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Old 09-05-2017, 09:39 AM
 
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What about the Nationals? This also didn't answer my question. Recall they had a > 20 game lead over Arizona just a couple weeks ago.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Southern California
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Originally Posted by rarog View Post
How small does their lead have to become for panic to set in?
In general 3 games, that's basically a series, a weekend. But like CBeisbol stated in order for them to win 104 games, they will need to win their last 24 games.

The Dbacks have already won 11 straight, that would mean that they would need to finish the season at 35-0
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:50 AM
 
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You could also relax the constraints. Say the Dodgers win Kershaw's starts and lose the other games. They certainly haven't been playing anywhere near .500 the past couple weeks. That puts them at 97 wins. Then Arizona "only" needs to go 17-7, or 14-11 for Washington. Now this is extremely unlikely and would be the greatest collapse of all time, but they've been absolutely awful lately.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Southern California
141 posts, read 93,608 times
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Originally Posted by rarog View Post
You could also relax the constraints. Say the Dodgers win Kershaw's starts and lose the other games. They certainly haven't been playing anywhere near .500 the past couple weeks. That puts them at 97 wins. Then Arizona "only" needs to go 17-7, or 14-11 for Washington. Now this is extremely unlikely and would be the greatest collapse of all time, but they've been absolutely awful lately.
Which brings up the question, which is more indicative of the Dodgers season in 2017, the torrid pace one or the one in the current slump. IMHO its somewhere in the middle, probably closer to the torrid pace one, based on their talent. They basically need to play .500 ball the rest of the way. There's no panic now.
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:02 AM
 
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Most likely they win the division with a single digit lead and choke in the playoffs again, same old, same old, possibly even against the Diamondbacks in the NLDS. Probably a more interesting question is who the 2nd wild card team is. Colorado is spinning out of control. Could St. Louis make a run at it?
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Old 09-05-2017, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Southern California
141 posts, read 93,608 times
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Originally Posted by rarog View Post
Most likely they win the division with a single digit lead and choke in the playoffs again, same old, same old, possibly even against the Diamondbacks in the NLDS. Probably a more interesting question is who the 2nd wild card team is. Colorado is spinning out of control. Could St. Louis make a run at it?
Hell we can spend all day speculating what will happen, but one thing is certain, with postseason in the horizon I expect the hating to intensify
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:19 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
The DBacks can win 104 games if they don't lose again this season

The Dodgers have 92 wins - meaning if they'd just have to win 13 of their remaining 25 games (just over 50%) to beat the DBacks.

Fortunately for the first scenario it's highly unlikely that happens. because to see the Dodgers win 13 games the rest of the season IMO highly unlikely too.

In fact depending on what happens in the next week they might not get to 100 wins. They have a tough schedule ahead & also just teams that would love to give the Dodgers a hard time. I.e. Padres & Giants.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:30 AM
 
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Going into the 3 game series @ home vs the D Backs I told people the Dodgers just really need to win 1 game. You win just one game you take the magic # from 13 to 11 & sustain a 12.5 game lead.

If they get swept they are still at 13 magic # but also at a 10.5 game lead. 10.5 is still a lot. But then the focus turns on to the Rockies 4 game series. The Rockies are not an easy team to beat fortunately we are in LA & not Coors Field.

But I think the Dodgers are now in a situation where they'd love to continue to give guys more rest but will have to think a little differently (if they get swept against the D Backs) going into that 4 game series.

You can not afford to get swept by the Rockies if the D Backs continue to win. A 6.5 game lead with 19 games left is not a guarantee.

One good sign next week is the Rockies face off against the D Backs (in Arizona). but a 4 game series.

some positives is RYU pitched well last night but probably won't be a post season pitcher. Rich Hill bounced back nicely.
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Old 09-06-2017, 10:58 AM
 
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I don't see them falling out of the division lead, if nothing else because Arizona only has 1 more chance to beat them. Half of their lead that they've lost is from head-to-head vs. the DBacks. I would also say for the DBacks sake, they've got the home wild card game basically locked up, it's not worth pushing themselves for a slim chance at the division, when the benefits aren't that great. Greinke should be fine to take out Colorado (who isn't playing well) or whoever else at home, then they could match up Ray against Kershaw in games 1 and 5 (who historically doesn't play well in the postseason).

Though this is a Dodgers thread. They need to get back on track. I don't know what the issue is. They need to win 1 game when Kershaw isn't pitching. Just 1 game. That play that lost them the game last night was just sad.
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Old 09-06-2017, 01:32 PM
 
2,217 posts, read 3,085,637 times
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Originally Posted by rarog View Post
I don't see them falling out of the division lead, if nothing else because Arizona only has 1 more chance to beat them. Half of their lead that they've lost is from head-to-head vs. the DBacks. I would also say for the DBacks sake, they've got the home wild card game basically locked up, it's not worth pushing themselves for a slim chance at the division, when the benefits aren't that great. Greinke should be fine to take out Colorado (who isn't playing well) or whoever else at home, then they could match up Ray against Kershaw in games 1 and 5 (who historically doesn't play well in the postseason).

Though this is a Dodgers thread. They need to get back on track. I don't know what the issue is. They need to win 1 game when Kershaw isn't pitching. Just 1 game. That play that lost them the game last night was just sad.

That's a good point that 5 games so far during this slump was credit to the D Backs beating them.

Kershaw probably will pitch 1 and 4 though.

Dodgers should have home friend advantage in the first round (even as a 2 seed if they are passed by the Nationals). So Kershaw goes game 1 at home then goes game 4 (if needed) on the road. I think your chances are better in a game 4 with Kershaw on the road than anybody else.

Plus the downfall of Kershaw going game 5 is if they advantage he likely doesn't pitch game 1 or 2 in the NLCS which would be very bad.
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