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Old 09-25-2017, 01:32 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
37,066 posts, read 17,464,329 times
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The MVP awards seem like locks....Jose Altuve in the AL and Giancarlo Stanton in the NL.

The NL Cy Young will come down to either Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. I would vote for Scherzer, he has more innings pitched, a higher K per 9 innings rate and a lower DIPs than Kershaw.

In the AL, I suspect that the voters will go for Corey Kluber who leads the league in wins and in ERA. However, I think that the more deserving winner would be Chris Sale.

Kluber is 18-4, 2.27, striking out 11.9 batters per nine innings.

Sale is 17-7, 2.75, striking out 12.9 batters per nine innings.

They have nearly identical K to walk ratios, Kluber 7.28, Sale 7.32.

The difference occurs when you examine defense independent stats. Kluber has been fortunate with a .254 BABIP while Sale has had just normal luck, allowing a .295 BABIP. The upshot of this is that Sale's DIPs ERA drops to 2.26 while Kluber's rises to 2.46.

Sale has been the better pitcher, Kluber has been the luckier pitcher.

Both are having fantastic years and it would not be some horrible misfire if Kluber wins, but Sale is the more deserving.
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Old 09-25-2017, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Cleveland
2,193 posts, read 3,336,731 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The MVP awards seem like locks....Jose Altuve in the AL and Giancarlo Stanton in the NL.

The NL Cy Young will come down to either Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. I would vote for Scherzer, he has more innings pitched, a higher K per 9 innings rate and a lower DIPs than Kershaw.

In the AL, I suspect that the voters will go for Corey Kluber who leads the league in wins and in ERA. However, I think that the more deserving winner would be Chris Sale.

Kluber is 18-4, 2.27, striking out 11.9 batters per nine innings.

Sale is 17-7, 2.75, striking out 12.9 batters per nine innings.

They have nearly identical K to walk ratios, Kluber 7.28, Sale 7.32.

The difference occurs when you examine defense independent stats. Kluber has been fortunate with a .254 BABIP while Sale has had just normal luck, allowing a .295 BABIP. The upshot of this is that Sale's DIPs ERA drops to 2.26 while Kluber's rises to 2.46.

Sale has been the better pitcher, Kluber has been the luckier pitcher.

Both are having fantastic years and it would not be some horrible misfire if Kluber wins, but Sale is the more deserving.
I was at Progressive Field in August to watch the Tribe tee off on Sale, like they always do. I have a different perspective on this "luck" than you do.

Kluber should win easily, and will. On the heels of a season where he pitched until Game 7 of the World Series, he's done absolutely everything one can ask from a starting pitcher aside from missing a few starts. Sale will get an automatic bump in votes for being on the Red Sox, but it won't be enough.

Kluber leads the league in wins, ERA, complete games, and shutouts, and has been impeccable down the stretch, playing a leading role in an incredibly dominant stretch of baseball played by the league-leading Indians, which included a 22-game win streak. And because he plays for Cleveland, people still do mental gymnastics to convince themselves that he shouldn't win the Cy Young.
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Old 09-25-2017, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
37,066 posts, read 17,464,329 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns View Post
I was at Progressive Field in August to watch the Tribe tee off on Sale, like they always do. I have a different perspective on this "luck" than you do.
.
The Cy Young award is based on the entire season, not on one game.

Quote:
And because he plays for Cleveland, people still do mental gymnastics to convince themselves that he shouldn't win the Cy Young
I hope you are aware that the club is irrelevant in my analysis. Sale has been superior in what I regard as the most important stats....DIPs, Ks per nine innings and has been Kluber's equal in strikeouts to walks ratio and slightly better in home runs yielded per nine innings. The rest is noise...BABIP, the quality of the gloves behind them, wins and losses...those are the things over which pitchers have little or no control.

