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Old 11-03-2017, 04:08 PM
 
448 posts, read 421,960 times
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Well that was a roller coaster of emotions for a good 9 days. These final few days wreaked havoc on my sleep pattern. Glad I was able to make it to Game 6 which thanks to Halloween the prices dropped about 50/60% from Games 1 and 2.

My thoughts on Game 7.
Yu Garbage did blow the game but the Dodgers had their opportunities to chip away at the lead and make a comeback. I mean, Houston scored all of their runs by the end of the 2nd inning and their offense seemed to be at a stalemate since then. Meanwhile, the Dodgers kept leaving runners in scoring position.

My criticisms/thoughts of the Dodgers.
Yu Darvish was Yu Garbage and a lot of the blame should be rightfully put on him. His final 2017WS stats look like: 21.6 ERA, 3.1 innings pitched, 9 hits, 9 runs, 2 HR. That is dreadful and the Dodgers should not make him any offers in the off-season. He was specifically brought in to help us in the post-season and he choked when it mattered the most.

Chase Utley also comes to mind when you think of someone the Dodgers should let go. He was supposed to be the veteran with playoff experience and he was a black hole throughout the playoffs. He had 15 at-bats these playoffs with ZERO HITS. His only contribution was being beaned in Game 6 and scoring a run. But combined with his atrocious batting, that included key situations with men on base in several games in addition to a costly ground ball he could not turn into an out in Game 2, his presence was counterproductive to the Dodger's World Series.

Kershaw cannot be trusted in big situations. Sorry boys. As much as we all love our homegrown stud, when the chips are on the line he can really look like a dud. There really is no excuse for his performance in Game 5. In the years prior all we've head and seen was that the Dodgers couldn't get him enough run support. They gave him two big leads in Game 5 and he blew both. Can't help but feel bad for the guy but I am absolutely convinced, in fact I've been convinced with this for a few years back, that Kershaw should be treated as the #2 pitcher in postseason play. This year he should have followed Rich Hill in the rotation. Not sure what kind of difference this would have made in the outcome of the series but this just makes more sense for me.

Dave Roberts was perhaps the weakest link in the Dodgers. He made costly coaching errors throughout the series that really cost the Dodgers. His main mistake was sticking to the supposed game plan he laid out on paper. Meanwhile, the arms in the Dodgers bullpen paid the ultimate price. The obvious example is Game 2 and how he took out Rich Hill waaaay too early.
Then he leaves our bullpen stretched thin in Game 5.
Then he starts Yu Garbage in Game 7 despite his Game 3 performance. I think Alex Wood, an All Star pitcher who pitched a Game 4 gem was the best suited pitcher given the circumstances. Ironic that Wood was brought in for relief in Game 7 and his performance was the same.
I just hope that he's learned that the universe does not operate perfectly and you have to be prepared for change in circumstances. This whole analytics stuff is great during the regular season and even the playoffs when you are facing a team that is mismatched. But this stuff doesn't apply so great when you are facing a team that is about as evenly matched as you will eventually face at some point. Such as the Astros. The analytics should be used as a guide, not a plan.
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Old 11-03-2017, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,010 posts, read 18,578,670 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latino_esq View Post
. The analytics should be used as a guide, not a plan.
I don't agree. I think when it comes to metrics, you should either go all in, or not bother at all.

Consider...a blackjack dealer in a Casino plays under instructions from the house. He/she will always stick on a set number because that number has been determined via calculating the odds, to provide the best possible chance of the house winning the hand. As long as the dealer follows the instructions, the house will always come out ahead in the long run.

Suppose that dealer decides to mix in gut feelings or play hunches every second or third hand? He/she may get lucky for a time, but by abandoning always playing the same way, the dealer has forfeited the long run protection which those odds provided.

