RBI (Ridiculously Bad Indicator) (pitcher, games, home-run, quarterback)

[filihok]

www.PAAPFLY.com: RBI (Ridiculously Bad Indicator)

But let’s go down the path of looking at two players who accumulated 101 RBI over a full season of AB’s





As you can see, Ruben Sierra accumulated 101 RBI’s in 692 plate appearances (PA’s) and Barry Bonds ended the season with 101 in 617 PA’s. But what else did they do? Bonds more than doubled his HR’s (45 to 22), Bonds struck out fewer times than he went deep (45 HR to 41 K’s), Bonds hit .362 to Sierra’s average of .233. When it gets really interesting is when you see the OBP/SLG/OPS and wOBA. Bonds more than doubled his OBP (.609 to .288); Bonds more than doubled his SLG (.812 to .390) and thus obviously more than doubled his OPS (.678 to 1.422). Sierra’s wOBA was well below average at .296 when Bonds’ was unfathomably high at .538, this when an excellent hitter will have a wOBA around .400. Bonds drew 232 walks that season. You read that right, 232. The 2009 entire Giants roster collectively walked 392 times and Bengie Molina has walked exactly 184 times in his 12 major league seasons. This is a drastic example, yes. But history is riddled with such (albeit less extreme) examples.

So ya, when someone tells me how important knocking in runners and hitting in the clutch is, I can only really scratch my head. There’s so much data out there for us to look through. Why would anyone in their right mind ever limit themselves to RBI? It’s about the last statistic I’d ever care to look at, if at all. The logical and easy answer (I guess) is because it’s been drilled into the fans heads, and fans are clingy. All this seems simple and straightforward to me, you know, considering I myself in the not too distant past would’ve happily and confidently expressed my reverence of a player like Ryan Howard for his ability to drive in runs, or Bengie Molina for that matter. But that veil of ignorance has been lifted.

The author links to a couple of other interesting articles, I'll link to them as well

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/11/20/batting-average-home-runs-rbis/ (broken link)

So it’s pretty simple. Walks are a critical part of the game. The best on-base guys reach base about 270-300 times per season and more than a third of those are on walks. Batting average does not consider walks. So there you go: It’s pretty clear to see that batting average is a very flawed statistic — it’s a bit like calculating a quarterback passer rating for every pass he makes EXCEPT when he throws to the running backs or the tight end.*

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...ss-statistics/

RBIs are useless. I couldn’t tell you how many RBIs really anyone had last year. It’s not a stat I’ve looked at since I stopped playing fantasy baseball eight years ago. And batting average is not useless, but it’s totally incomplete, and if you compare batting average to the two other back-of-the-baseball-card stats — on-base percentage and slugging — on-base percentage includes everything batting average includes, but it also considers the value of a walk, the value of getting hit by a pitch, the lost value of an out made on a sac fly. And slugging stops treating all hits as equal. In batting average, a single and a home run are treated as if they’re exactly equal. Well, they’re not.

[Fred314X]

It's fascinating when you look at the numbers, but I wonder how many hundreds (if not thousands) of individual season stats the author had to slog through before he found this one, fairly extreme, example.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by Fred314X

It's fascinating when you look at the numbers, but I wonder how many hundreds (if not thousands) of individual season stats the author had to slog through before he found this one, fairly extreme, example.

I just slogged though every player that ever played baseball (thanks to baseball-reference's play index) and found this list of players with 100+ RBI and OPS+ < 100 (meaning that the players On Base Percent + Slugging Percent was below the league average).

The List

The Parital List
PLAYER OPS+ RBI
Tony Armas 85 107
Marv Owen 85 105
Ruben Sierra 86 101
Jeff Francoer 87 103
Paul O'Niel 92 100
Travis Fryman 92 100
Ernie Banks 92 106
Andruw Jones 94 104
Willie McGee 94 105
Moose Solters 94 134
Joe Carter 95 107

So, there are a lot of bad hitters who drive in a lot of runs. Ruben Sierra wasn't the worst.

The point is that RBI doesn't measure how well a player hit so much because it depends on the players in front of him. Pujols couldn't drive in 100 runs in a season if the city-data baseball forum posters were making up the rest of his lineup. And feared slugger Willie McGee could drive in 100 runs when he drove in about 100 runs combined in the season just before and just after.
*****
I read this somewhere (can't find it now) and it really stuck with me. Consider the following:
The leadoff batter singles. The number two hitter singles and the leadoff batter goes to 3rd base. The number 3 hitter hits into a double play, and the leadoff batter scores.

The leadoff hitter contributed to the run by singling. The number two hitter contributed to the run by singling. The number three hitter gets credit for an RBI by hitting into a double play.

