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Old 08-01-2017, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
5,393 posts, read 9,489,586 times
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Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero were close in 2017 and will probably get in. Then there a bunch of steroid guys who may or may not be on a lot of ballots. There's room for Thome to be a first ballot guy, but I'm not sure he will be, despite the home run total. He'll probably be eighth all time by the time of voting but home run totals have been inflated over past generations, and playing about a third of his career at DH may make some people hesitate. On the other hand, he's probably around the same level as recent first ballots Pudge and Frank Thomas, though Thomas always felt like a more dominant figure than Thome.

Agree that Jones gets in first ballot. As far as the others, I don't think any are first ballot, but a couple have a chance to get in:
Johnny Damon - no shot
Andruw Jones - great power and fielding, but fell off the cliff too soon to be in the hall
Jamie Moyer - should go directly to the Veterans Committee
Scott Rolen - lifetime numbers are light for hall of fame but his fielding, production, and playing on a good Cardinals team with a lot of playoff experience could make him closer than I would have initially thought
Johan Santana - dominant pitcher but injuries cut his career too short
Omar Vizquel - I'd expect him to get in eventually - great fielder, batted .400 in postseason, longevity
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Island of Misfit Toys
4,914 posts, read 1,980,479 times
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None of those. No way any are first ballot.
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Old 08-02-2017, 01:08 PM
 
1,935 posts, read 2,841,806 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maf763 View Post
Jamie Moyer - should go directly to the Veterans Committee

I've heard of this. What exactly is it?
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Old 08-02-2017, 03:41 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
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My comment was a joke. There is no longer a veterans committee, but rather Eras committees that consider whether to induct non-players or players who are no longer eligible under the normal ballot.
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Old 08-02-2017, 05:13 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
36,220 posts, read 17,198,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maf763 View Post
My comment was a joke. There is no longer a veterans committee, but rather Eras committees that consider whether to induct non-players or players who are no longer eligible under the normal ballot.
There should no longer be any sort of committee with such a function. It is a structure which can produce only diminishing returns. With the exception of only the Expansion era group, unlike the regular HoF vote, the pool of talent remains stagnant. There aren't going to be any new players from the Golden or pre-integration eras, so whenever anyone is inducted, those that follow will by definition have been lesser candidates, as will be those who follow the lesser candidates. The longer the practice is sustained, the lower the merit of the inductees will be.
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Old 08-02-2017, 06:13 PM
 
Location: Northwest Arkansas
481 posts, read 320,201 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonasW View Post
None of those. No way any are first ballot.
Well you are a moron and thank God you aren't a voter. You obviously don't watch baseball. I think most can agree Chipper and Thome get in first ballot. Thome based off the sheer number of homers. 600 HR club? Ofc he is in. Chipper is arguably the third best switch hitter ever, and was a key cog during many of the Braves record 14 straight division titles. He also won a world series, can't remember if Thome did, but Thome hit one of the AQ marks for me, 600 homeruns. For me I'd prob let anyone in who either gets 3k hits like Beltre just did, or 500 homeruns.
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Old 11-21-2017, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Default Joe Hates the 'Roiders

Joe Morgan asks voters to block PED users from Hall of Fame
Quote:
Morgan wrote. "Many of us have come to think that silence will be considered complicity. Or that fans might think we are ok if the standards of election to the Hall of Fame are relaxed, at least relaxed enough for steroid users to enter and become members of the most sacred place in Baseball. We don't want fans ever to think that.

"We hope the day never comes when known steroid users are voted into the Hall of Fame. They cheated. Steroid users don't belong here.

"Players who failed drug tests, admitted using steroids, or were identified as users in Major League Baseball's investigation into steroid abuse, known as the Mitchell Report, should not get in. Those are the three criteria that many of the players and I think are right."
Joe Morgan asks voters to block PED users from Baseball Hall of Fame

There are currently four players on the ballot who fit the Morgan criteria, they are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Gary Shefield (Mitchell Report) and Manny Ramirez.(flunked two tests)

The drawback to thisis that it leaves room for those who were suspected but never caught. Piazza and Bagwell were subject to rumors, and Ivan Rodriguez was ratted out by Jose Canseco who wrote that he had personally injected Irod. All three have been enshrined.
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Old 11-21-2017, 02:54 PM
 
665 posts, read 308,057 times
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My feeling is that Chipper Jones gets in first ballot. Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman are pretty much a lock to get in as well given how close they got last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jim Thome got in this year as well, but he might also fall a bit short.

I don’t expect any of the other newcomers will ever get in except possibly Omar Vizquel. I don’t think he has a HoF case (he strikes me as the SS version of Harold Baines, or at best Luis Aparicio without the stolen bases), but some of the voters inexplicably seem to think he’s deserving.

Scott Rolen certainly has a HoF worthy argument, but I suspect he’ll be lucky not to be one and done. A shame, too.
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Old 11-21-2017, 02:56 PM
 
665 posts, read 308,057 times
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Oh, and Joe Morgan is a moron. Hated him as an announcer, too.
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Old 11-21-2017, 05:28 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
36,220 posts, read 17,198,202 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bachslunch View Post

Scott Rolen certainly has a HoF worthy argument, but I suspect he’ll be lucky not to be one and done. A shame, too.
I checked out his career. The eight gold gloves are a positive, the career 70.0 WAR is the 67th highest among position players. Six All Star appearances isn't bad, but doesn't dazzle. Those would be the arguments in favor.

Against that are the MVP finishes, 4th once, but 14th, 20th and 24th the other times he received any votes. It doesn't seem like the writers watching him play thought of him as MVP material, and they will be the same ones voting on his HOF chances.

Looking at the list of ten players with the closest similarity scores we have:

Paul O'Neill (884.1)
Shawn Green (882.6)
Matt Holliday (882.1)
Bobby Bonilla (879.7)
Reggie Smith (879.4)
Aramis Ramirez (878.2)
Ron Santo (876.8) *
Fred Lynn (875.4)
Ken Boyer (871.0)
Ellis Burks (870.0)

Except for Santo who was ushered in by the old timers committee a year after he died, none of them are Hall of Famers, none of them ever came close in the voting.

I would predict that if Rolen ever does make it to the Hall, it will be by a path similar to Santo's.
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