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Old 09-12-2013, 09:35 PM
 
Location: DMV
10,136 posts, read 11,674,268 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The Nationals are seven games back with 19 games left. They have a 2.4 % chance of making the post season.

Of note, the quality division between those five NL teams which have had the post season slots locked up for a month now, is reflected not just in their won/loss records, but also in that they are the only five NL teams who have outscored their opponents.

Cardinals..+ 147
Braves..+ 133
Reds..+ 107
Dodgers..+75
Pirates..+40
_____________

The other ten teams have all been outscored by their opponents, the next best scoring differentials are:
Nationals.. -3
Diamondbacks.. -7
Hogwash.

This means nothing. Again as I stated in the other thread, the Nats are hitting way better than they did at the beginning of the year. They had a negative run differential the entire year, but recently just surpassed it. You can't go off of those numbers. Teams get hot and cold throughout the year. Right now, the Nats have a cupcake schedule, and two of the hottest hitters in the league Jayson Werth (3rd in the NL in batting) and Denard Span (23 game hitting streak).

It seems like you have an issue with the Nats, what's your deal?
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Old 09-12-2013, 09:38 PM
 
Location: DMV
10,136 posts, read 11,674,268 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Are you sensing a little friction in the Nats dugout? Werth and Desmond seems to be the team leaders, and that's a good thing - they are both great players. But I see signs that not everyone buys into their kind of in-your-face baseball. I know Werth gave Gio Gonzales hell for refusing to hit a Braves player after Teheran (Braves) plunked Harper.
And friction costs ballgames, I think. Team spirit wins them, sometimes, but friction can lose games.
LaRoche, Zimmerman and Werth are really the team leaders. Desmond is a leader but he is not as vocal as the other three. They definitely have had some issues. They have been pressing the entire year. When you start the season with the expectation of winning the World Series, but you play so bad that you have to fire your hitting coach, issues are bound to happen. I think they are playing more relaxed now then they did before.

By the way, Werth did not yell at Gio for the Braves situation. Gio didn't even pitch during that game. He was mad at him for not covering first on a routine ground ball.
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Old 09-12-2013, 09:55 PM
 
Location: DMV
10,136 posts, read 11,674,268 times
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Just to illustrate my point. On August 7, 2013, the Nats were -39 and 6 games under .500
2013 MLB Regular Season Standings - Major League Baseball - ESPN

Today they are a +8 and 8 games over .500
2013 MLB Regular Season Standings - Major League Baseball - ESPN
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Old 09-12-2013, 10:03 PM
 
Location: Chicago
38,690 posts, read 89,356,696 times
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And am I the only one who remembers the Great Atlanta Braves Collapse of 2011? The only solace a Cubs fan like myself had that season was knowing the Cardinals weren't going to make it to the playoffs either. And then the Braves said, "you know what St. Louis? We don't want to be in the playoffs, so you go ahead and take our spot." And then the Cards went on to win the World Series.

Stupid Braves.
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Old 09-12-2013, 10:19 PM
 
Location: Seattle, Washington
2,533 posts, read 3,965,439 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drover View Post
And am I the only one who remembers the Great Atlanta Braves Collapse of 2011? The only solace a Cubs fan like myself had that season was knowing the Cardinals weren't going to make it to the playoffs either. And then the Braves said, "you know what St. Louis? We don't want to be in the playoffs, so you go ahead and take our spot." And then the Cards went on to win the World Series.

Stupid Braves.
I remember it quite well.

I also remember the 1 game playoff last year.

At least this season the Braves will get a full series instead of having the entire season riding on 1 game.
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Old 09-12-2013, 10:48 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,303 posts, read 18,643,446 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgtvatitans View Post
Hogwash.

This means nothing. Again as I stated in the other thread, the Nats are hitting way better than they did at the beginning of the year. They had a negative run differential the entire year, but recently just surpassed it. You can't go off of those numbers. Teams get hot and cold throughout the year. Right now, the Nats have a cupcake schedule, and two of the hottest hitters in the league Jayson Werth (3rd in the NL in batting) and Denard Span (23 game hitting streak).

It seems like you have an issue with the Nats, what's your deal?
I have no issues whatsoever with the Nationals, that you are taking a partisan view perhaps is causing you to make this false perception. I have all along made it clear that my reliance has been on the math involved and I have backed all of my posts with the data.

If the Nationals should defy the odds and make the post season, great, I have no particular favorite in that race. I'm not rooting for or against them. If Washington does manage to make it, then what has otherwise been a snoozer season for the NL will get some 11th hour excitement. If not, it will have been the snoozer of a season that it has been since a month ago when five teams pulled away from the rest of the pack.

As for your "this means nothing" comment, you are of course in error with that, it is not possible that data which gives information on the race could be without meaning. For example, the fact that the Giants have already been eliminated, a fact we only know because of the data, would seem a pretty meaningful thing, don't you think? From the data we learn how well the Nationals would have to play relative to the play of the teams ahead of them, in order to prevail. That means nothing to you? You fail to see any relevancy there?

