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Old 02-16-2010, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,296 posts, read 6,852,372 times
Reputation: 6517

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Quote:
Originally Posted by skylar0201 View Post
That's true, but he did say he "wanted to finish my career with the Phillies," in a phone interview with ESPN, even after the trade was made.
Even with the M's defense, he'll still be taking a downgrade in comparison with the Phils defense and especially, offense. The only thing he'll have going is he'll be pitching in a park that is significantly larger, but he's also going to be back to facing the typical 9 real hitters again in the AL; as compared to the eight hitters in the NL.
If Lee has an ERA of about 4.00 or even higher ( a bad year for him ), there is a very good chance the Phils could get him back, because his value as he will become a F/A ( unless the M's give him an extension mid-year ), will drop, which will open the door for the Phils to get back into the bidding for his services.
Keep dreaming. I'd be stunned if the Phils get him back.

Last year the M's turned 71.4% of hit balls into outs-2nd in the league.
The Phillies were good at 69.4%, but not better.

Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Team Pitching

Both teams lost their defensive stand out 3Bmen. The Phils responded with PP while the M's got Figgins. Win for the M's-the best defensive team in baseball.

Cliff doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and should give up even less.

There's no reason to think that Lee is going to do anything different this year than he has the last two. And he will probably look better in doing so.

EVEN IF he has a poor year, the Phils won't be the only team bidding on him. Now, if he has some desire to play in Philadelphia, I think only he knows that.
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Old 02-16-2010, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Oregon
483 posts, read 608,817 times
Reputation: 197
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Keep dreaming. I'd be stunned if the Phils get him back.
Last year the M's turned 71.4% of hit balls into outs-2nd in the league.
The Phillies were good at 69.4%, but not better.
Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Team Pitching
Both teams lost their defensive stand out 3Bmen. The Phils responded with PP while the M's got Figgins. Win for the M's-the best defensive team in baseball.
Cliff doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and should give up even less.
There's no reason to think that Lee is going to do anything different this year than he has the last two. And he will probably look better in doing so.
EVEN IF he has a poor year, the Phils won't be the only team bidding on him. Now, if he has some desire to play in Philadelphia, I think only he knows that.

Ok, first of all, the stat that shows the M's turned more balls into outs--that is because of the park they play in--not because they are better defensively.

Secondly, Lee averages a HR per 9 innings. Not bad and not great. What's even more interesting is that he actually pitched better as an NL pitcher ( true, it was only half a season ) than he has as an AL pitcher, and his career ERA in the AL is 4.01. Here is Lee's stat line:

Cliff Lee Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Third, you might want to check who actually had a higher fielding % in 2009: M's was .982 and Phils were .989.

Fourth, Figgins fielding % in 2009 was .968, Polanco was .997
Fifth, even over their careers at what will be their 2010 positions, Figgins fielding % career at 3B is .958, Polanco is .982. Even when it comes to their range at 3B, the two are basically identical in '09 and over their careers.

No, win for the Phillies. The only thing the M's are gaining in having Figgins over Polanco is Figgins is quite a bit faster, but with the Phillies having the best SB % in '09 as well as even '08, I don't think that was a concern for them.