Metric analysis is all about calculating the real odds taking place on the ballfield. All the elaborate defensive shifting we see today is a product of grinding data about a hitter's tendencies. We know that Joe Soandso drives the ball to the right side of the infield 72 % of the time, up the middle 16 % of the time, and to the left side just 12 % of the time. So, we move all the infielders clockwise to better cover the areas where the ball is most likely to go.

Suppose once more...a manager decides to play a hunch and doesn't shift the defenders. Soandso may hit one of those 12% of the time drives toward the left, seemingly validating the hunch, but that was mere luck which bucked the odds. The manager actually forfeited the advantages which the metric positioning gives him. If he keeps playing hunches, in the long run it will backfire on him more often than reward.

If you know the exact odds on something, and ignore them in favor of a move with less favorable odds, you cannot help but come out a loser in the long run.

So, if you have a metrics department worth its expense, use it, don't dilute it with guesses and gut feelings.
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Old 11-03-2017, 07:03 PM
 
17,304 posts, read 10,212,749 times
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First priority for Dodgers in off season: Get rid of Yu, yet another in a long line of busts from Japan, I don't know why some Major League baseball owners are so enamored of 'talent' from Japan. Outside of an anomaly like Ichiro, you have dozens of others who severely underperformed or outright flopped. Yu never had that killer instinct and mindset to take it to the next level to win championships.

Yes there were others who didn't help the Dodgers in this series including the game 5 stinker by K., but when it all came down to game 7, it was ALL on Yu. There's now stories that Yu projected his pitches and that's why the Astros were able to take advantage of him. That shows Yu just didn't give a f**k and didn't even want to be there. Yes you could also make a case it was on Roberts too since he could have pulled him earlier or better yet not even started him at all.

Once you are down 0-5, it really changes the whole dynamic and psychology of the team. You could tell the Dodgers became tight and every hitter was struggling and wanting to hit a home run. Puig's body language said it all, he was so angry, throwing the bat and cursing himself instead of being focused.
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Old 11-03-2017, 07:16 PM
 
448 posts, read 421,960 times
Reputation: 725
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I don't agree. I think when it comes to metrics, you should either go all in, or not bother at all.

Consider...a blackjack dealer in a Casino plays under instructions from the house. He/she will always stick on a set number because that number has been determined via calculating the odds, to provide the best possible chance of the house winning the hand. As long as the dealer follows the instructions, the house will always come out ahead in the long run.

Suppose that dealer decides to mix in gut feelings or play hunches every second or third hand? He/she may get lucky for a time, but by abandoning always playing the same way, the dealer has forfeited the long run protection which those odds provided.

Metric analysis is all about calculating the real odds taking place on the ballfield. All the elaborate defensive shifting we see today is a product of grinding data about a hitter's tendencies. We know that Joe Soandso drives the ball to the right side of the infield 72 % of the time, up the middle 16 % of the time, and to the left side just 12 % of the time. So, we move all the infielders clockwise to better cover the areas where the ball is most likely to go.

Suppose once more...a manager decides to play a hunch and doesn't shift the defenders. Soandso may hit one of those 12% of the time drives toward the left, seemingly validating the hunch, but that was mere luck which bucked the odds. The manager actually forfeited the advantages which the metric positioning gives him. If he keeps playing hunches, in the long run it will backfire on him more often than reward.

If you know the exact odds on something, and ignore them in favor of a move with less favorable odds, you cannot help but come out a loser in the long run.

So, if you have a metrics department worth its expense, use it, don't dilute it with guesses and gut feelings.
I'm going to simplify my answer to this.
As I stated, I generally agree that the analytics seems to be working to the extent that the Dodgers had the best record in the majors and it landed us within one game of a title. The game of analytics works in the long run when your team has advantages over other teams. The Dodgers, for instance, are a team that ranks amongst the best, if not the best, in most major categories (from pitching to offensive production etc). So the analytics works against most teams that are one or two dimensional.

