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Old 11-04-2017, 08:10 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,904 posts, read 6,202,834 times
Reputation: 2224

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jim9251 View Post
Puigs home is burglarized during the game and Kershaw says maybe one day he won't be a failure.
Kershy is no failure but Puig ought to be traded!
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Old 11-04-2017, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,904 posts, read 6,202,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jim9251 View Post
Worst umpire ever. And I am very tired of the FOX talking heads Astros fanboys announcing the game, enough already, we know who you guys want to win.
Boy was that ever true!
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Old 11-04-2017, 08:23 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,904 posts, read 6,202,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jim9251 View Post
That was just tough to watch, I kept hoping my Dodgers would win. Almost cried after it was over, awful game just awful.
Same here! I had not felt this bad since the WS loss of 1978!😳
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Old 11-04-2017, 08:25 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,904 posts, read 6,202,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by subPrimeTime View Post
This experience should humble and help Bellinger. The Astros figured him out, his plate discipline was tested and he needs to adjust. Nevertheless, the future seems bright.
When he came up with 1st and 2nd and 0 outs he should have bunted!
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Old 11-04-2017, 08:39 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,904 posts, read 6,202,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Statz2k10 View Post
I know we won game 4 but it's like dominos. Game 3 can still effect game 5.
The Dodgers not winning game 2 was their biggest downfall.
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Old 11-06-2017, 08:43 AM
 
448 posts, read 422,330 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
If a batter's tendencies change, then new data is generated and you make your adjustments accordingly.
You're making it sound like data generation is instantaneous, simple and an immediate reflection of performance.
The problem is that short term data or small samples (whatever you want to call it) in the playoffs for instance, will generally have a nominal effect on the overall data, the data used in player analysis. This is the problem I'm talking about with strict adherence to metric analysis because the playoffs don't provide enough data to change the overall analysis which is especially critical if you have a player that isn't adhering to the data.

For example: Cody Bellinger had 128 hits this regular season. If the statistics show that he pulls pitches 75% of the time then an analytics manager will be inclined to shift his infield towards right field. Okay, that is probably a sound move since Bellinger is going to hit in that direction 75% of the time.
But if you've been shifting your infield accordingly during the first two games of the NLDS and Bellinger starts to slice hits towards the left field, say he gets 4 hits in 8 at bats all at left field, your overall metric analysis will still suggest that shifting your infield towards the right side is sound decision. Overall the percentage of him hitting towards the right will only drop a couple points, from 75% to 72%, because you are now measuring his statistics on 132 hits. So what do you do in Game 3 of the NLDS? Keep shifting and run that risk that he will continue to hit to the left? Assume that he's not talented enough to beat the shift?

If your going all or nothing on the metrics then you are going to keep shifting your infield towards the right despite Bellinger's consistent ability to hit into the left. But hey, as long as the metric analysis keeps telling you to do why deviate? After all, it is the playoffs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
People don't seem to want to believe this, so they don't, but the difference between regular season performance and post season performance is mostly a matter of luck. If you break down a hitter or pitcher's performance in the regular season into a series of seven game segments, you will find ups and downs, segments where they player was excellent, and segments where the player did poorly for a time. Ability and talent do not change just because it is the post season, whether you are a hero or a goat largely depends upon whether you happen to be in one of your lucky periods or unlucky ones.
"post season performance is mostly a matter of luck." I disagree with this to a certain extent. Firstly, calling it "mostly a matter of luck" is your opinion, and self serving since it supports your opinion on strict adherence to data analysis.
Although I'm certain that luck is a component in sports, it is a stretch to call post season performances mostly a matter of luck. There can be many reasons why a player may have elevated post-season performance. I could go into other sports but I'll keep this matter on baseball where elevated performances have occurred simply by a player becoming hot. Players get inexplicably hot and slump through various times of the year. Slumps may occur based on mechanical issues but most of the time a player goes on a slump because of mental issues. A player goes into a game thinking that he's been 0 for his last 25 at bats, for instance. Or the player may come in on a day to day basis believing that he has to carry the load or save the team.
Conversely a player can become hot for different reasons: maybe the pitching he's facing is tailored to his style of batting, maybe he's familiar with the pitchers, maybe it's because of the ballparks he is playing in, who knows.
I guess it depends on what your definition of what "luck" is. Yet I'm certain many people out there will tell you that luck doesn't just happen. People create their own luck with how they perform.
Just as an example: George Springer had a batting average of .283 in the regular season, .115 in the ALCS, and .379 in the WS with 5 homeruns. Luck?

