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Old 02-23-2010, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Cook County
5,285 posts, read 3,753,364 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speedaddicted View Post
ULWBIP - unlucky with balls in play, where can I get that stat from?
Thats what BABIP is measuring
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Old 02-23-2010, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,026,523 times
Reputation: 6501
Quote:
Originally Posted by Speedaddicted View Post
Oh I get it, so when his numbers benefit your arguement they are real, but when they dont they are superficial.... yeah that makes perfect sense.

ULWBIP - unlucky with balls in play, where can I get that stat from?
All numbers are real (except i). You just have to know what the number means. Pitchers don't control things like wins and BABIP. A lot of people smarter than me and smarter than you have shown that you are have studied this. Pitchers do control things like K rate, BB rate and HR rate.

The things that Cole Hamels had control of last year were exactly the same as they were in 2009. The things that are influenced by things out of his control all went in his favor in 2008 and against him in 2009.
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Old 02-23-2010, 02:59 PM
 
Location: Washington state
7,186 posts, read 5,296,837 times
Reputation: 1846
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Sometimes things that are obvious, are not so obvious if you choose to look at them.

First I am a Dodger fan, so if I was biased wouldn't my bias be towards them and not the Yankees, whom I despise?

I simply crunched the numbers from three very well known projection systems (CHONE, Marcel, and Bill James).

You're a Dodger fan..you hate the Giants by definition..

It doesn't surprise me in the least.. that you would shortchange the Giants staff while boosting their nearest competitors for top rotation, the Yankees, in your so called projections..
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Old 02-23-2010, 03:05 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,026,523 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
You're a Dodger fan..you hate the Giants by definition..

It doesn't surprise me in the least.. that you would shortchange the Giants staff while boosting their nearest competitors for top rotation, the Yankees, in your so called projections..


All my data was taken from the projections listed at Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball

You are free to recreate my data if you believe I was 'shortchanging'.

I used the rotations listed in this thread for the players I would project.

I'll anxiously await your non-biased results.
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Old 02-23-2010, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,059 posts, read 7,719,061 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Yeah well, considering Giants starters had 985 IP last year (3rd in MLB) well ahead of the Yankees 935 IP (19th ).. I don't take those projections very seriously. In fact, they're downright laughable..
I'm really not a fan of projections and would rather here us make our own predictions but the Yankees 4th and sometimes 5th starters were usually on pitch counts last year especially Joba the last month or two.Now with the addition of Vasquez,that puts a guy in our 4th spot who has consistently thrown around 200 innings and if Joba remains our 5th, he wont have a pitch count this year.I do believe that the Giants inning projection is low though.
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Old 02-23-2010, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Washington state
7,186 posts, read 5,296,837 times
Reputation: 1846
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post


All my data was taken from the projections listed at Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball

You are free to recreate my data if you believe I was 'shortchanging'.

I used the rotations listed in this thread for the players I would project.

I'll anxiously await your non-biased results.

Lets take a look..

IP by starters:

2006..Giants-982.2 Yankees-933.2

2007..Giants-968.2 Yankees-921.0

2008..Giants-954.2 Yankees-898.1

2009..Giants-985.0 Yankees-935.0

Your 2010 projection:

Giants-817.0 Yankees-948.0

Now you see why I have a problem with your projections?
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Old 02-23-2010, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,026,523 times
Reputation: 6501
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post


All my data was taken from the projections listed at Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball

You are free to recreate my data if you believe I was 'shortchanging'.

I used the rotations listed in this thread for the players I would project.

I'll anxiously await your non-biased results.
.
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Old 02-23-2010, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,059 posts, read 7,719,061 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speedaddicted View Post
I dont know but Having 2 and possibly 3 #1 starters in the first 3 spots on your roation far outweighs this Yankee roatation.

Sabathia is a beast, and Andy post roids is decent, Burnett is goning to be up and down as he was last year and every year before.
Vasquez is an innings eater, thats proven! The dude can throw, but pitching in the NL vs those line ups vs pitching in the AL east is a world of difference. Did anyone besides me see how CLiff lee utterly dominated the NL in the post season? I dont care what anyone says about Hughes, until he proves it on the field he is more hype than anything else. Joba is a solid #4. I think his best work comes out of the pen.


