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Old 09-23-2013, 10:02 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
44,136 posts, read 19,307,274 times
Reputation: 19608

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If the awards were decided by WAR:

AL
Mike Trout 9.1
Josh Donaldson 8.11
Robinson Cano7.41
Miguel Cabrera 7.32

NL
Carlos Gomez 7.88
Andrew McCutchen 7.72
Clayton Kershaw 7.54
Paul Goldschmidt 6.84

Some comments. More than half of Carlos Gomez's WAR comes from his defense...4.42. While the voters have shown more confidence in advanced metrics over the last few years, it would represent a great leap of faith to vote on the basis of defensive metrics. In addition, the Brewers were not competitive, so Gomez was likely to be devalued on that alone. The NL MVP is actually between McCutchen and Kershaw.

Last year Trout had a higher WAR than MVP Miguel Cabrera, but a lot of the difference was the defensive metrics and the voters were more impressed by the triple crown. This year Trout is actually hurt by his defense, a -0.69 WAR, while Cabrera takes his usual glove hit, -1.39. Trout's superiority this year is rooted on stadium differences and Trout's baserunning. Sabermetrics credit Trout with 5.85 added baserunning runs above average while Cabrera again damages his WAR with -.47 baserunning runs. Once more I suspect that this distinction will not be embraced by the voters, and despite there being three WAR producers ahead of him, Cabrera's scoreboard stats will net him his second MVP.


For the Cy Young Awards, I cannot imagine Kershaw not winning in the NL. He is the league WAR leader, the ERA leader (1.88)...can't miss.

The AL is different. The favorite is Max Scherzer, but the WAR leaders are:
Chris Sale 7.26
Hisashi Iwakuma 6.64
Max Scherzer 5.99
Anibal Sanchez 5.90

Scherzer will win

Yasiel Puig seems a likely Rookie of the Year winner in the NL although Jose Fernandez of the Marlins compiled 6.0 WAR to Puig's 5.0 in two thirds of a season.

AL Rookie? Wide open...Jose Iglesias, Jarred Cosart, Wil Myers, David Lough?
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