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Old 11-08-2017, 09:59 AM
 
Location: The city of champions
1,830 posts, read 1,595,563 times
Reputation: 1314

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Quote:
Originally Posted by CamaroGuy View Post
The Dodgers need a more balanced offense. They need to hit n run and vice versa as well as hit home runs.
The Dodgers' offense was more than fine this postseason. They scored plenty of runs and had plenty of clutch hits all series other than game 7. The bullpen blew game 2 and 5. The offense did more than enough to win both of those games.


Game 7 was the only game where the offense was actually kept quiet.
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Old 11-08-2017, 11:13 AM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,068,608 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latino_esq View Post
Just as an example: George Springer had a batting average of .283 in the regular season, .115 in the ALCS, and .379 in the WS with 5 homeruns. Luck?
Yes

The playoffs are seven (at most) game series.

The regular season is 162 games. That means there were 156 different 7 game stretches during the regular season. Springer certainly didn't hit .283 over every 7 game stretch in the regular season.
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Old 11-15-2017, 04:14 PM
 
435 posts, read 391,207 times
Reputation: 690
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
As in my other reply.....if a player alters his tendencies, it will show up in the data and a new set of tendencies will be identified. I will have the same answer to any "what if" question anyone poses.

If you have a season's worth of data on a hitter's tendencies, that data is still valid in the post season. Joe Soandso pulls the ball most of the time...why would that change in the post season? Pulling the ball apparently was successful for Soandso, so he will continue to do it.

The luck I speak of does not mean that talent is removed from the equation, talent ultimately decides performance, but does not decide the "when" of that performance. The "when" is the part which is subject to luck.



It is not my opinion, it can be demonstrated with math. It gets demonstrated daily during the regular season, you can check the ESPN standings and compare them to the Pythag standings. The entire idea of the Pythag business is to measure what portion of performance may be said to be due to luck in run distribution. That is not an opinion, it is fact, the formula works. If you have a formula which does a better job of predicting future performance based on runs scored and allowed, please share it with us.
Still doesn't address my issue with sticking to the analytics. Your logic seems to be circular in leading you back to the conclusion that the data is always valid notwithstanding change in circumstances. Yes, for the most part, data analysis in the regular season is "valid" in the post season (if by "valid" we both mean to say that the players will continue to play in a consistent manner).
Yet, instead of repeating what has already been said numerous times and shown through examples I will stick to my original point that statistics are not only not perfect, but they may be misleading when a player plays in a manner that is inconsistent with the data analysis.

OVERALL using analytics is probably the best way to approach a game if a manager knows how to use it. But when a manager is faced with situations in which certain players are not adhering to the data analysis, for instance a player that gets on a roll during a playoff series (something you call luck), there is no replacement for good coaching and sound judgment. I'm sure Dave Roberts is out there somewhere kicking himself for being a stickler to analytics where he could have done something else (allow Rich Hill to pitch longer into Game 2 for instance). Agree to disagree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Yes

The playoffs are seven (at most) game series.

The regular season is 162 games. That means there were 156 different 7 game stretches during the regular season. Springer certainly didn't hit .283 over every 7 game stretch in the regular season.
I don't even know how to respond to this.
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Old 11-15-2017, 05:09 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
36,982 posts, read 17,444,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by latino_esq View Post
Still doesn't address my issue with sticking to the analytics. Your logic seems to be circular in leading you back to the conclusion that the data is always valid notwithstanding change in circumstances.
In that I wrote the opposite of the conclusion you assign me, I wonder about the worth of trying to communicate with you. Changes in circumstances will become part of the database, it is in a perpetual state of updating. If your present data based decisions start backfiring on you because of changed circumstances, you will soon know it when it shows up in the data. Then you alter your strategy to best take advantage of whatever the new data has revealed. You go with that until that stops working...and so on. Metrics isn't some static dynamic where eternal and unchanging laws prohibit adaptation.
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Old 11-15-2017, 05:58 PM
 
435 posts, read 391,207 times
Reputation: 690
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I wonder about the worth of trying to communicate with you.
After abstaining from this debate for over a week I don't think I need to address how I value my attempts to communicate with you. I can tell you, but you probably wouldn't understand either ways. Good Day.
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Old 11-16-2017, 01:00 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,068,608 times
Reputation: 3732
Quote:
Originally Posted by latino_esq View Post
I don't even know how to respond to this.
Think more. There's an obvious response

There were 7 game stretches in the regular season where Springer hit .115
There were 7 game stretches in the regular season where Springer hit .379
Why?


