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Old 09-25-2013, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,997 posts, read 18,573,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Illusive Man View Post
The most important factor to consider is your pitching staff come playoff time and the Dodgers have the best pitching staff in all of baseball. The Dodgers are ready to end that drought.
The matter has been studied and it turns out that hitting oriented clubs have won in the post season with the same frequency as pitching oriented clubs. Winning depends on performances, whether hitting or pitching.
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Old 09-25-2013, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Seattle, Washington
2,533 posts, read 3,956,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Illusive Man View Post
The most important factor to consider is your pitching staff come playoff time and the Dodgers have the best pitching staff in all of baseball. The Dodgers are ready to end that drought.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The matter has been studied and it turns out that hitting oriented clubs have won in the post season with the same frequency as pitching oriented clubs. Winning depends on performances, whether hitting or pitching.
That explains why the Braves didn't win 14 straight World Series with the best pitching staff in baseball.
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Old 09-25-2013, 01:05 PM
 
Location: NYntarctica
11,435 posts, read 6,407,950 times
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Hoping for a Pittsburgh vs Oakland World Series
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Old 09-25-2013, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
40,997 posts, read 18,573,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kees View Post
That explains why the Braves didn't win 14 straight World Series with the best pitching staff in baseball.
Good observation. The people who write and talk about sports for a living are obliged to dramatize events because their living depends upon the public being interested. The upshot is that we get all kinds of statements about momentum, wanting it the most, how different the post season is from the regular season, how pitching is more important in the post season, how important it is to stay focused and not have distractions etc. They say all this because either they do not know, or if they do understand they think it best not to say so in public, that the post season is a complete crap shoot and the major factor in determining the winner is random luck.

There seems like there should be a huge difference in talent between a 100 win team and a 90 win team, but there isn't, at least not when applied to who will win a specific five or seven game series. If you review the 100 win team's regular season schedule, breaking it down into seven game segments, you will easily find segments where the team has lost four out of seven games, and sometimes it was to the weakest teams in the league.

The 100 win team (.617 ball) would need to play the 90 win team (.555 ball) 21 times before a full one game expected advantage emerges ( 12,9 wins to 11.7 wins)...and remember, that is a one game advantage, the .617 team would be expected to prevail 11 games to 10.

Nothing brings out the cliches like the post season, the sports reporters all looking for that dramatic angle to play up, the players and managers delivering the regulation pablum about just going out there and playing hard for nine innings and not taking anything away from the opposition and playing it all one game at a time and just trying to stay within themselves while giving 110 % etc.

You may safely ignore all of it..you may as well be watching a dice rolling contest.
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Old 09-27-2013, 10:19 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,663 posts, read 74,281,369 times
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The most often repeated matchup would be the Cardinals against either Boston or Detroit -- both of whom they previously played in the WS in three different decades. Oakland has played Cincinnati and Los Angeles twice before. The Philadelphia A's played the Cardinals (twice back to back). Cleveland and the A's both played the Dodger franchise when it was known as the Brooklyn Robins, and the Robins also played the Red Sox.

First-time matchups could be:
Bos-Atl
Oak-Pit
Det-Atl, Det-LA
Cle-StL, Cle-Cin, Cle-Pit
TB-anybody
Tex-anybody except StL

Nine of the last 12 have been fist time matchups, the only repeaters being the Cards vs Bos and Det, and Yanks-Phils. There were only four repeating pairs in the 90's

An interesting note: When the Cubs played the White Sox in the third World Series in 1906, that was the last time that both WS opponents were making their first Series appearance. Every series since then has had at least one repeating franchise. The Rays and the Rockies missed by a year of doing it.

Last edited by jtur88; 09-27-2013 at 11:21 PM..
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Old 09-28-2013, 11:09 PM
 
Location: Seattle, Washington
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Last day of the season... Braves need a win and a Cardinals loss to get home field advantage...

I'm comfortable with whatever happens. If the Braves miss out on HFA they'll get the Dodgers. The Cardinals can battle it out with the PIT/CIN winner like they've been doing all season.

Braves won the season series against all the NL playoff teams so I'm confident.
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Old 09-30-2013, 09:23 AM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
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Sometimes it just pays to be hot at the right time. So Cleveland has better than a puncher's chance at getting to the WS if they win the play-in game.

IMO, the worst thing that could happen for MLB would be for Nelson Cruz to be positive factor in Texas winning it all.

