U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Sports > Baseball
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 10-23-2013, 07:22 PM
 
20,923 posts, read 39,233,384 times
Reputation: 19219

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
I knew Wainwright was in trouble the minute he walked the leadoff man....
I can't tell you how many times I've turned to my wife and bemoaned a leadoff walk or single; uncanny how often that comes back to haunt a pitcher.

When that ball dropped in between Wainwright and Molina, I told the wife "it's amateur hour." In over 55 years of watching baseball on TV, that was about the most doofus play I've ever seen .... two guys standing there looking at each other like a couple of simps.
__________________
- Please follow our TOS.
- Any Questions about City-Data? See the FAQ list.
- Want some detailed instructions on using the site? See The Guide for plain english explanation.
- Realtors are welcome here but do see our Realtor Advice to avoid infractions.
- Thank you and enjoy City-Data.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-23-2013, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,170 posts, read 18,614,349 times
Reputation: 18751
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
I can't tell you how many times I've turned to my wife and bemoaned a leadoff walk or single; uncanny how often that comes back to haunt a pitcher.
.
It isn't actually uncanny, it is math.

With no one out and no one on at the start of an inning, the odds of scoring a run in that inning are 27.1%. With a runner on first and no one out (leadoff batter reaches) the odds improve to 40.2%. It comes back to haunt the pitcher about four times in every ten occurrences. If instead the pitcher had retired the first batter, the odds of scoring a run would have dropped to 15.8%.

So, that is all that is at work here...get the leadoff batter on and you have a 40% chance of haunting that pitcher, fail to do so and you have a 15.8% chance.

Here is a run expectancy chart for all possibilities.
http://www.stats.com/pdfs/MLB_ITN_runExpectancy.pdf
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-23-2013, 08:57 PM
 
20,923 posts, read 39,233,384 times
Reputation: 19219
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
It isn't actually uncanny, it is math.

With no one out and no one on at the start of an inning, the odds of scoring a run in that inning are 27.1%. With a runner on first and no one out (leadoff batter reaches) the odds improve to 40.2%. It comes back to haunt the pitcher about four times in every ten occurrences. If instead the pitcher had retired the first batter, the odds of scoring a run would have dropped to 15.8%.

So, that is all that is at work here...get the leadoff batter on and you have a 40% chance of haunting that pitcher, fail to do so and you have a 15.8% chance.

Here is a run expectancy chart for all possibilities.
http://www.stats.com/pdfs/MLB_ITN_runExpectancy.pdf
Yes indeed. I remember how Ricky Henderson used to leadoff for the Oakland A's and he'd manage to get a walk or a bunt single or whatever, and once on first he'd bedevil the hell out of the pitcher with his long leads and ability to steal second.
__________________
- Please follow our TOS.
- Any Questions about City-Data? See the FAQ list.
- Want some detailed instructions on using the site? See The Guide for plain english explanation.
- Realtors are welcome here but do see our Realtor Advice to avoid infractions.
- Thank you and enjoy City-Data.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-23-2013, 09:32 PM
 
Location: NJ
804 posts, read 1,380,628 times
Reputation: 725
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
I can't tell you how many times I've turned to my wife and bemoaned a leadoff walk or single; uncanny how often that comes back to haunt a pitcher.

When that ball dropped in between Wainwright and Molina, I told the wife "it's amateur hour." In over 55 years of watching baseball on TV, that was about the most doofus play I've ever seen .... two guys standing there looking at each other like a couple of simps.
Cardinals didn't play like they've been here before. Red Sox outplayed them by a whole lot. Only bright spot was Beltran's amazing catch and it was all for naught.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-23-2013, 09:39 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,356,272 times
Reputation: 36094
Cards played a game like that against the Dodgers, too. Snapped out of it the next day.

If those four easy balls would have been played, Wainwright would have been going into the 7th with a 4-hit shutout.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-24-2013, 01:06 AM
 
4,749 posts, read 3,614,240 times
Reputation: 3225
Boston's already got it wrapped up. Cardinals should just forfeit and spare themselves the embarrassment. Let FOX play its sitcoms.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-24-2013, 06:59 AM
 
10,262 posts, read 12,294,187 times
Reputation: 14171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankees1212 View Post
Cardinals didn't play like they've been here before. Red Sox outplayed them by a whole lot. Only bright spot was Beltran's amazing catch and it was all for naught.
I bet the Cards would have preferred him to let it go over the fence and not have gotten injured......That was a hard hit to the rib cage!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-24-2013, 07:00 AM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 21 days ago)
 
48,288 posts, read 45,576,705 times
Reputation: 15366
All of the teams I wanted to see in the World Series have since been eliminated, so for the first time in a very long time, I'm not watching the World Series. I'm boycotting it this year. Sore loser? Perhaps, but it is what it is with me.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-24-2013, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,356,272 times
Reputation: 36094
Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
All of the teams I wanted to see in the World Series have since been eliminated, so for the first time in a very long time, I'm not watching the World Series. I'm boycotting it this year. Sore loser? Perhaps, but it is what it is with me.
The only one I boycotted was the Mets/Yankees. I didn't watch a single pitch of it. I often watch very little of any seires the Yankees are in, after having them shoved down my throat every Saturday afternoon and Sunday and Wednesday night all season.

Actually, I consider the WS to be anticlimactic, and the real excitement is the race to get there. Getting on the field is the big thing, and then winning it is just a footnote. If a kid, a couple of generations from now, says "My Grampa played in the World Series", nobody is going to ask "Did they win?"

Last edited by jtur88; 10-24-2013 at 07:47 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-24-2013, 08:25 AM
 
10,262 posts, read 12,294,187 times
Reputation: 14171
Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
All of the teams I wanted to see in the World Series have since been eliminated, so for the first time in a very long time, I'm not watching the World Series. I'm boycotting it this year. Sore loser? Perhaps, but it is what it is with me.
Check into Daniel Nava and his story......you will be rooting for him and the Red Sox in no time!

Nava was a nobody, college teams wouldn't let him play (too small, too slow,etc) but he kept trying even becoming one team's equipment manager just so he could still work out with the team! Played AA ball, some AAA but all said he is just average. Red Sox got him on contract for $1 and he made his debut in June 2010. Played 30-35 games, cut for 2011, 2012 he wasn't even invited to spring training yet being Nava he showed up anyway and made the team. 2013 he is one of the best hitters in the American League yet Farrell still put Gomes in to play (calling it a "gut feeling"). Nava came in last night after Gomes did nothing with the bat and hit a double, stole 3rd and scored on the Bogarts sac fly.....longshot kid pays off again!

Nava's big league debut in 2010: Grand Slam at Fenway on his first pitch in MLB!


2010/06/12 Nava's grand slam - YouTube



From a fan's perspective:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA5xV2dNcwc
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Sports > Baseball
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top