" of course is straight out of the Authority of the Skies school that brought us "generally accepted" and "conventional wisdom." If we keep this exchange going long enough, I anticipate your introducing "A wise man once said.." and "Like they always say..."

The arguments about Beltran having data, and Ruth being more known due to his fame, actually have some merit. You should have led with those.
So you DO believe in common sense

And yes, being a market research director is relevant. The job involves MBA-level managerial statistics, which covers all concepts you've mentioned. Won't get me a job at NASA, but good enough for most baseball applications. While I haven't had to personally do a multiple regression analysis in years, standard deviations remain a fact of my life.

Might be interesting to note that on a double odds bet at the craps table of a Vegas casino, the house vig is about 0.006. Or less than what those baseball stat geeks proved over 1,000s of PAs over a 30 year period. Small advantage, but still, house money. I'll give you it probably doesn't matter to Ruth over 150 post-season PAs.
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