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Old 11-15-2013, 07:31 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,238 posts, read 18,624,767 times
Reputation: 18777

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aldous9 View Post
If you win the Triple Crown and you're on a winning team you're a frickin MVP. .
And if that same season there was another player in the league who though not winning the triple crown, created more winning value than the triple crown winner, that does not matter?

The point you raised which I do credit is the questionable reliability of the modern defensive stats. If we are to embrace their validity, then we must also accept that three of the ten greatest defensive seasons in all ML history, took place in 2013.

The top ten defensive WAR seasons from Baseball Reference:
1. Andrelton Simmons 5.4 2013
Terry Turner 5.4 1906
3. Art Fletcher 5.1 1917
4. Mark Belanger 4.9 1975
5. Ozzie Smith+ 4.7 1989
6. Carlos Gomez 4.6 2013
7. Brooks Robinson 4.5 1968
8. Mark Belanger 4.4 1968
Frankie Frisch+ 4.4 1927
10. Manny Machado 4.3 2013

Half of the list comes from just two seasons, 2013 and 1968.

Further, they alter the all time list all the time as new refinements to the evaluation system are made. A few years ago they had the all time greatest single season defensive season belonging to shortstop John Valentin's 1995 season for the Red Sox 4.5. I recalled Valentin and couldn't remember him being noted as any sort of outstanding defender. Now the list has shaved 1.5 points from Valentin's total, dropping him to 3.0 defensive WAR for that year, tied for the 144th best defensive season.

Finally, there are three major advanced defensive evaluation systems out there and there are whopping disagreements among them concerning lots of players.

Still, in terms of measuring offensive value along with a flawed measurement of defensive value, vs no measurement of defense at all, just offense, the former yields more information.
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Old 11-16-2013, 05:43 AM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,655 posts, read 5,711,274 times
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It's simply not - and generally never has been - the case where the "best player in baseball" will automatically win the MVP. Nor should it be that way. If one was going to go simply on WAR, then why even vote on it? Just take the leader.

I think the AL was pretty much a gimme as neither Trout nor Davis was on a playoff team. In the NL, I was expecting more votes for Molina (and more for Carpenter) to challenge Cutch, even though Goldschmidt was clearly ahead on the traditional numbers.

In many voters' minds, the consideration has been and continues to be: where would this team be without this guy? In the case of Trout, Davis and Goldschmidt, it doesn't much matter as their teams didn't advance anyway. The Tigers probably make the playoffs without an MVP calibre season (but something about league average) from Cabrera, and the Cards probably at least make the WC if Molina was less than Molina (but above replacement). However, the Bucs don't get to the WC without McCutchen. A 3 WAR centerfielder wouldn't have done it.

Of course there are also those "intangibles" (clubhouse, leadership/mentoring, etc.) that make SABR types cringe.

Others have posited that there should be another award for "Best Player" separate from MVP, in which case Trout would get a trophy and maybe Goldschmidt. I could get on board with that.
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Old 11-16-2013, 07:44 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
41,238 posts, read 18,624,767 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sskink View Post

Of course there are also those "intangibles" (clubhouse, leadership/mentoring, etc.) that make SABR types cringe.

.
Intangibles do not make SABR types cringe, people who ignore statistically established value in favor of intangibles might. Intangibles represent vague opinions on vague contributions, all of which resist any sort of precise measurement. How can such things be evaluated? In the case of intangibles we aren't talking about what the player did on the field, but rather what he inspired others to do on the field. Exactly how do we determine how many of one guy's home runs are the product of being inspired by a teammate's outstanding example and behavior? How many of Curtis Granderson's home runs do we credit to the inspirational aura put out by Captain Derek? How many of Cano's RBI's?

Since it is the sort of criteria which represents only someone's opinion on something which is impossible to know, adding intangibles to the MVP criteria is adding wild guesses.
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Old 11-16-2013, 01:25 PM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,655 posts, read 5,711,274 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Intangibles do not make SABR types cringe, people who ignore statistically established value in favor of intangibles might. Intangibles represent vague opinions on vague contributions, all of which resist any sort of precise measurement. How can such things be evaluated? In the case of intangibles we aren't talking about what the player did on the field, but rather what he inspired others to do on the field. Exactly how do we determine how many of one guy's home runs are the product of being inspired by a teammate's outstanding example and behavior? How many of Curtis Granderson's home runs do we credit to the inspirational aura put out by Captain Derek? How many of Cano's RBI's?

Since it is the sort of criteria which represents only someone's opinion on something which is impossible to know, adding intangibles to the MVP criteria is adding wild guesses.
Personally, I don't have an issue with that. IMO, unlike the ROY and CY awards, "team" is implicit in the MVP consideration, as in "how important was player X to his team vs. player Y to his," which is going to be a judgement call more often than not, but so what if it is? It's just not going to be strictly a stats issue and likely will almost always go to a player on a playoff team regardless of stats compiled by someone on a bottom feeder. Again, I have no issue with that.

The one thing about the fudge factor in MVP consideration that I don't like is in the "professional deportment" area where you've got sportswriters who may have grudges against players who don't cooperate fully with the press. However, even that didn't stop Bonds from winning a ton of MVP hardware.

FWIW, I'm a huge Bucs fan and even I was shocked at Cutch getting 28 1st place votes. And because I watch 18 Cards games vs. only 6 D'Backs games, I also have far more respect (and knowledge) of what Molina and Carpenter can do vs. Goldschmidt because I've seen those two kill the Bucs repeatedly both offensively and defensively, while Goldschmidt hasn't disrupted much of anything. I would imagine that's pretty much how the typical BBWAA member looks at things as well (thus both Molina 1st place votes coming from St.Louis members).

Thus, IMO, the only way the MVP award criteria is going to be significantly altered is if the BBWAA isn't the sole arbiter.
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Old 11-16-2013, 06:20 PM
 
Location: NYntarctica
11,449 posts, read 6,432,786 times
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I'm shocked that Clayton Kershaw didn't get a single 1st place MVP vote. His ERA is scary. Justin Verlander usurped Ellsbury's 2011 MVP title with a much more modest season, so I thought that Kershaw would at least be able to match Verlander in the voting department
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