Go flip a coin 100 times.

There'll be stretches of 7 flips that have 6 or 7 heads
There'll be stretches of 7 flips thave have 0 or 1 head
Is it because the coin was in a hot or cold stretch?
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Old 12-17-2017, 11:18 AM
Status: "I'm not arguing. I'm just explaining why I'm right." (set 6 hours ago)
 
1,324 posts, read 2,055,472 times
Reputation: 1671
Huge trade by the Dodgers and the dust hasn't settled yet. Look for Kemp to go. We could use an upgrade at 2nd base, but just trade him for whatever you (Faz) can get. While he was a fan favorite here in the past, I was never on that bandwagon. I value defense, plus his attitude, at times, turned me off. I know that he has a rep for being moody in the clubhouse, but I'm talking about his behavior on the field. If Toles returns healthy, Kemp's HR output can be easily surpassed by a left field rotation of Toles/Hernandez/Pederson.
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Old 12-17-2017, 12:10 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
36,982 posts, read 17,444,005 times
Reputation: 16807
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustPassinThru View Post
Huge trade by the Dodgers and the dust hasn't settled yet. Look for Kemp to go. We could use an upgrade at 2nd base, but just trade him for whatever you (Faz) can get. While he was a fan favorite here in the past, I was never on that bandwagon. I value defense, plus his attitude, at times, turned me off. I know that he has a rep for being moody in the clubhouse, but I'm talking about his behavior on the field. If Toles returns healthy, Kemp's HR output can be easily surpassed by a left field rotation of Toles/Hernandez/Pederson.
It is huge only to the degree that a lot of players were involved, but they were all guys on the wrong side of 32 years old who don't project to be impact players. The exception was Culberson who is 28, but in a spotty five year career has compiled -O.9 WAR.

This trade was all about monetary adjustments, otherwise it was just shuffling warm bodies around.
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Old 12-17-2017, 12:22 PM
Status: "I'm not arguing. I'm just explaining why I'm right." (set 6 hours ago)
 
1,324 posts, read 2,055,472 times
Reputation: 1671
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
It is huge only to the degree that a lot of players were involved, but they were all guys on the wrong side of 32 years old who don't project to be impact players. The exception was Culberson who is 28, but in a spotty five year career has compiled -O.9 WAR.

This trade was all about monetary adjustments, otherwise it was just shuffling warm bodies around.
This trade was not only about resetting the luxury tax, but also about preparing for the next off-season, which will have the best free agent offerings in years. Not to mention that it opened up 3 spots on the roster, although Koehler will take one of those. Plus, there is still money available to sign another player, and more after Kemp is gone.

Atlanta now has an opening for their CF prospect, and Culberson gets to play for the team which he idolized as a child, and lives near. I couldn't be any happier for Culberson, and am sorry to see him go, but he had no future here in LA.

Much, much more than just shuffling warm bodies around.
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Old 12-17-2017, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
36,982 posts, read 17,444,005 times
Reputation: 16807
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustPassinThru View Post
This trade was not only about resetting the luxury tax, but also about preparing for the next off-season, which will have the best free agent offerings in years. Not to mention that it opened up 3 spots on the roster, although Koehler will take one of those. Plus, there is still money available to sign another player, and more after Kemp is gone.

Atlanta now has an opening for their CF prospect, and Culberson gets to play for the team which he idolized as a child, and lives near. I couldn't be any happier for Culberson, and am sorry to see him go, but he had no future here in LA.

Much, much more than just shuffling warm bodies around.
If they wanted roster space, they could have just released these guys. And no matter how delighted you are for Culberson, he's still a lousy player with no real value beyond replacement.
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