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Old 02-25-2014, 04:53 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,163 posts, read 13,206,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Your understanding of the Moneyball concept is incorrect. It was never limited to any specific areas or positions. The idea is the employment of advanced metrics to uncover market inefficiencies which may be exploited by clubs which have limited budgets. It may be applied to any aspect of the game where an inefficiency may be found.

The Rays organization didn't call their use of the idea "Moneyball", they called it "The extra 2 %", a system which among other measures, utilized advanced metrics to uncover market inefficiencies which they could exploit. At least that is the information presented in the book "The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First" by Jonah Keri, which I have read.

From a review of the book:

BaseballAmerica.com: Majors: Book Guide: Book Review: The Extra 2%

It wasn't that good of a book. The Rays brass was smarter than Billy B and didn't blab away their industry secrets for all rivals to dissect. That was good for the club but made for a bad book because when you are finished reading, you still have little idea of the specifics the Rays used in bringing about their transformation. But that they did indeed use advanced metrics searching for inefficiencies to exploit, is unambiguously clear.
The Moneyball theory as you stated is based on advanced metrics which included war, salaries, etc... The Rays had a similar system to the Pittsburgh Steelers about 20-25 years ago. They would develop players and when it came time for them to cash in, they brought in their replacements that were not free agents.The difference is that the Steelers used the draft mor while Tampa used their minor league system. It can be very effective if you have good scouts and so far over the years, the Rays have done very well with this system.
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Old 03-01-2014, 12:33 AM
 
Location: Amherst
127 posts, read 141,286 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
The Moneyball theory as you stated is based on advanced metrics which included war, salaries, etc... The Rays had a similar system to the Pittsburgh Steelers about 20-25 years ago. They would develop players and when it came time for them to cash in, they brought in their replacements that were not free agents.The difference is that the Steelers used the draft mor while Tampa used their minor league system. It can be very effective if you have good scouts and so far over the years, the Rays have done very well with this system.

Are you suggesting that the Rays are making bone-headed draft picks on purpose? It's not like they're trading them away for major or minor leaguers.
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Old 03-01-2014, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,163 posts, read 13,206,923 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashley83 View Post
Are you suggesting that the Rays are making bone-headed draft picks on purpose? It's not like they're trading them away for major or minor leaguers.
What my observation is, is that the Steelers used to draft linebackers and they'd develop them and when the big payday was coming, they'd draft their replacement. In baseball the timeframe is a little more drawn out. Tampa frequently drafts guys, develops them, and then considers their options. The Steelers were letting their guys walk for years. The Rays weren't strong players in high priced free agents. They would draft and develop.
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Old 03-05-2014, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,281 posts, read 18,638,985 times
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Default Remember This Guy?

Quote:
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Johan Santana is hoping the Baltimore Orioles' patience with him pays off in another chance to pitch in the big leagues.

Santana was out of the majors last season while recuperating from surgery on his left shoulder. He signed a one-year, incentive-laden contract with the Orioles on Tuesday, and worked out with them for the first time on Wednesday.
Johan Santana trying for comeback with Baltimore Orioles - ESPN

Santana is another one of those guys who up to age 30 looked like a certain Hall of Famer, but in his five seasons with the Mets he was frequently injured and gave them only two full seasons of pitching. He had averaged 34 starts a year for the Twins before being traded, but just 21 starts a year for the Mets in exchange for the 80 million he was paid.

At 34, Santana is 139-78 (.640) with an ERA of 3.20, very impressive numbers. Whether he has anything left in the tank remains to be seen, the Orioles may luck out with this and if they do not, it is just a one year contract.
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Old 03-08-2014, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Default Matt Carpenter signs 6-year deal

Quote:
UPITER, Fla. -- Matt Carpenter called agreeing to a new $52 million, six-year deal with St. Louis a no-brainer. The Cardinals are hoping their third baseman sticks even longer than that.

"He's the type of player you'd like to think could finish his career as a Cardinal," St. Louis chairman and CEO Bill DeWitt said Saturday.
Matt Carpenter of St. Louis Cardinals signs contract extension - ESPN

Before last season I had predicted that if any player in MLB staged a come out of nowhere All Star season it was most likely to be Matt Carpenter. Matt went on to finish 4th in the NL MVP voting, so I feel vindicated in my oraculations.

But.....my prediction was based on a phenomena which I have identified, that of the good player who for whatever reasons, gets an unusually late start to his big league career. Carpenter fit the bill perfectly, having hit the snot out of the ball in four minor league seasons while getting only partial playing time with the Cardinals. Thus, it was at age 27 last year, smack in his prime, that Carpenter was getting his first full season shot at showing what he could do.

That is the key to such predictions...that while seeming like a newbie, Carpenter was actually at the age where he could reasonably be expected to generate his best production.

But...there is another aspect of the theory, that which takes place after that surprise season in his prime. Because he was great while radiating the aspect of a newcomer, we tend to overlook the fact that the performance did come in the player's prime and as such, should not be viewed as what we should expect every year after.

I would anticipate Carpenter having two more very good seasons, although unlikely to be better than his '13 campaign, and after that it is a question mark. However, the Cardinals made a very good deal for themselves, at an average of 8.6 million a season, even if Carpenter ceases to be of All Star caliber after he turns 30, that isn't ruinous money.
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Old 03-17-2014, 05:07 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,281 posts, read 18,638,985 times
Reputation: 18791
Default Puig Power Outage

Yasiel Puig's tremendous rookie season was weighted toward the first part, he posted an OPS of 1.038 in 151 at bats before the All Star break, and a more reasonable .854 OPS after. However, his bat went AWOL for the final month, posting a .214 batting average in 84 at bats and a .785 OPS.

And now he can't seem to get untracked in Spring Training. So far, in 41 at bats, Puig is batting .122 with no home runs.
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Old 03-19-2014, 06:40 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,163 posts, read 13,206,923 times
Reputation: 2489
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Yasiel Puig's tremendous rookie season was weighted toward the first part, he posted an OPS of 1.038 in 151 at bats before the All Star break, and a more reasonable .854 OPS after. However, his bat went AWOL for the final month, posting a .214 batting average in 84 at bats and a .785 OPS.

And now he can't seem to get untracked in Spring Training. So far, in 41 at bats, Puig is batting .122 with no home runs.
Is it time for a Kevin Maas comparison?
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