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Old 08-30-2013, 09:48 AM
 
Location: DMV
10,136 posts, read 11,645,983 times
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The Nationals, after being just terrible this year, are slowly creeping back into the wildcard hunt. I will admit I thought the season was done but I heard a radio show this weekend talking about the NL Central's remaining schedule compared to the Nats and it opened my eyes. Of all the teams in the Central, the Reds are clearly the team who could easily fall. Their schedule is awful. They still will play 4 against STL, 3 against LAD, and 6 more games against the Pirates. The Nats will play most of their schedule against NL East Teams below them (Phillies, Mets, Marlins) and only 3 games against the Braves, 3 against St Louis, and 3 against Arizona. The interesting part is all of the NL East teams have either major injuries or have shut down their ace (Marlins). Winners of 8 of 9, are the Nats going to catch the Reds (they have a winning record against the Reds this season in case of a tiebreaker). Do the Reds hear footsteps?
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Old 08-30-2013, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,946 posts, read 18,566,118 times
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St. Louis is listed as having a 99.1 % chance of reaching the post season. The Pirates are at 95.9 %, the Reds at 87.3%.

The Nationals are at 7.5 %.

Citing the National's winning 8 of their last 9 is actually evidence against rather than for their chances. That was a stretch of .888 ball and teams which play at that level for a stretch come back to Earth.

Further, the Reds have scored 92 more runs this season than they have yielded, they have won three fewer games than the Pythag projection suggests they should have. Washington has given up 9 more runs than they have scored this year, and have overachieved by winning three more than that figure suggests. In short, the Nats have been luckier than the Reds so far this season and they still trail Cincinnati by 6.5 games. Luck tends to even out the further the season progresses, so that suggests that the gap between the teams will get larger rather than smaller.

Finally, while it is not at all impossible for the Nationals to make up the 6.5 games, it certainly will require some extraordinary ball playing. If Cincinnati plays .500 ball the rest of the way, which is unlikely, they will end up with 89 wins. To reach 89 wins the Nationals would need to win 21 of their remaining 29 games which is .742 ball. If a team played .742 ball all year they would win 120 games. Coupled with the fact that they have just finished a stretch of playing .888 ball, that means winning 89 games will have required the Nationals to have played .809 ball from the last week of August through the end of the season.

So...not impossible, but very improbable.
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Old 08-30-2013, 10:46 AM
 
Location: DMV
10,136 posts, read 11,645,983 times
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I hear the stats you bring up but I think those things are irrelevant to how the team plays on the field. The Nationals have not been lucky at all, they have at times been awful. The reason why they have struggled is because their hitting has been bad. They have left many RISP and did not get on base a lot. Now in the past three weeks they have the best batting average in the league. Some would say it's because of a lighter schedule, which very well may be the case. The reality is no matter what the two team schedules are very uneven. The Reds are unfortunate to have two excellent teams in their division and unless they can find a way to win most of those 10 games, the Cardinals and Pirates alone will hurt the Reds. This is more about how you interpolate winning games against the teams that each have to play. You can throw stats out when you are talking about the Reds playing the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Pirates. Does anyone really see them escaping those games, winning at least half?
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Old 08-30-2013, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
12,199 posts, read 10,416,173 times
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That's my only issue with the new wild card system; while it better rewards teams who win their division, it creates unrealistic hopes for more teams to reach the one-game playoff. At least the OP still has interest in the season, but it is going to make the July trade deadline much less exciting as time goes on.
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Old 08-30-2013, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,946 posts, read 18,566,118 times
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pgtvatitans
Quote:
I hear the stats you bring up but I think those things are irrelevant to how the team plays on the field.
I do not understand the above. The stats are the chronicle of what has taken place on the field already, how can they possibly be irrelevant?

Quote:
The Nationals have not been lucky at all, they have at times been awful.
Apparently you are not familiar with luck when employed within the context of statistical probability. If a team scores 600 runs and gives up 600 runs over a period of games, then if those runs were distributed evenly over the course of the games played, the team would have a .500 record. Of course runs are not distributed evenly, they are distributed in random patterns. The Nationals have scored nine runs fewer than they have yielded, so an even distribution would leave them with a sub .500 record. That they are over .500 has been a matter of their good fortune in the random distribution of runs. That is not a talent or ability, it is simply random luck. The Nats have had it, the Reds have not. By random chance that situation will reverse itself over time.


Bill James developed his Pythagorean formula as a means for measuring how much of a team's record may be viewed as the product of random luck. The Nats are three games better than they should be, the Reds are three games worse. Therefore, the talent/performance difference between the two teams is greater than the current won/loss records indicate.

Quote:
You can throw stats out when you are talking about the Reds playing the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Pirates. Does anyone really see them escaping those games, winning at least half?
You can throw any information out, but that only increases one's ignorance.
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Old 09-01-2013, 11:01 PM
 
Location: Trumbull/Danbury
6,541 posts, read 4,490,735 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgtvatitans View Post
You can throw stats out when you are talking about the Reds playing the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Pirates. Does anyone really see them escaping those games, winning at least half?
Depending on pitching matchups, I say they split 4 with St. Louis, lose 2 of 3 to LA, lose 4 of 6 to Pittsburgh.
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Old 09-02-2013, 12:32 AM
 
Location: Mequon, WI
7,836 posts, read 19,570,106 times
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Shh..do you hear footsteps?

A: No! I hear someone lightening up their bong!
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Old 09-02-2013, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,957 posts, read 83,612,165 times
Reputation: 41764
Quote:
Originally Posted by Milwaukee City View Post
Shh..do you hear footsteps?

A: No! I hear someone lightening up their bong!
of course it is a long shot, to expect them to make it to post season play, but look at the Dodgers: in late June who would have guessed they would enter Sept with one of the best records in baseball. Who would have thought last year the Redskins would make it to post season? Let dreamers continue dreaming for the time being.....
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Old 09-03-2013, 03:29 PM
 
2,538 posts, read 4,031,288 times
Reputation: 3334
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgtvatitans View Post
The Nationals, after being just terrible this year, are slowly creeping back into the wildcard hunt. I will admit I thought the season was done but I heard a radio show this weekend talking about the NL Central's remaining schedule compared to the Nats and it opened my eyes. Of all the teams in the Central, the Reds are clearly the team who could easily fall. Their schedule is awful. They still will play 4 against STL, 3 against LAD, and 6 more games against the Pirates. The Nats will play most of their schedule against NL East Teams below them (Phillies, Mets, Marlins) and only 3 games against the Braves, 3 against St Louis, and 3 against Arizona. The interesting part is all of the NL East teams have either major injuries or have shut down their ace (Marlins). Winners of 8 of 9, are the Nats going to catch the Reds (they have a winning record against the Reds this season in case of a tiebreaker). Do the Reds hear footsteps?
If the Nats are still in it in your mind then so are the Diamondbacks. Neither likely has a shot. They are not the 69 Mets.
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Old 09-03-2013, 05:49 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
12,199 posts, read 10,416,173 times
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On the upside, this Nats team has created a real fanbase in DC and proven baseball can and will succeed in the nation's capital, win or lose.
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