I dont know but Having 2 and possibly 3 #1 starters in the first 3 spots on your roation far outweighs this Yankee roatation. Look at Beckett, Lester and Lackey. Then you throw in Matsuzaka and Buckholz and or Wakefield. Top to bottom every guy in that roation can win 18 games (questionable for Bucholz).

Vasquez is an innings eater, thats proven the dude can throw, but pitching in the NL vs those line ups vs pitching in the AL east is a world of difference. Did anyone besides me see how CLiff lee utterly dominated the NL in the post season? I dont care what anyone says about Hughes, until he proves it on the field he is more hype than anything else. Joba is a solid #4. I think his best work comes out of the pen.
Beckett I agree is solid,and I like Lester too but Lackey looked tired last year and when some pitchers catch the injury bug,they have a hard time shaking it.Don't be surprised if he goes down.Matsuzaka has proven the tired arm theory and I expect to see the same,Wakefield had a solid year previously when he went to the all star game and I was happy for him but he and Dice- K WILL NOT win 18 games or near it. As for Bucholtz, he will probably be gone soon especially if they go after Gonzalez from the Padres. So I will completely disagree about the top 3 far outweighing the Yankees but if they stay healthy and barring any trades I did favor them as the best top to bottom even over my Yankees.

**Also when you were referring to Hughes,before last year he had a no hitter going when he went out with injury. This guy is a star.He proved it out of the pen last year and in a year or two when he's starting full time, he will make alot more people believers.Truthfully I hope they make Gaudin the 5th and leave Hughes and Joba in the pen.

**I would also keep an eye on Burnett this year. He wont be as uncomfortable as he was sometimes last year so i'm expecting big things.
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Old 02-23-2010, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,059 posts, read 7,719,061 times
Reputation: 2291
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Lets take a look..

IP by starters:

2006..Giants-982.2 Yankees-933.2

2007..Giants-968.2 Yankees-921.0

2008..Giants-954.2 Yankees-898.1

2009..Giants-985.0 Yankees-935.0

Your 2010 projection:

Giants-817.0 Yankees-948.0

Now you see why I have a problem with your projections?
Like I said before,I think the Giants numbers might be low but the Yankees numbers shouldn't be.If you judge by the Yanks previous years you have to take into consideration the innings lost by injured starters. Wang won 19 games back to back then he was hit with injuries.Hughes came out strong a couple of years back as did Kennedy and they both went down. Joba was also on pitch counts as a starter. This year we have 4 guys known for innings and if Joba pitches he wont be on a count. If injuries come into play we have better backups then previous years.
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Old 02-23-2010, 04:02 PM
 
2,222 posts, read 2,028,372 times
Reputation: 757
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Beckett I agree is solid,and I like Lester too but Lackey looked tired last year and when some pitchers catch the injury bug,they have a hard time shaking it.Don't be surprised if he goes down.Matsuzaka has proven the tired arm theory and I expect to see the same,Wakefield had a solid year previously when he went to the all star game and I was happy for him but he and Dice- K WILL NOT win 18 games or near it. As for Bucholtz, he will probably be gone soon especially if they go after Gonzalez from the Padres. So I will completely disagree about the top 3 far outweighing the Yankees but if they stay healthy and barring any trades I did favor them as the best top to bottom even over my Yankees.

**Also when you were referring to Hughes,before last year he had a no hitter going when he went out with injury. This guy is a star.He proved it out of the pen last year and in a year or two when he's starting full time, he will make alot more people believers.Truthfully I hope they make Gaudin the 5th and leave Hughes and Joba in the pen.

**I would also keep an eye on Burnett this year. He wont be as uncomfortable as he was sometimes last year so i'm expecting big things.
Werent you also picking Cheng Ming Wang to win the AL Cy young last year too?

1. Bucholz wont be traded because AGON is not going anywhere. SD has zero reason to trade the guy with 2 years left on his deal.
2.As far as Matsuzaka goes, he has won 33 games in the 2 years before last year when he was hurt.
3. Anibel and Jonathan Sanchez, Octavio Dotel, Pete Munro, Kirk Saarloos, Kevin Millwood, Bud Smith and Hideo Nomo have all pitched no hitters too... that doesnt exactly make a guy a shoe in. FYI the Houston Astros have the most no hitters in the 2000's at 6...and every one of them was vs the Yankee's. Hardly makes the Astros great wouldnt you agree?
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