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I'm nervous for the Pirates. They really had no incentive at all to throw Gerritt Cole, but they did anyways. Francisco Liriano who has been great in September pitched Saturday so their 2 best pitchers will be unavailable. Pirates have beaten Bumgarner twice this year and at home but, even at home I don't like the Volquez-Bumgarner match up at all. Think the Giants take that.
Over in the AL, A's squeaked in by the skin of their teeth, but they can be a dangerous club because pitching wins in October. This game is why Billy Beane traded Cespedes for Lester to have him available for a game like this. A's win in KC then beat the Angels in the ALDS.
I'll have predictions for the rest of the series later this week.
Yankees missed the playoffs by just 4 games. Is it safe to say not having A-Rod this year is the reason why?
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Yankees missed the playoffs by just 4 games. Is it safe to say not having A-Rod this year is the reason why?
Yankee thirdbasemen this season batted .259/.335/.392, OPS of .728
Rodriguez has been in a steady pattern of decline. His OPS for the last three seasons he has played:
2011 .823
2012 .783
2013 .771
It being quite unlikely that he would have had a better season at age 39, we might project a further decline on his part in 2014, perhaps an OPS around .755.
Further, Rodriguez has also been in a defensive decline, Defensive WARs of -0.6 and -0.5 the last two seasons. The two main Yankees at third this season were Solarte and Headley who combined for a positive defensive WAR of 0.6.
Overall Solarte and Headley combined for 3.5 WAR this season. The last two seasons Rodriguez has put up 2.2 and 0.5 WAR.
There is nothing in the numbers to suggest that the Yankees would have even been as good this season with Rodriguez in the lineup, much less four wins better.
fwiw, Pirates payroll is $81.4, which includes all the Sept callups plus incentive bonuses paid to Liriano and others. Still below A's, but $10 mill more than stated.
I'm nervous for the Pirates. They really had no incentive at all to throw Gerritt Cole, but they did anyways. Francisco Liriano who has been great in September pitched Saturday so their 2 best pitchers will be unavailable. Pirates have beaten Bumgarner twice this year and at home but, even at home I don't like the Volquez-Bumgarner match up at all. Think the Giants take that.
a) Hurdle discussed this with the players' leadership group. They all agreed Cole should pitch. Collmenter (AZ's starter) has been just about as good as Wainwright in Sept. But more important to the team, the Pirates spent six months trying to win the division. No point in not trying in game 162.
b) Volquez has been better than Liriano over the past month and a half. Volquez is the 2nd best starter in NL in September, behind Jake Arrieta. Bumgarner is 35th in that time (of note, Peavy is 6th).
c) No matter who the Bucs would play in the WC game, it would likely be that team's best pitcher. And since they've beaten Bumgarner already, I wouldn't be too concerned about the Bucs' own confidence.
d) Personally, I'd be more concerned with the Bucs' bullpen, which after 26 days in September looked great, but the last two days have looked horrendous.
b) Volquez has been better than Liriano over the past month and a half. Volquez is the 2nd best starter in NL in September, behind Jake Arrieta. Bumgarner is 35th in that time (of note, Peavy is 6th).
c) No matter who the Bucs would play in the WC game, it would likely be that team's best pitcher. And since they've beaten Bumgarner already, I wouldn't be too concerned about the Bucs' own confidence.
You have mentioned the Bumgarner over Peavy business several times in different posts and I wonder if you are placing over reliance on a database composed of one sample. Bumgarner had a bad day in Pittsburgh back on July 28th, lasting four innings while giving up five runs. In his start just before that he had gone 8 innings against the Phillies giving up zero runs, and in his first start after being knocked around by the Pirates, he pitched a two hit shutout against the Mets. He had an off day in Pittsburgh, but with just the one sample, that does nothing to predict what he would do in another start there two months later.
This month Bumgarner has two starts against the Dodgers. In one he got nipped for four runs in seven innings, in the other he pitched seven shutout innings. Does one of those starts predict the other?
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