Originally Posted by Lancet71
So my numbers for Matsui were correct but his teams offense went to sleep. Can't fault me if a solid team goes to sleep for a season.
Credit where credit is due.
I also said that Matsui would be worth about 2 wins. He was worth 2 wins.
Matusi was paid $6 million. So for $6 million the A's got 2 WAR out of Matsui.
Two articles for your perusal both regarding the value of draft picks.
Graph of the Day: Draft Pick Value Chart, Take One - Beyond the Box Score
Are First Round Draft Picks Overpaid? | FanGraphs Baseball
The first article has this graph
The graph shows the total WAR produced by first-round draft picks from 1990-1999. #1 draft picks totaled between 85 and 90 WAR (or 8.5-9 WAR per player) while players at the end of the draft totaled 10 WAR or 1 WAR per player.
You'll notice the graph has two humps-where the WAR for the pick increases. One at around pick 11 and the other around pick 20. One possible explanation for those humps is that teams drafting higher refuse to pick players because of "signability" issues-they think the players will demand to much money to sign. These players then fall in the draft to teams that can better afford them.
Here is a link to a table showing 2009's draft along with the bonuses paid to sign each player.
2009 MLB Draft 1st Round Signings and Bonuses | MLB Draft Signings and Bonuses
The bonus for signing Stephen Strasburgh (you may remember him) was $7.5 million. Two other players (the #2 and #3 picks) also received bonuses of $6 million.
The next highest bonuses paid out were for the #9 pick and the #11 pick. You can also see that the Cardinals at pick #18 and the Yankees with the #29 pick went well above what would be expected. Evidence for teams skipping over players with high demands?
Notice that the total WAR for the 5th - 7th picks is about 40 WAR (4 WAR per player). Notice that the total WAR for the 10th - 13th picks is about 60 WAR (6 WAR per player) a difference of 2 WAR per player.
Now notice the difference in bonuses for the above slot players drafted around that time-between $2 and $3 million.
Now, for people that propose forcing teams to spend to a salary 'floor' I ask, at what price?
If a team has a choice to spend $6 million on Matsui for one year and get 2 WAR or a choice to spend that money in the draft where an extra $2 or $3 million could get you those same 2 WAR (the difference between the 10-13 picks and the 5-7 picks), which choice is going to lead to more wins and longer term success?