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Just image if the Cubs or Pirates were in the East and got to play 57 games against the Braves, Nats & Marlins (the 3 worst teams record wise in baseball since the All Star Break) instead of 36 games against each other & the Cardinals?? I think each would have 85 wins by now and the Cards would have 95 easily if they got to feast on the East teams.
Looked at the numbers and you are correct with your basic idea.
Cardinals:
Overall .641
vs NL East .692
Pirates:
Overall .600
vs NL East .724
Cubs:
Overall .578
vs NL East ..615
Your win projections are overly generous. Even if the Cardinals had played the NL East exclusively this season, a .692 winning percentage would have them at 81 wins, not 95. The Pirates win total in the same situation would be boosted to 83 wins as a consequence of their .724 winning percentage. The Cubs go from their 67 wins to 71.
The Pirates have played .875 ball vs the NL West, but are 21-29 in their own division.
Looked at the numbers and you are correct with your basic idea.
Cardinals:
Overall .641
vs NL East .692
Pirates:
Overall .600
vs NL East .724
Cubs:
Overall .578
vs NL East ..615
Your win projections are overly generous. Even if the Cardinals had played the NL East exclusively this season, a .692 winning percentage would have them at 81 wins, not 95. The Pirates win total in the same situation would be boosted to 83 wins as a consequence of their .724 winning percentage. The Cubs go from their 67 wins to 71.
The Pirates have played .875 ball vs the NL West, but are 21-29 in their own division.
I think even what you showed is overly generous, as the truest way to analyze this would be to show a swap of games. If we say Bucs are + .124 vs East, and they get 72 East games vs (guessing as it isn't uniform) 36?, that is .124 * 36 or 4.4 more wins. They are on pace for 97, so that would be 101-102 in 162 games.
Cards .051 * 36 game swap is 2 wins. Cubs .037 * 36 games is 1 win.
Looked at the numbers and you are correct with your basic idea.
Cardinals:
Overall .641
vs NL East .692
Pirates:
Overall .600
vs NL East .724
Cubs:
Overall .578
vs NL East ..615
Your win projections are overly generous. Even if the Cardinals had played the NL East exclusively this season, a .692 winning percentage would have them at 81 wins, not 95. The Pirates win total in the same situation would be boosted to 83 wins as a consequence of their .724 winning percentage. The Cubs go from their 67 wins to 71.
The Pirates have played .875 ball vs the NL West, but are 21-29 in their own division.
I went with the 85 & the 95 numbers, with all else on the schedule being equal, the Cubs replaced 19 games with the Cards, 19 games with the Pirates for 19 games with the Nats and 19 games against the Marlins. The Cubs finished 4-3 so if you took that to a full 19 game series that would equal an 12-7 record those 19 games. I'm not sure if the Cubs played in Florida yet, but they swept them in Chicago so let's say they win 4 of every 6 games that would equate to a 13-6 record over that time frame. Then you take the 19 games against the Cards and only play them 7 games. I'm not sure what the overall record is, but they still have a few series left, and the Cubs record is pretty bad. Let's say they finish 8-11, if they only played 7 games that's probably only a 3-4 record. Maybe they wouldn't be at 85 wins right now but I think by the end of August the Cubs and Pirates would clear 85 wins easily, and I still think the Cards would be at 85 easily right now and would shatter the MLB record of 116 wins set by the '01 Mariners.
Madison Bumgarner's three hit, one walk, thirteen strikeout performance today against the Nationals produced a game score of 94, making it the sixth best pitched game of the year. The gamescore does not include offensive contributions, otherwise if you added in Bumgarner's RBI double and home run, it would shoot to the top.
The # 1 spot, and the # 5 spot on the list are held by Max Scherzer, who has turned in a 100 and a 97 game this year. (and those were back to back performances, June 20th and June 24th) On Friday night Scherzer's gamescore was 24.
he also outhit the entire Nationals team as they finished with 3 hits all singles. I think last month in DC he didn't even make it out of the 5th inning.
he also outhit the entire Nationals team as they finished with 3 hits all singles. I think last month in DC he didn't even make it out of the 5th inning.
Nats lineup now reminds me of Mets lineup 2 months ago. Today's lineup for Nats had 6 starters, w/o pitcher, at .247 BA or lower.
Mets had 4 of 8 .249 or lower, but one, Granderson, has 20 homers.
You're in 2nd due to Met starting pitching keeping it close until the deals, Conforto, and d'Arnaud returned. Plus I think it is obvious now expectations regarding the Nats were too high. Especially given two middle of lineup guys (Zimmerman & Werth) past their prime, with rapidly declining batting averages. That reduces Harper's ABs per game.
I know it was Nats 2015 or bust, and bear in mind, not only are Met pitchers young, but I expect Marlins to be much better in '16 with a full Fernandez year. Greinke is the CY '15, but I expect DeGrom, Kershaw, & Fernandez year in, year out in the hunt. With Scherzer in the next tier, getting votes, but no top 3 votes most years.
Last edited by BobNJ1960; 08-16-2015 at 10:23 PM..
I think even what you showed is overly generous, as the truest way to analyze this would be to show a swap of games. If we say Bucs are + .124 vs East, and they get 72 East games vs (guessing as it isn't uniform) 36?, that is .124 * 36 or 4.4 more wins. They are on pace for 97, so that would be 101-102 in 162 games.
Cards .051 * 36 game swap is 2 wins. Cubs .037 * 36 games is 1 win.
You are correct, that is why I wrote "even if they had played exclusively against the NL East", which of course they couldn't, so right away you know we aren't trying to be exact. I wanted to show that the suggested projections were too high, and employed a quick and dirty means to that point.
You are correct, that is why I wrote "even if they had played exclusively against the NL East", which of course they couldn't, so right away you know we aren't trying to be exact. I wanted to show that the suggested projections were too high, and employed a quick and dirty means to that point.
I understand. Truthfully, once MLB went past 24, no schedule could be balanced. 4 six team divisions had the perfect 162-18 per vs 5 in division, 12 per vs other 6. No interleague.
A-Rod blasted a dramatic grand slam last night, Yankees Twitter coined #baerod, complete with the lovestruck smiley replacing the o. That's both the worst and the best baseball nickname of all time
With the Royals opening a commanding 13.5 game lead in the Central (have they officially won the division yet??) I pose this questions to the great folks on the baseball forum at CD:
Will the Royals finish with a larger division lead then the other 5 divisions combined at seasons end?? Right now the Royals lead by 13.5 while the other 5 division leaders lead by a combined 15 games with the Mets (+4) and Cardinals (+4.5) the next 2 largest leaders.
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