Consequently, I view the pitcher who was best in the three true outcomes statistics, as the one who was the best pitcher in the league. Where he pitches is one more chunk of noise in the evaluation.
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Old 09-25-2017, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Cleveland
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It's much more than one game that the Indians have beaten up on Sale. But anyway:

Cy Young voters will see the best starting pitcher in the American League over the last 4 1/2 seasons, who pitches for the best team in the AL, with the best pitching staff in the AL, who is having his best season, who any manager would take as his playoff ace over anyone else in the AL, and they will vote for Kluber. But you're certainly free to carry on about how "luck" and "noise" have played any significant role in Kluber's success.
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Old 09-25-2017, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
37,066 posts, read 17,464,329 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns View Post
It's much more than one game that the Indians have beaten up on Sale. But anyway:

Cy Young voters will see the best starting pitcher in the American League over the last 4 1/2 seasons, who pitches for the best team in the AL, with the best pitching staff in the AL, who is having his best season, who any manager would take as his playoff ace over anyone else in the AL, and they will vote for Kluber.
I think that a survey of managers would be more informative than your blank assertion about who they would pick.

Quote:
But you're certainly free to carry on about how "luck" and "noise" have played any significant role in Kluber's success.
As you are to continue to fail to understand that nothing I have written may be construed as an attack on Cleveland or on Kluber. What I have written about luck applies to Kluber only relative to Sale. It was not an assertion that Kluber owes his success to luck, as you have for some reason, decided is what was being said.

Both pitchers have been great. That Kluber enjoys an advantage in the noise stats, has been the product of being slightly luckier than Sale.
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Old 09-26-2017, 10:08 AM
 
2,036 posts, read 2,892,438 times
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As a Dodgers fan I almost think it should go to Scherzer. But it's close.

I do hope Jose Altuve wins it. Mark Derosa seems to think Aaron Judge should on MLB Network. I hope that doesn't happen. If Judge had an average closer around .300 & had about 50 less strike outs I would think different.
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Old 09-26-2017, 08:40 PM
 
Location: Virginia
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Sale gave up 5 ER in 5 innings today. That won't help.
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Old 09-27-2017, 10:03 AM
 
2,036 posts, read 2,892,438 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tgbwc View Post
Sale gave up 5 ER in 5 innings today. That won't help.

I don't see how Kluber doesn't get it anyway. Chris Sale has the K's but as of right now the ERA is 2.90 vs 2.27. That's just two big of a gap between the two pitchers.

I know ERA isn't the best stat to look at but with a gap that large it's hard to ignore IMO.
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Old 09-27-2017, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
37,066 posts, read 17,464,329 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Statz2k10 View Post
I don't see how Kluber doesn't get it anyway. Chris Sale has the K's but as of right now the ERA is 2.90 vs 2.27. That's just two big of a gap between the two pitchers.

I know ERA isn't the best stat to look at but with a gap that large it's hard to ignore IMO.
ERA is not a bad stat as conventional stats go, but is also subject to altering noise. The quality of the defense behind the pitcher, the inclinations of official scorers, and the luck involved when a batted ball is hit to a defender or just out of his reach...these are all things over which a pitcher has no control and all of those things have an impact on earned runs.

We might also consider that an error is an opinion, not a fact. Whether a batted ball's outcome gets recorded as a hit or an error, gets decided by someone who must judge whether or not "ordinary" effort would have retired the batter.

So while ERA is generally good, there are ways to make more precise determinations which eliminate the background noise. Defense independent stats are one way, they calculate what a pitcher's ERA would be if he was backed by a league average defense. If your ERA goes down when calculated as DIPs, that means that the defense behind you has been worse than league average, if your DIPs is higher than your ERA, that means you have been backed by higher than average defenders. DIPs ERA is superior to conventional ERA because it evaluates only those things over which the pitcher has control....strikeouts, walks and home runs.
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Old 09-27-2017, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
37,066 posts, read 17,464,329 times
Reputation: 16835
Quote:
tgbwc
Sale gave up 5 ER in 5 innings today. That won't help.

The poor outing by Sale has created the situation where as of this morning, both Kluber and Sale have identical DIPs ERAs...2.46.
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