That the data does not mean what you would like it to mean does not change the meaning, nor is the meaning suddenly rendered void. If the Nationals defy the odds and make the post season, that will not alter what the odds for them doing that on September 12th were, it will mean that they overcame long odds.
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Old 09-13-2013, 12:00 AM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,556 posts, read 4,515,663 times
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Nats have been playing well, but certainly haven't gotten help from the Reds, Pirates, or Cardinals in the NL like the Yankees have received from the Rays & Rangers in the junior circuit. We just have to keep winning and hope one of those 3 teams go on a 4 or 5 game losing streak. Phillies were 7.5 back with 17 games to play and won the division. Nats are only 5.5 back with 16 games left, so we've got a game in hand on the 07 Phillies, and we're 2 games closer. As the last decade has told us, leads are never assumed safe until game 162.
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Old 09-13-2013, 06:15 AM
 
Location: DMV
10,136 posts, read 11,674,268 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
I have no issues whatsoever with the Nationals, that you are taking a partisan view perhaps is causing you to make this false perception. I have all along made it clear that my reliance has been on the math involved and I have backed all of my posts with the data.

If the Nationals should defy the odds and make the post season, great, I have no particular favorite in that race. I'm not rooting for or against them. If Washington does manage to make it, then what has otherwise been a snoozer season for the NL will get some 11th hour excitement. If not, it will have been the snoozer of a season that it has been since a month ago when five teams pulled away from the rest of the pack.

As for your "this means nothing" comment, you are of course in error with that, it is not possible that data which gives information on the race could be without meaning. For example, the fact that the Giants have already been eliminated, a fact we only know because of the data, would seem a pretty meaningful thing, don't you think? From the data we learn how well the Nationals would have to play relative to the play of the teams ahead of them, in order to prevail. That means nothing to you? You fail to see any relevancy there?

That the data does not mean what you would like it to mean does not change the meaning, nor is the meaning suddenly rendered void. If the Nationals defy the odds and make the post season, that will not alter what the odds for them doing that on September 12th were, it will mean that they overcame long odds.
The problem with your data as I have previously mention is it does not account for trends. We have seen teams collapse and team surge at the end of seasons for the past few years. The Nationals aside, who would have ever thought the Reds would go 6-1 versus the Cardinals and Dodgers but then lose a series to the Cubs. Statistically speaking the opposite should have happened. The reality is there are way too many proponents that decide if a team will succeed or not. For instance, the Reds are about to get Cueto back. It's possible that they could go on a big winning streak with him back. Statistics don't account for trends like that and that is the reason why I believe it's flawed.
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Old 09-13-2013, 07:30 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,303 posts, read 18,643,446 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgtvatitans View Post
The problem with your data as I have previously mention is it does not account for trends. We have seen teams collapse and team surge at the end of seasons for the past few years. The Nationals aside, who would have ever thought the Reds would go 6-1 versus the Cardinals and Dodgers but then lose a series to the Cubs. Statistically speaking the opposite should have happened. The reality is there are way too many proponents that decide if a team will succeed or not. For instance, the Reds are about to get Cueto back. It's possible that they could go on a big winning streak with him back. Statistics don't account for trends like that and that is the reason why I believe it's flawed.
That is like arguing that the problem with ice cream is that it does not fix flat tires.

The data means what the data means, in this particular case it is not data designed to "account for trends", it is data designed to measure the odds. You should make sure that you understand what the data is saying before you criticize it for what it is not trying to say.

If the Nationals have a 2 % chance of making the post season, that comes from looking at all other seasons and counting the times that a team in the position Washington currently is in relative to the other teams, and the number of remaining games. If every 100 seasons, two teams have managed to come back from the sort of deficit the Nationals now face, then we know that the odds are about 50-1 of them making it this year..or, a 2 % chance. That is not zero chance, it is a 2 % chance, possible but highly improbable.

Trends, streaks etc, all irrelevancies in this model because those are not things subject to measurement/prediction based on the model employed. Those things are the flat tires you want your ice cream to fix.

Quote:
"Statistically speaking the opposite should have happened. "
Can you cite the statistics you used in formulating that conclusion? No, you cannot because you never consulted any, did you? You simply decided in your head that this is the case when in fact you do not know.
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Old 09-14-2013, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,303 posts, read 18,643,446 times
Reputation: 18792
The Nationals will not die....they are still on life support, but they will not die. Their current 9-1 stretch has moved them to within 4.5 games of the Reds for the second wildcard spot and they have jumped from a 2 % to a 5 % chance of reaching the post season.

It is still a long shot. If we postulate the Reds playing .500 ball the rest of the way, they end up with 90 wins. To win 90 games, the Nationals would have to go 12-3 from here to the end. That is asking a lot of a club which has just gone 9-1 in their last ten games because that would actually mean them going 22-4 in their last 26 games.

So, not impossible, and less impossible than it was a few days ago, but the Nats will still need some cooperation from the Reds. If Washington runs the table and wins all of their remaining 15 games, they wind up with 93 wins. The Reds win 93 games by going 10-4.
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