But my problem with your analogy is that baseball isn't akin to playing a game of cards such as blackjack. In baseball you have a lot more variables that have to be considered, many of which cannot be shoved into an equation.
Generally speaking, it is smart baseball to shift your infield depending on the batters hitting tendencies, especially if the odds can give you strong projections on what he will probably do (the batter loves to pull the ball).
But what happens if this batter changes what he tends to do? In your example, what happens if Soansdo[?] (not sure who this is but I'll use this name as a frame of reference) begins to hit to the left side of the field? He's been working at hitting to the opposite side of the field and for the first few games of the series he has made good contact and gets on base. Are you willing to tell me that you should stick to the shift because the analytics, which were calculated prior to this player's adjustments, still favor the shift??

Madison Bumgarner is a good example of a pitcher who has good regular season numbers but in the WS he is virtually unhittable. When you attempt to calculate his overall numbers, ERA, etc, his WS performances will barely put a dent on his overall numbers. In other words, his lifetime ERA over 234 games is just over 3.0 yet his WS ERA, at 5 games, is at .25. Knowing what what we know about his clutch performances in the WS, an analytics manager will pull him out a lot sooner than a manager who understands what a player of his caliber can do.

What I'm trying to say is that you can't factor in things such as clutch performances, a player becoming hot, a player that is slumping, things that have no numerical value or method of incorporation in metric analysis yet can be apparent if you analyze what's going on in front of your eyes. All you have is numbers and numbers don't win championships. Great performances in postseason play in any sport can make you or break you if you don't make the proper adjustments.

In my opinion, and I'm not trying to take anything away from Houston, the Dodgers should have wrapped this series up in 6 games had Roberts managed the game instead of letting the analytics manage the game for him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suburban_Guy View Post
Once you are down 0-5, it really changes the whole dynamic and psychology of the team. You could tell the Dodgers became tight and every hitter was struggling and wanting to hit a home run. Puig's body language said it all, he was so angry, throwing the bat and cursing himself instead of being focused.
I agree. Going down 5 early in the game really changed the dynamic of the night for the Dodger lineup. With runners in scoring position I think the batters were looking to make big hits and score multiple runs at a time with the assumption that this would be another high scoring offensive battle.

Last edited by latino_esq; 11-03-2017 at 07:27 PM.. Reason: edit
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Old 11-03-2017, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Western Colorado
11,092 posts, read 12,478,899 times
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Puigs home is burglarized during the game and Kershaw says maybe one day he won't be a failure.
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Old 11-03-2017, 09:30 PM
 
Location: The city of champions
1,830 posts, read 1,699,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suburban_Guy View Post
First priority for Dodgers in off season: Get rid of Yu, yet another in a long line of busts from Japan, I don't know why some Major League baseball owners are so enamored of 'talent' from Japan. Outside of an anomaly like Ichiro, you have dozens of others who severely underperformed or outright flopped. Yu never had that killer instinct and mindset to take it to the next level to win championships.

Yes there were others who didn't help the Dodgers in this series including the game 5 stinker by K., but when it all came down to game 7, it was ALL on Yu. There's now stories that Yu projected his pitches and that's why the Astros were able to take advantage of him. That shows Yu just didn't give a f**k and didn't even want to be there. Yes you could also make a case it was on Roberts too since he could have pulled him earlier or better yet not even started him at all.

Once you are down 0-5, it really changes the whole dynamic and psychology of the team. You could tell the Dodgers became tight and every hitter was struggling and wanting to hit a home run. Puig's body language said it all, he was so angry, throwing the bat and cursing himself instead of being focused.
Yu is definitely good. Sure he sucked against the Astros but he absolutely dominated the Dbacks and Cubs in their stadium.
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Old 11-03-2017, 10:20 PM
 
448 posts, read 421,960 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Illusive Man View Post
Yu is definitely good. Sure he sucked against the Astros but he absolutely dominated the Dbacks and Cubs in their stadium.
Yu can be good but he has been completely inconsistent. I canít remember the last time heís been good for a considerable string of games. Since his TJ surgery in 2015 he doesnít seem quite the same. His best days may be behind him. The Dodgers would be crazy to offer him a big contract especially with how crappy he performed in the WS. After all, the WS was what we got him for. They have enough arms to wait and see who they can snag in the offseason or before the trade deadline next year.
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Old 11-04-2017, 07:13 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,010 posts, read 18,578,670 times
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latino_esq
Quote:
But what happens if this batter changes what he tends to do?
If a batter's tendencies change, then new data is generated and you make your adjustments accordingly.

