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Old 02-18-2018, 11:41 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
33,849 posts, read 16,695,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Relative to MLB pitchers overall, Wheeler is worth $1.8, and the Mets offer was fairly close, just 17% less, so they also disagreed, but only slightly, not greatly.

$300k in MLB gap is chump change..
If we accept the above as true, why then did the Mets go to arbitration on this? Arbitration involves the club representative laying out the case as to why the player involved wasn't as good as he believes and consequently, undeserving of the amount he is asking. It is the club knocking down its own assets and risking alienating the player via the needs of the process.

So, why would the Mets do this for what amounts to "chump change?"

The fact that they did it makes me suspect that the Mets know something about Wheeler's health or fitness to continue his career, that has not been disclosed to the public. In 2018 it will be four seasons since Wheeler last demonstrated that he belonged in a ML rotation.
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:45 AM
 
2,943 posts, read 858,165 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Relative to MLB pitchers overall, Wheeler is worth $1.8, and the Mets offer was fairly close, just 17% less, so they also disagreed, but only slightly, not greatly.

$300k in MLB gap is chump change.
Based on his extensive research into similar players Grandstander has very strong opinions that that 17% difference is
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
bleeping bleep
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:54 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
33,849 posts, read 16,695,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Arbiters don't decide from the gut. They decide based on the evidence presented to them.

.
I'll ignore the denial fest and respond to this bit of naivete. Arbiters are indeed supposed to render their conclusions on the basis of the evidence, but they are also human beings. Juries are supposed to decide cases based only on the evidence, but they wind up using all sorts of unpredictable reasons.

Before going into the hearing last month, I spent preparation time with the attorney we engaged to represent us. He was a veteran of hundreds of arbitration hearings and I asked him about the very thing you mention above. I pointed out that the case seemed to come down to whether the arbiter embraced the ridiculously complicated formula the other side's expert was providing for calculating reasonable rent rates in the county, or embracing the ridiculously complicated formula our hired expert had produced. It was a matter of both sides arguing as unfairly as possible on their own behalf....so how will the arbiter decide? The attorney told me that she would go back, study all the documents and testimony involved, check that against the current rules of arbitration in California...and then make a decision based on her personal sympathies accompanied by a very legal sounding explanation as to why those sympathies are in line with the law.

The decision is due this coming Friday. I'll let you know how it comes out if you are interested.

In the meantime, why don't we steer clear of one another on this forum? We have established that we do not work or play well together and that our personalities and egos are too much alike for this animosity not to keep happening.
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:08 PM
 
14,581 posts, read 5,311,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
If we accept the above as true, why then did the Mets go to arbitration on this? Arbitration involves the club representative laying out the case as to why the player involved wasn't as good as he believes and consequently, undeserving of the amount he is asking. It is the club knocking down its own assets and risking alienating the player via the needs of the process.

So, why would the Mets do this for what amounts to "chump change?"

The fact that they did it makes me suspect that the Mets know something about Wheeler's health or fitness to continue his career, that has not been disclosed to the public. In 2018 it will be four seasons since Wheeler last demonstrated that he belonged in a ML rotation.
Mets front office makes bad decisions, alienates players big time (Turner, Murphy, etc). Their record in making decisions STINKS, so why would I trust them. A smart team would, by now, have inked DeGrom 5 more years. Would not have traded Duda unless Smith first proved himself. Would not spend 8.5 on a has been Cabrera. Instead, 300k is a "prioriy"!

As a long-time Met fan, I was hoping Katz would sell which could only be done by converting his shares to voting stock, which would bump Wilpons out. (They own minority % all stock, majority voting stock).

While I doubt Wheeler can make 30 starts, I also doubt Harvey can. But neither salary should command a 30 start NL pitcher. 15-18 Wheeler starts at .500 make 1.8m a bargain, btw.
I doubt, in the same quantity of games, will Vargas be any better, btw, at 8 mill/year.
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Old 02-18-2018, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
33,849 posts, read 16,695,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
15-18 Wheeler starts at .500 make 1.8m a bargain
Well, not yet. If Wheeler gets hurt and sits out another year, it won't represent a bargain. Further, the 1.8 million isn't all that is involved here. Wheeler was paid $546,250 for not playing at all in 2015, another $546,250 for not playing at all in 2016, and 800 grand in 2017 for 86 innings where he posted a 5.21 ERA. So, Wheeler got paid $1,893,500 over three years for producing 0.3 WAR. That has all been money in a dumpster for the Mets. A sense of justice suggests that Wheeler owes the Mets some positive returns on their investment before any salary of his could be viewed as a bargain.
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Old 02-18-2018, 02:02 PM
 
14,581 posts, read 5,311,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Well, not yet. If Wheeler gets hurt and sits out another year, it won't represent a bargain. Further, the 1.8 million isn't all that is involved here. Wheeler was paid $546,250 for not playing at all in 2015, another $546,250 for not playing at all in 2016, and 800 grand in 2017 for 86 innings where he posted a 5.21 ERA. So, Wheeler got paid $1,893,500 over three years for producing 0.3 WAR. That has all been money in a dumpster for the Mets. A sense of justice suggests that Wheeler owes the Mets some positive returns on their investment before any salary of his could be viewed as a bargain.