Whatever the answer to your "luck" proposition may be, it still falls back as a factor that cannot be given a numerical value in metric analysis. If your metric analysis tells you that Joe Schmoe is weak with off-speed pitches yet has hit a homerun from off-speed pitches two times in his last four at-bats, it really shouldn't matter if you can categorize it as luck versus adjustments, etc. He's hitting off-speed pitches well and you should make your own adjustments instead of strictly adhering to metric analysis. That is what coaches are for.

Last edited by latino_esq; 11-06-2017 at 08:56 AM.. Reason: Edit
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Old 11-06-2017, 09:51 AM
 
2,222 posts, read 3,091,058 times
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Do you offer Brandon Morrow a qualifying offer. It would be a very expensive QO for a guy like him but he was pretty much lights out in the pen this year. I still think he failed in game 5 because he was over worked.

I think it's obvious that bullpens play a huge part come October & I'd worry about whether they can get a replacement for him. Who knows what Baez does in 2018.
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Old 11-06-2017, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,130 posts, read 18,599,788 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latino_esq View Post
Whatever the answer to your "luck" proposition may be, it still falls back as a factor that cannot be given a numerical value in metric analysis. If your metric analysis tells you that Joe Schmoe is weak with off-speed pitches yet has hit a homerun from off-speed pitches two times in his last four at-bats, it really shouldn't matter if you can categorize it as luck versus adjustments, etc. He's hitting off-speed pitches well and you should make your own adjustments instead of strictly adhering to metric analysis. That is what coaches are for.
As in my other reply.....if a player alters his tendencies, it will show up in the data and a new set of tendencies will be identified. I will have the same answer to any "what if" question anyone poses.

If you have a season's worth of data on a hitter's tendencies, that data is still valid in the post season. Joe Soandso pulls the ball most of the time...why would that change in the post season? Pulling the ball apparently was successful for Soandso, so he will continue to do it.

The luck I speak of does not mean that talent is removed from the equation, talent ultimately decides performance, but does not decide the "when" of that performance. The "when" is the part which is subject to luck.

Quote:
Firstly, calling it "mostly a matter of luck" is your opinion, and self serving since it supports your opinion on strict adherence to data analysis.
It is not my opinion, it can be demonstrated with math. It gets demonstrated daily during the regular season, you can check the ESPN standings and compare them to the Pythag standings. The entire idea of the Pythag business is to measure what portion of performance may be said to be due to luck in run distribution. That is not an opinion, it is fact, the formula works. If you have a formula which does a better job of predicting future performance based on runs scored and allowed, please share it with us.
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Old 11-06-2017, 12:59 PM
 
3,944 posts, read 7,532,273 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StrkAliteN View Post
Season ticket holder here ( I go to a lot of games )

I totally respected and admired his level of play, how it was so blatantly obvious how he hustled 100% on everything he did. Either offensively defensively etc ...

You could just see his focus and determination in how he went about his business.

I am not surprised at all the The Dodgers developed him into a quality big league ball player in such a short period of time
I am a fan of both the Mariners (since 1978) and the Dodgers (since 1977). I agree with this about Taylor.

Now I would like to see the Dodgers take a very different type of player, Pederson, and somehow get that 100% hustle into him. His exuberant celebrations are fun to watch when he or a teammate has success, but it's not much fun watching him stand at the plate, waiting for a triple to become a double. Has he forgotten he was once a stealer of bases?
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Old 11-06-2017, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,904 posts, read 6,202,834 times
Reputation: 2224
Quote:
Originally Posted by sll3454 View Post
I am a fan of both the Mariners (since 1978) and the Dodgers (since 1977). I agree with this about Taylor.

Now I would like to see the Dodgers take a very different type of player, Pederson, and somehow get that 100% hustle into him. His exuberant celebrations are fun to watch when he or a teammate has success, but it's not much fun watching him stand at the plate, waiting for a triple to become a double. Has he forgotten he was once a stealer of bases?
The Dodgers need a more balanced offense. They need to hit n run and vice versa as well as hit home runs.
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