[gman5431]

The purpose of baseball is to score runs. RBIs measures an players ability to drive in runs. Its a useful stat. But as demonstrated above, it can be misleading. This is no different than Runs, Batting Average, OBP, any stat doesnt tell the whole tale. They are after all, just stats. But you cant tell me that RBIs dont mean anything. Ryan Howard isnt important? Hank Aaron is over rated? RBI is stat like any other and leading the league in RBIs is an achievement.

G Rizzle

[Orangeish]

Originally Posted by gman5431

The purpose of baseball is to score runs. RBIs measures an players ability to drive in runs. Its a useful stat. But as demonstrated above, it can be misleading. This is no different than Runs, Batting Average, OBP, any stat doesnt tell the whole tale. They are after all, just stats. But you cant tell me that RBIs dont mean anything. Ryan Howard isnt important? Hank Aaron is over rated? RBI is stat like any other and leading the league in RBIs is an achievement.

G Rizzle

It is completely dependent on other players getting on base though. There are other, more efficent/effective ways to measure a players ability to drive in run then just the most dumbed down way---simply counting, which is all "RBIs" do. Stating RBIs are not important does not somehow say that I think Hank Aaron was over rated, thats a false correlation.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by gman5431

The purpose of baseball is to score runs. RBIs measures an players ability to drive in runs.

This...this is what drives me crazy. RBI is a statistic. It counts what happened. It does not measure ability.

Willie McGee

What happened to Willie McGee's 'ability' in 1987? Why was he able to drive in more than twice as many runs as he was in 1986 and 1988?

RBI doesn't measure a player's ability as much as it measures a player's place in his batting lineup and the abilities of the other player's in his batting lineup and luck.

Its a useful stat. But as demonstrated above, it can be misleading.

Extremely misleading

This is no different than Runs, Batting Average, OBP, any stat doesnt tell the whole tale. They are after all, just stats.

You are absolutely correct here. No one stat tells you the whole tale. Each stat is a part of the whole tale. It's important to know what part of the tale that stat is telling you though. RBI tells you very little about the skill of a player and tells you more about the skill of the players around him.

But you cant tell me that RBIs dont mean anything. Ryan Howard isnt important? Hank Aaron is over rated? RBI is stat like any other and leading the league in RBIs is an achievement.

Ryan Howard is the poster boy for this discussion. Thank you
Here are the guys with the most RBI over the last 3 seasons.
RBI leaders from 2007-2009
Howard - 423
Fielder - 362
A-Rod - 359
Pujols - 354
Cabrera - 349
Tex - 348

During that time these player have had the following numbers of baserunners on base while batting and have driven in the following % of those runners
Howard - 1484 19%
Fielder - 1347 18%
A-Rod - 1401 18%
Pujols - 1351 18%
Cabrera - 1321 21%
Tex - 1407 18%

The reason that Howard has so many RBI is because he has so many guys on base. There is nothing magic about his ability to drive in runners.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by filihok

What happened to Willie McGee's 'ability' in 1987? Why was he able to drive in more than twice as many runs as he was in 1986 and 1988?

To answer my own question (because I was curious, even though I had a hunch at the answer)

Willie McGee Batting Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

in 1986 McGee drove in 16% of the runners on base when he batted
in 1988 McGee drove in 14% of the runners on base when he batted
in 1987 McGee drove in 17% of the runners on base when he batted

So, a slight improvement in the percent of runners he was able to drive in.

BUT

in 1986 McGee had 291 runners on base. If he had driven in 17% (instead of 16%) he would have increased his RBI by about 3 RBI giving him 51 RBI
in 1988 McGee had 369 runners on base. If he had driven in 17% (instead of 14%) he would have increased his RBI by about 11 RBI giving him 61 RBI
in 1987 McGee had 544 runners on base.

That's why he had 100 RBI in 1987

[aardvarks]

actually there is no RBI awarded if the batter hits into a double play. But I agree with the point you were making, if the player hits into a fielders choice and the run scores then he gets an RBI.

[Orangeish]

Originally Posted by aardvarks

actually there is no RBI awarded if the batter hits into a double play. But I agree with the point you were making, if the player hits into a fielders choice and the run scores then he gets an RBI.

Yeah, thats one of those rulings that slipped by me for a while. Then in 04 Paul Konerko grounded into to SO MANY DPs that I started to realize the trend.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by aardvarks

actually there is no RBI awarded if the batter hits into a double play.

But I agree with the point you were making, if the player hits into a fielders choice and the run scores then he gets an RBI.

I'm glad at least one person did