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Old 01-20-2018, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
You didn't answer my question

Why would you suppose I would answer yours?

?
And the irony goes rocketing right over your head.
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Old 01-20-2018, 11:31 AM
 
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Grandstander, as currently constructed, how many games would you expect this team to win?

Do you think the projections overrate the team?
If so, why?
And, if you would, who specifically?
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Old 01-20-2018, 12:21 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Grandstander, as currently constructed, how many games would you expect this team to win?
Between 0 and 162. Of course I could miss by 19 games and still do better than Fangraph's 2017 projection.

Quote:
Do you think the projections overrate the team?
You seem to forget that I actually have read what goes into formulating the projections. I understand their value, and I also understand their limitations. I am left wondering if you understand the limitations part. The projections are designed so that the larger the database, the more accurate the prediction. They are based on what has come before, are they not? They use standard regression techniques, do they not? They are more likely to be accurate when projecting the standings of an entire division than in projecting the performance of a single team. They are more likley to be accurate when projecting the performance of a single team than they are an individual player. They are more likley to be more accurate in projecting an individual player's OPS than they are in projecting how many walks he will draw. Of course the operative word here is "likely", which leaves a lot of room for error on the individual level. That these projections missed the Giants actual performance by 20 games last season, should tell you that you are still dealing with a guess. An educated guess, yes, a guess more likley to be accurate than a wild stab in the dark, a guess that you could probably make money on if you were able to bet on a large enough pool of projections, but they remain guesses.

You seem to be trying to represent the Giants projection for 2018 as money in the bank. It is not.





Quote:
And, if you would, who specifically?
I suspect that there is a word or two missing from the above. If I would what? And who what?
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Old 01-20-2018, 03:21 PM
 
3,576 posts, read 1,067,898 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Between 0 and 162.
And if you had to graph that, would you have the probability of each win total be 1/162?
If not, which win totals would you think most probable?
To save us the trouble, if you answer something like "between 60 and 100" I'll ask a similar question.



Quote:
You seem to be trying to represent the Giants projection for 2018 as money in the bank.
Was it when I said this
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Why do you say everything has to go right?
The projections are the median projections, not the rose colored glasses projections.
that you thought I was representing the projections as money in the bank?
Or something else?

The projections on FGs are just three (Steamer, ZiPS, and FG's combination) opinions on where the Giants stand in 2018.
You have another opinion.
The Giants' F/O has another.

The Giants are making moves that suggest they believe that the team will be competitive in 2018.
It appears that you disagree with that due to the team's poor performance last season.
Which suggests that you think the projections are overrating the Giants in 2018.
Thus
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Do you think the projections overrate the team?
If so, why?
And, if you would, who specifically?
I suspect that there is a word or two missing from the above. If I would what? And who what?
If you would - be so kind as to give a clear answer
Who - specifically, do you think they are overrating?



It's certainly possible that there is a systemic problem with the projections and they are overrating the Giants.

Is it your belief that, while the projections thought the Giants would be ok last year, the Giants were a bad team - that the projections were wrong?
Or is it your belief that the coin just landed tails more than heads?
Or something else?
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Old 01-20-2018, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post

The Giants are making moves that suggest they believe that the team will be competitive in 2018.
It appears that you disagree with that due to the team's poor performance last season.
Which suggests that you think the projections are overrating the Giants in 2018.
I disagree with that for other reasons. I stated them in a post before you made your appearance in this particular discussion. I wrote:
Quote:
Last year saw the end to San Francisco's long string of consecutive sellouts at AT&T. That may have triggered a panic in the front office and these name player signings represent their idea of a solution.
I have been watching for evidence that the Giants are making use of their metrics department, and instead keep getting hints of the reverse. They are minimalists when it comes to defensive shifting, Bochy remains a champion of the bunt, the importance of youth and speed in the outfield seems lost on them. Then there has been the throwing of long term big bucks at a closer, and more at guys entering the decline portions of their career.

The minor leaguer who was the throw in on the McCuthchen trade turned out to be Bryan Reynolds, He has been a .300 hitter with reasonably good on base skills, and modest power in two seasons of A ball. He is 22 and plays the outfield. To illustrate how bankrupt the farm system is, Reynold was the team's first draft pick in 2016, but because SF has lost picks to free agent signings, he was taken 59th overall. And now he is gone for one year of McCutchen.

I can't imagine any of the above is the product of advise from their metrics department.

For that reason I doubt that those who are making these recent decisions for the Giants, were doing it under the idea that their projection from Fangraphs looked promising.
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Old 01-22-2018, 06:40 PM
 
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My own assessment, which is supported by the projections we've mentioned, is that this is a team on the bubble.

The moves they've made, including today's acquisition of Austin Jackson, indicates the F/O feels the same.
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Old 01-22-2018, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
36,966 posts, read 17,437,867 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
My own assessment, which is supported by the projections we've mentioned, is that this is a team on the bubble.

The moves they've made, including today's acquisition of Austin Jackson, indicates the F/O feels the same.
Well, that is one of your assessments. In the free agent signing thread, your analysis of the Longoria deal was:
Quote:
Problem is that the Giants don't look real competitive for 2018 - .500 team. A wild card is within reach. The division looks nearly impossible.

Then, they've traded from an already weak farm system and taken an additional burden for the future.

Given themselves a small chance in 2018 and less of a chance in the future.
So, I guess if you predict all possible outcomes you will be right about one of them.

If you believe that the Giants are being foolish and wrecking the future by trying for a longshot at the wild card in 2018, then why have you been arguing with me about all this?
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Old 01-22-2018, 08:34 PM
 
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So, my stating that they are "on the bubble" and the wild card being "within reach" is predicting all possible outcomes?

Remember, what I'm arguing isn't weather I think this is the right move it not, it's how much last year's performance should be used to inform decisions about this year's team
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Old 01-23-2018, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
So, my stating that they are "on the bubble" and the wild card being "within reach" is predicting all possible outcomes?

Remember, what I'm arguing isn't weather I think this is the right move it not, it's how much last year's performance should be used to inform decisions about this year's team
No, characterizing the deal as the Giants mortgaging their future for a very slim shot at the wild card in 2018, and then arguing with me about how they are being reasonable in going for it in 2018.....that was what I was referencing. Of course I think that you already understood this and are now trying to disown it.
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Old 01-23-2018, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Austin Jackson's defensive WARs the last two seasons:

2016 -0.4 in 54 games
2017 -0.3 in 85 games

Andrew McCutchen's defensive WARs the last two seasons:
2016 -2.6
2017 -1.1

Hunter Pence's defensive WARs the last two seasons:
2016 -0.8
2017 -0.8


So who is going to catch the ball out there?
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