As for NL, I imagine if you polled Cards fans on who they'd least like to face, it would be Pittsburgh. Maybe moreso in a five-game series than a seven-game. Both teams know each others strengths & weakness very well. And missing Craig in the NLDS is a big loss.

As a Bucs fan, assuming they get by Cueto on Tuesday, which has proved a bit of a challenge, I'd be least happy to face LA. Bucs are crappy in Chavez Ravine. And Braves aren't all that scary considering Bucs are 3-4 against them and were starting guys like James McDonald and Jonathan Sanchez in the April series while Braves were en fuego.
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Old 09-30-2013, 01:26 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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To win the WS this year, Texas or Tampa Bay will have to win 13 games. They may lose 8 and still prevail, as long as those two losses aren't in either of the next two games.

So at a minimum, those two clubs need to play .619 ball.

In the NL, the wild card entry will have needed to win 12 without losing more than 8, so the NL wild card must play at least .600 ball to win the WS, and of course the first game is critical.

The division winners need to win 11 games while losing 8 or fewer, or .578 ball.

A .619 club in the regular season wins 100 games.
A .600 club in the regular season wins 97 games.
A .578 team in the regular season wins 94 games.
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Old 10-01-2013, 04:50 PM
 
5,772 posts, read 13,732,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
While looking at the standings and wild cards today it occurred to me that 2013 could have a rust belt World Series:
- Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
- Detroit vs Pittsburgh

Also occurred to me that we could have an "all-Ohio" world series; wouldn't THAT be a hoot to see!
- Cleveland vs Cincinnati
Those are a couple of the match-ups that would make for good stories. In addition to the Buckeye Series, there's the possibility of a California series. This might be less of a story than an Ohio series, since there have been several other World Series all taking place within CA, including two with the CA teams in the playoffs this year. Still, intra-state series do tend to get some ink, and in the case of the potential match-up within CA this year you've also got the northern and southern CA culture clash.

Some other potentially interesting stories:

Red Sox-Dodgers: the big trade they made with each other. Which one got the better deal?

In addition to the Series history between the Cards and two of this year's AL contenders (Tigers, Sox), those interested in historical match-ups might be intrigued by a Boston-Pittsburgh series, 110 years later a rematch of the first World Series opponents.

Braves: They won a number of NL pennants in the late 19th century, when there was no other league's champion to face off against so this was in effect the world championship, but in the era of the modern AL-NL World Series, the Braves/Bees/Beaneaters/Doves/etc. have won the Series exactly once in each city in which they've been based--1914 in Boston, '57 in Milwaukee, '95 in Atlanta. Can they make it two in the same city?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
I predict a Boston - St Louis world series, based on their having outscored other teams by the most runs:
- Boston with a surplus of 185 runs
- St Louis with a surplus of 166 runs

Thoughts? (Other than all predictions are trash, which they are for the most part.)
I often feel that run differential can give good indication of who's likely to come out on top. After all, the basic idea is to score more than your opponents, by whatever combination of strengths you use to do that. It stands to reason that the team that does this best has the best shot at grabbing the big enchilada. However, I don't know any stats on how often the team with the best run differential actually comes out on top.

I'm from Boston and am a diehard Sox fan, so I know that team well. I hope I'm wrong, but their big vulnerability seems to me to be a shortage of true aces and near-aces on their pitching staff. The Sox this year seem to have what I describe as a containment policy pitching staff: only a few true aces and near aces but a lot of depth in decent to solid pitchers. This kind of staff combined with a lineup that can score like the Sox can adds up to a team built to rack up wins in the regular season.

A team deep in solid pitching seldom gives up so many runs that a game gets completely out of control, so if the team in question also scores a lot, they're going to win a lot of games 7-4, 8-3, 10-5, whatever. But if they're a bit short on aces, in the playoffs, when they're bound to run up against some top pitchers, there's the chance that they'll have a few games where they are shut down pretty well and end up losing 5-2 or something like that. And those few games can pretty much make the difference in a series. I hope I'm wrong in questioning the Sox' chances for this reason, but that's something to look for as the playoffs progress.
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Old 10-02-2013, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Monterey, CA
41 posts, read 42,874 times
Reputation: 67
Oakland A's vs Dodgers in World Series is my prediction with the A's winning it all! Im heading to Oakland on saturday to watch Game 2 of the Oakland Detriot series.
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