Lastly, don't even get me started in comparing Figgins vs. Polanco in postseason play....
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Old 02-16-2010, 10:33 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,296 posts, read 6,852,372 times
Reputation: 6517
Quote:
Originally Posted by skylar0201 View Post
Ok, first of all, the stat that shows the M's turned more balls into outs--that is because of the park they play in--not because they are better defensively.
Maybe you like this one better. 2009 UZR Ratings
Seattle 12.0 UZR/150 1st in the league
Phillies 6.2 UZR/150 6th in the league. Good, but not as good.
Quote:
Secondly, Lee averages a HR per 9 innings. Not bad and not great. What's even more interesting is that he actually pitched better as an NL pitcher ( true, it was only half a season ) than he has as an AL pitcher, and his career ERA in the AL is 4.01. Here is Lee's stat line:
Cliff Lee Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com
Yes. ERA tends to drop about half a point when going from the AL to the NL due to DH and other things.
Lee was also a completely different pitcher before it clicked in 2008. Plus he only spent half a year in the NL.
Of course his AL ERA is higher
Quote:
Third, you might want to check who actually had a higher fielding % in 2009: M's was .982 and Phils were .989.
Fielding percentage? Really? Fielding percentage only measures how many errors you make. Take the following example.
3Bman A has 100 balls hit to his area. 50 of them find his glove and he makes no errors. The other 50 roll into left field.
3Bman B has 100 balls hit to his area. 75 of them find his glove and he makes 5 errors. The other 25 roll into left field.
Player A has a fielding percentage of 100%
Player B has a fielding percentage of 93.3%
You take the guy with the better fielding percentage, I'll take the better 3Bman.
Quote:
Fourth, Figgins fielding % in 2009 was .968, Polanco was .997
See why fielding percentage sucks.
Also, PP has only played about 350 innings at 3B since 2002. And 0 innings since 2005. He's a good defender at second but he's old and hasn't played there in a while. He may turn out to be a good 3Bman, but it's no guarantee. Figgins is one of the best defensive 3Bmen in baseball.
Quote:
Fifth, even over their careers at what will be their 2010 positions, Figgins fielding % career at 3B is .958, Polanco is .982. Even when it comes to their range at 3B, the two are basically identical in '09 and over their careers.
See why fielding percentage sucks.
Polalco's career range runs at 3rd = 3.8 / 2427 innings = .0014/9
Figgins' career range runs at 3rd = 23.5/4513 innings = .0468/9

They are not basically identical. Figgins is much, much better than Polanco was when Polanco was 5 years younger and playing 3B regularly. It's next to impossible to believe that Polanco will be better now than he was then.

Quote:
Lastly, don't even get me started in comparing Figgins vs. Polanco in postseason play....
Good. What a player does in 122 at bats (for Figgins) and 81 at bats (for Polanco) vs what they do in their entire career is next to meaningless.
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Old 02-16-2010, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Oregon
483 posts, read 608,817 times
Reputation: 197
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Maybe you like this one better. 2009 UZR Ratings
Seattle 12.0 UZR/150 1st in the league
Phillies 6.2 UZR/150 6th in the league. Good, but not as good.
Yes. ERA tends to drop about half a point when going from the AL to the NL due to DH and other things.
Lee was also a completely different pitcher before it clicked in 2008. Plus he only spent half a year in the NL.
Of course his AL ERA is higher
Fielding percentage? Really? Fielding percentage only measures how many errors you make. Take the following example.
3Bman A has 100 balls hit to his area. 50 of them find his glove and he makes no errors. The other 50 roll into left field.
3Bman B has 100 balls hit to his area. 75 of them find his glove and he makes 5 errors. The other 25 roll into left field.
Player A has a fielding percentage of 100%
Player B has a fielding percentage of 93.3%
You take the guy with the better fielding percentage, I'll take the better 3Bman.
See why fielding percentage sucks.
Also, PP has only played about 350 innings at 3B since 2002. And 0 innings since 2005. He's a good defender at second but he's old and hasn't played there in a while. He may turn out to be a good 3Bman, but it's no guarantee. Figgins is one of the best defensive 3Bmen in baseball.
See why fielding percentage sucks.
Polalco's career range runs at 3rd = 3.8 / 2427 innings = .0014/9
Figgins' career range runs at 3rd = 23.5/4513 innings = .0468/9
They are not basically identical. Figgins is much, much better than Polanco was when Polanco was 5 years younger and playing 3B regularly. It's next to impossible to believe that Polanco will be better now than he was then.
Good. What a player does in 122 at bats (for Figgins) and 81 at bats (for Polanco) vs what they do in their entire career is next to meaningless.
Ok, that chart you sent to me, why is it inconsistent? I know you don't like to compare fielding %, but according to that chart, the Phils had even a higher % than the M's ( Phils .989 vs. M's .969 which is even a larger difference than what I first quoted you ). Why is it that chart is incorrect on that stat?

