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On several occasions I have responded to posts which advanced the idea that certain teams had what it takes to reach the post season but not what it takes to win in the post season. I explained that the idea is a non-starter, there is no such thing as a team which suddenly loses its ability to win in the post season because of the way that they were constructed.
The false notion about "post season" teams stems at least in part from a massively misinterpreted remark from Billy Beane who after several failures said "My _hit doesn't work in the post season." What Beane meant was that analysis based planning relies on large sample bases to recognize trends and exploit knowledge gaps. He did not mean that his teams were incapable of winning in the post season, just that for short series, the metrics don't apply because the sample base is so small.
Yesterday the Dodgers GM, Farhan Zaidi, and club president Andrew Friedman, addressed this issue when asked to explain the Dodgers loss in the Series.
Quote:
Friedman was later asked whether another World Series loss was a failure of the players or a failure of the system, and he wasn't as polite.
"So, it works for the regular season, works for the [division series], works for the [championship series], but then in the World Series it's a failure -- yeah, that's a great question," Friedman said, mockingly. "I don't know how to answer that question. I really don't. I don't know how anything works for a regular season, a DS and a CS, but then doesn't work for the World Series."
On several occasions I have responded to posts which advanced the idea that certain teams had what it takes to reach the post season but not what it takes to win in the post season. I explained that the idea is a non-starter, there is no such thing as a team which suddenly loses its ability to win in the post season because of the way that they were constructed.
The false notion about "post season" teams stems at least in part from a massively misinterpreted remark from Billy Beane who after several failures said "My _hit doesn't work in the post season." What Beane meant was that analysis based planning relies on large sample bases to recognize trends and exploit knowledge gaps. He did not mean that his teams were incapable of winning in the post season, just that for short series, the metrics don't apply because the sample base is so small.
Yesterday the Dodgers GM, Farhan Zaidi, and club president Andrew Friedman, addressed this issue when asked to explain the Dodgers loss in the Series.
As a Dodgers fan I'll say this. Not exactly related to this particular post. But the Red Sox were just a better team. Dodgers barely won the division. They beat a young Braves team. Just got by a Brewers team in which game 2 could have easily gone the other way around. So I think the Dodgers finally met a team that was not going to lose to them.
As a Dodgers fan I'll say this. Not exactly related to this particular post. But the Red Sox were just a better team. Dodgers barely won the division. They beat a young Braves team. Just got by a Brewers team in which game 2 could have easily gone the other way around. So I think the Dodgers finally met a team that was not going to lose to them.
The Dodgers barely winning their division was largely a product of poor luck in run distribution. Their + 194 run differential was the third best in all MLB, behind the Red Sox and the Astros. That run differential should have produced 103 wins rather than 92.
The 2018 Dodgers should be viewed as the best of the NL and not judged on the basis of things over which they had no control.
The post season is crapshoot. This year the best team in baseball won, but that is not something which happens with regularity. In 2017 the Indians were the best team but the Astros won the Series. In 2016 the Cubs were the best team and they won the Series. In 2015 the Blues Jays were way better than the Royals (run differentials of +221 to +83) but KC wound up champs. In 2014 there were seven-count-em-seven teams with better run differentials than the Giants, but....
You get the idea, you can check on this yourself in earlier years but you'll find that there is no established relationship between being the best team in the regular season and winning the WS.
Bryce Harper rejected the Washington Nationals' offer of approximately $300 million over 10 years late last season, according to multiple reports. Washington tried to lock up Harper with one of the richest deals in baseball history before he became a free agent, but he opted to test the market. According to reports, the Nats' offer is now off the table, but the team is still open to a deal.
Evidently Scott Boras believes that he can do better than a 300 million dollar, ten year deal.
It is consistent with how Boras clients typically do business. He encourages them to hit free agency to see what the offers look like rather than re-signing with their current clubs before making it to free agency. I imagine that Harper will end up with a contract north of $300 million. It won't really matter, though, as Boras & Harper will likely build in a couple of opt-out clauses into whatever contract they agree to and will certainly opt-out during the early-to-mid portion of the contract to go score an even bigger deal.
It is consistent with how Boras clients typically do business. He encourages them to hit free agency to see what the offers look like rather than re-signing with their current clubs before making it to free agency. I imagine that Harper will end up with a contract north of $300 million. It won't really matter, though, as Boras & Harper will likely build in a couple of opt-out clauses into whatever contract they agree to and will certainly opt-out during the early-to-mid portion of the contract to go score an even bigger deal.
I suspect that Boras might be over estimating interest in Harper at a rate higher than what has been offered. Harper is an extremely difficult player for whom to predict his future. His WARs for his first seven seasons:
2012 5.2
2013 3.7
2014 1.1
2015 10.0
2016 1.5
2017 4.7
2018 1.3
2019 ?
His average for the seven years is 3.9 WAR, which isn't a player worth 30 million a year should he continue to be in that zone.
Front office personnel are better informed than they used to be and the metric oriented people on the staffs are going to be waving caution flags. The best aspect of Harper is that he is only 26 as he enters free agency and his next boss will not be paying for his decline period for the first half of any ten year deal. They will be for the second half.
My final offer on Harper is 250 at 10 with an opt out after year 5 (would be the end of his age 31 season). If he wants more money or more years or a sooner opt-out we can say thank you for your time and your success here, but we are looking elsewhere. We haven't won anything with him, so it's not like he got us to great heights or anything that we'll be missing.
And as I've been stating the whole season I'd rather NOT resign him anyways because we certainly aren't keeping both Harper & Rendon (due after next year) and I'd much rather resign Rendon.
And by the way, no wonder people probably hate him. Every time I get an At Bat notification it's "Harper this, Harper that, Report: Harper turned down $300 million extension in September." Enough!! I'm a Nats fan and I'm sick of this! Just tell me where he signs and for how much.
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