Official Oakland A's thread (wild card, MLB, Yankees, Indians)

[Grandstander]

They probably won't reach a point where they become competitive, but the A's are improved and making progress. I'm thinking that 80-84 wins this season is realistic given the talent which they have on hand.

Right now they are a middle of the pack team in all indicators. They are 7th in the AL in runs, 6th in the AL in preventing runs, 7th in home runs, very much a league average team.

The AL: .247/.316/.414...average of 77 home runs per team
The A's: .242/.312/.412..82 club home runs.

The A's offense always works best when built around power, the stadium does not lend itself to sequential offenses. They are probably one power hitting outfielder away from contending.

[7express]

I’m thinking somewhere between 78-86 wins when it’s all said and done Grandstander. Not a playoff team, but if they can stay in the race until the middle to end of September I’ll take that from them.

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by 7express

I’m thinking somewhere between 78-86 wins when it’s all said and done Grandstander. Not a playoff team, but if they can stay in the race until the middle to end of September I’ll take that from them.

They are seven and a half games behind for the second wild card spot with three teams ahead of them for that 2nd spot. And two of those teams are in the AL West. The good news is that the A's get to play those teams a lot and could control their own destiny by beating the petunias out of em. The bad news is that so far the A's have been getting the petunias beaten out of them by the other teams in the division. They are 13-7 vs the tough AL East, 8-2 vs the AL Central, 3-3 in interleague play, a combined 24-12 (.666 ball, a pace for 106 wins.) But against their own division mates they are a sad, sorry 10-21. (.322 ball, a pace for 52 wins)

[Grandstander]

The A's are really a tease this season, stretches where they look really good and raise your optimism, followed by stretches where they look like they are in it way over their heads. After beating KC 4-3 on Sunday, Oakland was 34-32, making one think that with a good second half they could contend. Then they returned to what has been their biggest problem...playing the other teams in the AL West. This time it was three against the best, Houston, and the A's got schooled. In the first game Houston scored what would prove to be the winning run in the second inning, in the second game they scored it in the first inning, and did that again in the third game. The A's held a 1-0 lead in the first inning of the second game, and promptly lost it, meaning that in the series, they trailed the Astros in 26 of the 27 innings played. Outscored 26-11 overall, things were never even as close as those lopsided numbers suggest.

[Grandstander]

The A's finally did something they have been having great difficulty doing....winning a series within their division. The A's have played 12 series against AL West opponents and today's win over the Angels marks only their second series win within the division. (The other was April 24, took two of three from the Rangers)

And they did it in style today, winning an 11 inning game with a walk off hit.

[7express]

Grandstander did the recap: 3 game sweep for the Astros to open the week with none of the games even that close, lost the opener to Anaheim so got you thinking "here we go again" ) but rebounded to take the 2nd and 3rd game and to win the series. 10 game road trip upcoming all against teams under .500 so now's the time to make a move. 2 games in San Diego Tuesday & Wednesday and than 4 in Chicago against the White Sox starting Thursday

[Natural510]

Susan Slusser article on possible end of the Beane-Forst-Melvin era (which is a good thing, should it happen):

https://www.sfgate.com/athletics/art...p?t=e1b3023c72

[Grandstander]

Beane used to be effective when he was the only one employing advanced metrics to uncover hidden advantages. He never should have cooperated with Lewis in the writing of "Moneyball." That book showed how Beane had accomplished his miracles and allowed imitators. Had the rest of the league been left to figure it out for themselves, it would have delayed for years the rise of the metric oriented GM's and the A's would have retained the advantage. Now all clubs are privy to the same sophisticated data which provides an advantage, unless your opponent is using it as well.

Beane used to be able to level the field between the A's and the wealthy clubs by being smarter. Now the wealthy clubs are just as smart.

[Natural510]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

Beane used to be effective when he was the only one employing advanced metrics to uncover hidden advantages. He never should have cooperated with Lewis in the writing of "Moneyball." That book showed how Beane had accomplished his miracles and allowed imitators. Had the rest of the league been left to figure it out for themselves, it would have delayed for years the rise of the metric oriented GM's and the A's would have retained the advantage. Now all clubs are privy to the same sophisticated data which provides an advantage, unless your opponent is using it as well.

Beane used to be able to level the field between the A's and the wealthy clubs by being smarter. Now the wealthy clubs are just as smart.

Great points. Theo Epstein basically merged Beane's metrics with large payrolls to bring championships to Boston and Chicago. I doubt he would've been able to do the same in, say, Tampa Bay.


Another fatal flaw of Beane's approach was defying the human aspect of baseball, ultimately culminating in the Cespedes trade debacle. While statistics are important, it is still a human who must carry out the athletic accomplishment, and a demoralized workforce is rarely as productive as a satisfied one.

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by Natural510

Another fatal flaw of Beane's approach was defying the human aspect of baseball, ultimately culminating in the Cespedes trade debacle. While statistics are important, it is still a human who must carry out the athletic accomplishment, and a demoralized workforce is rarely as productive as a satisfied one.

I agree that it is a problem, but rather than viewing it as a flaw, I see it as an inescapable aspect of doing business at an economic disadvantage. I think that the team would draw more fans and have a higher public profile if it was able to develop and retain stars, but the money isn't there for the retaining part. By necessity, the A's must be satisfied with whatever production they get from their players while they are under club control. The good ones will be able to command much higher salaries and/or longer deals than the A's are in a position to offer.

Another thing which has damaged Beane's effectiveness was the changes made to the compensation for free agent loss rules. The one benefit to being unable to retain the star players was that when they left, the A's would get a special second round compensation draft pick. Bleeding free agents was a good way to beef up your farm system. But then, almost as if they were doing it specifically to frustrate Billy, they came up with that high qualifying offer business, and this wrecked Beane's gravy train because the A's couldn't afford to risk having the player accept the qualifying offer.

Beane's contract expires after 2019, but he will remain a part owner of the club, so getting rid of him if he does not want to leave may be troublesome.