Also, the two comparisons you gave, between player A and player B. The 5 errors that player B would make would be worse, because player B runs the risk of each error he does make, how many of those have the potential to turn into runs allowed? Quite often than not, when a team makes an error, ( or a pitcher allows a walk or two ), a run will result. That would be a costly mistake for the player that made the error ( much less 5 of them over the same course of time as another player at his position making none. )

I agree that Polanco will be rusty at 3B but as far as saying Polanco is "old" is over-exaggerating the point. Figgins is just over 2 yrs younger which isn't much difference. Again, Figgins will have a slight advantage here which helps his speed factor.

What a player does in the post season isn't meaningless. If anything, it shows how they can perform in the clutch, not a meaningless stat for a team trying to reach the post-season.

While Figgins does have more AB in the post season, he has only had 1 out of 5 post seasons ( playing f/t in post season ) he actually performed. Polanco has performed in all 3 he has been in.

Matter of fact, as far as players performing in the clutch, their AB are almost identical over the past 3 seasons ( a good judge of performance ):

Polanco
Bases Loaded: .400 in 50 AB
Runners On: .332 in 259 AB
Scor. Pos.: .317 in 220 AB
Scor. Pos w/ 2 out: .269 in 79 AB

Figgins
Bases Loaded: .208 in 24 AB
Runners On: .320 in 261 AB
Scor. Pos.: .316 in 239 AB
Scor. Pos w/ 2 out: .291 in 72 AB

As for their hitting rating stats the last 3 yrs:

Player .AVG .OBP .SLG .OPS
Polanco .310 .356 .424 .780
Figgins .301 .386 .382 .768
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Old 02-16-2010, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,296 posts, read 6,852,372 times
Reputation: 6517
Quote:
Originally Posted by skylar0201 View Post
Ok, that chart you sent to me, why is it inconsistent? I know you don't like to compare fielding %, but according to that chart, the Phils had even a higher % than the M's ( Phils .989 vs. M's .969 which is even a larger difference than what I first quoted you ). Why is it that chart is incorrect on that stat?


Fangraphs lists the Phillies at .987 and the Mariners at .983


Quote:
Also, the two comparisons you gave, between player A and player B. The 5 errors that player B would make would be worse,


Letting 5 runners on base IS NOT worse than letting 25 runners on base.

Quote:
because player B runs the risk of each error he does make, how many of those have the potential to turn into runs allowed?
Each of the 5 guys that get on base have the potential to turn into a run allowed. Just like the 25 guys the other guy lets get on base.

Quote:
Quite often than not, when a team makes an error, ( or a pitcher allows a walk or two ), a run will result. That would be a costly mistake for the player that made the error ( much less 5 of them over the same course of time as another player at his position making none. )
Quite often when a fielder fails to make a play on a ball a run will result. So I'll take the guy who turns the most batted balls into outs. Regardless of how many errors he makes.

Quote:
What a player does in the post season isn't meaningless. If anything, it shows how they can perform in the clutch, not a meaningless stat for a team trying to reach the post-season.
I don't really believe in 'clutch' but according to fangraphs
Figgins clutch: 2007:1.27, 2008:.59, 2009:.95 career:3.13
Polanco clutch: 2007:1.14, 2008:-.85, 2009:1.2 career 1.65

Quote:
Matter of fact, as far as players performing in the clutch, their AB are almost identical over the past 3 seasons ( a good judge of performance ):
No it isn't. a few hundred at bats is not a good judge of performance. Take any great hitter and you'll be able to find a string of at bats where he looks like a guy who should be released. Take any scrub and he can look like an allstar.

I'm not sure what Figgins and Polanco's hitting has to do with Cliff Lee anyway
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