Quote:
Madison Bumgarner is a good example of a pitcher who has good regular season numbers but in the WS he is virtually unhittable
People don't seem to want to believe this, so they don't, but the difference between regular season performance and post season performance is mostly a matter of luck. If you break down a hitter or pitcher's performance in the regular season into a series of seven game segments, you will find ups and downs, segments where they player was excellent, and segments where the player did poorly for a time. Ability and talent do not change just because it is the post season, whether you are a hero or a goat largely depends upon whether you happen to be in one of your lucky periods or unlucky ones.

This is true, but gets resisted because people would rather believe what the players always say after winning...that it had been a test of their character and they came through. That is what they want to believe about themselves. It is all an illusion. It actually isn't the most determined rising to the challenge or the great player being reduced to futility because of nerves. rather we are seeing the same thing that happens during the regular seasons....slumps and streaks of brilliance. It gets magnified because it is the post season and this leads to the false conclusions I mention above.

Quote:
In my opinion, and I'm not trying to take anything away from Houston, the Dodgers should have wrapped this series up in 6 games had Roberts managed the game instead of letting the analytics manage the game for him.
You now enjoy the benefit of hindsight, knowing which moves paid off and which ones backfired. Roberts did not have this advantage when making his decisions, only awareness of the odds. If you make a move which is favored by the odds, but it doesn't work out, that is bad luck, not bad decision making. If you conclude from the failure that you should buck the odds next time, you will inevitably lose in the long run.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:42 AM
 
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Sounds like many of you Dodger fans feel the same way about YU like me but you'd be surprised how many Dodgers fans want to give him another shot just because he gives a nice heart warm message to Dodgers fans.

For the record I never wanted him to resign anyway because just feel that he'll command to much money at the age of 31.

But to me also it's not that he just bombed game 7. He was horrible in game 3 which had a domino effect on our bullpen. Our bullpen had to come in during the 2nd inning and really made Kenta work. Agian. game 3! The first game of a 3 game series in Houston. That was bad. It would have been one thing if it was game 2 and we had a day off but no, game 3.

I Just think some things happen in sports where you should just cut ties because the only way he could make up for what he did to some extend is save the Dodgers season next year in the playoffs & what are the odds of that?

I have to wonder how Dodger players feel about him too. He came over in August after most of them had been together since February. Only to see him fail in the World Series. Gotta be tough.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:56 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,010 posts, read 18,578,670 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suburban_Guy View Post
Get rid of Yu, yet another in a long line of busts from Japan, I don't know why some Major League baseball owners are so enamored of 'talent' from Japan. Outside of an anomaly like Ichiro, you have dozens of others who severely underperformed or outright flopped. .
Ichiro is not an anomaly. There has been Hideo Nomo who won 123 games and twice finished 4th in the Cy Young voting. Hideki Okajima has a 3.09 ERA after six seasons and 250 innings of relief for the Red Sox. Koji Uehara has thrown 480 innings for the Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox and now Cubs, compiling a career 2.66 ERA. In ten seasons Hideki Matsui batted .282/.360/.462 and hit 175 home runs. In 13 seasons, Korean Shin-Soo Choo has batted .278/.378/.449 with 168 home runs and 130 stolen bases.

I can't imagine any ML GM turning down performances such as the above, those were all very valuable players. Ichiro may be the only one to achieve superstardom, but then susperstardom is the exception for everyone, not the rule.
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