Nonsense.

1.893 mill not getting negative WAR is actually a bargain.

Injuries happen. 2 years is long, but they were 2 cheap years. DL stints are hardly unusual anymore.

Contracts lock both sides in. DeGrom, for instance, has been Underpaid vs his value if you want justice. But you appear ok with that. If FA eligible, we'd be talking $15-$18 mill annually, at minimum, for DeGrom, the last 3 years.

Wheeler: 1.8 million is quite reasonable, as a outside FA equal replacement would cost far more.
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Old 02-18-2018, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
33,849 posts, read 16,695,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Nonsense.

1.893 mill not getting negative WAR is actually a bargain.

Injuries happen. 2 years is long, but they were 2 cheap years. DL stints are hardly unusual anymore.

Contracts lock both sides in. DeGrom, for instance, has been Underpaid vs his value if you want justice. But you appear ok with that. If FA eligible, we'd be talking $15-$18 mill annually, at minimum, for DeGrom, the last 3 years.

Wheeler: 1.8 million is quite reasonable, as a outside FA equal replacement would cost far more.
Okay, I believe you, but suspect that your generosity is the product of none of this being your money going down the drain. If you can imagine similar scenario, scaled down in money to more realistic figures for we commoners, where you are the owner and Wheeler was your employee, would your attitude be as casual?
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Old 02-18-2018, 02:14 PM
 
14,581 posts, read 5,311,564 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Okay, I believe you, but suspect that your generosity is the product of none of this being your money going down the drain. If you can imagine similar scenario, scaled down in money to more realistic figures for we commoners, where you are the owner and Wheeler was your employee, would your attitude be as casual?
It would be, as again, with multiple good young pitchers, I never expect all 5 healthy.

All lost full seasons-DeGrom in minors, other 4 lost all or most of a year in NL.

I still think Wheeler can be a serviceable 4 or 5, 20-24 start guy. I do want a little healthier motion from him. Delivery almost as troubling as Lincecum was. I view a total of 3.6 mill so far as a decent investment towards the future, plus ZW has 21 career wins. 150k a win is hardly unheard of.

Harvey I would have watched leave.
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Old 02-19-2018, 04:04 AM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,799 posts, read 23,984,018 times
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salary dump continues in TB....Odorizzi and Dickerson, gone ....saves them about $10 mil/yr salary. Look for Span to go next.
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Old 02-19-2018, 04:18 AM
 
2,943 posts, read 858,165 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
If we accept the above as true, why then did the Mets go to arbitration on this? Arbitration involves the club representative laying out the case as to why the player involved wasn't as good as he believes and consequently, undeserving of the amount he is asking. It is the club knocking down its own assets and risking alienating the player via the needs of the process.

So, why would the Mets do this for what amounts to "chump change?"

The fact that they did it makes me suspect that the Mets know something about Wheeler's health or fitness to continue his career, that has not been disclosed to the public. In 2018 it will be four seasons since Wheeler last demonstrated that he belonged in a ML rotation.
Yet, they still thought that he was worth nearly a 100% raise.

But we're here arguing about the 17% difference between the two offers.

You're taking a grand stand that a 125% increase in salary is "bleeping bleep" but an 88% increase is fine. And you've based that on?
I'm going to say absolutely nothing, since you, as a person quite familiar with how arbitration hearings work, have presented absolutely nothing that's relevant in deciding between those two numbers.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Well, not yet. If Wheeler gets hurt and sits out another year, it won't represent a bargain. Further, the 1.8 million isn't all that is involved here. Wheeler was paid $546,250 for not playing at all in 2015, another $546,250 for not playing at all in 2016, and 800 grand in 2017 for 86 innings where he posted a 5.21 ERA. So, Wheeler got paid $1,893,500 over three years for producing 0.3 WAR. That has all been money in a dumpster for the Mets. A sense of justice suggests that Wheeler owes the Mets some positive returns on their investment before any salary of his could be viewed as a bargain.
Pretty selective endpointing there.
2015 to 2017 isn't all that's involved there either.

According to Fangraphs' calculations, Wheeler has produced nearly 4 WAR in his career. The value of that WAR on the open market is $29 million. He's been paid about $2 million.
*https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...sition=P#value

I think most would consider $29 million in services rendered for a cost of $2 million, a pretty good bargain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Okay, I believe you, but suspect that your generosity is the product of none of this being your money going down the drain. If you can imagine similar scenario, scaled down in money to more realistic figures for we commoners, where you are the owner and Wheeler was your employee, would your attitude be as casual?
If I had an employee that had shown themselves capable of producing $20 an hour before an injury, would I be willing to pay them $1.80 an hour to see if they could get close to producing at that level again? You know, I think I would.


A few projections, FWIW
Wheeler 1.6 WAR in 116 innings
Vargas 1.6 WAR in 157 innings
*https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=25

The Mets decided that Vargas was worth $16 million dollars
It seems pretty clear that Wheeler is a bargain at less than $2 million.
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