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Old 11-23-2010, 01:01 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,839,296 times
Reputation: 6517

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Fangraphs, right on time

Comparing FIPS and xFIPS Using Batted Ball Distance | FanGraphs Baseball
by Jeff Zimmerman - November 22, 2010


Quote:
There seems to be some decent correlation between how far a pitcher allows a fly ball to fly and his xFIP-FIP difference. In other words, pitchers that allow the ball not to be hit as far, don’t allow as many home runs (duh), therefore their FIP value is much lower than their xFIP

The two main points I need to explore further are:

1. I need to get the park factors nailed down for the batted ball distance. I need to adjust every fly ball’s distance.
2. Once that is down, I need to see if there is any correlation from one season to the next for a pitcher’s fly ball distance.
Point #2 is the important one.

Can pitchers repeatedly induce weak flyballs?
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Old 11-17-2011, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,839,296 times
Reputation: 6517
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Well then, we'll stick with the AL......If Hallady is the best...why did he only win one AL Cy Young in over 10 years? I'll sit back and wait for some excuses..

Again..let Hallady (career ERA 3.43) go out and prove he's better than Lincecum (career ERA 2.90)...

Speculation means nothing..
Halladay ERA since entering the NL:
484 innings, 40-16, 2.40 ERA, 6.75 K/BB, 14.7 WAR, 1 Cy Young, 36 first place votes, 21 2nd place votes, 431 points

Lincecum since Halladay entered the NL:
429 innings, 29-24, 3.08 ERA, 2.78 K/BB, 9.3 WAR, 0 Cy Youngs, 0 first place votes, 0 2nd place votes, 9 points

Proven?
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Old 11-19-2011, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,185 posts, read 5,630,682 times
Reputation: 1849
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Halladay ERA since entering the NL:
484 innings, 40-16, 2.40 ERA, 6.75 K/BB, 14.7 WAR, 1 Cy Young, 36 first place votes, 21 2nd place votes, 431 points

Lincecum since Halladay entered the NL:
429 innings, 29-24, 3.08 ERA, 2.78 K/BB, 9.3 WAR, 0 Cy Youngs, 0 first place votes, 0 2nd place votes, 9 points

Proven?
Weird filihok, just now answering a post I made before the 2010 season. Waiting until the stats were more to your advantage? Or just wanting to use only stats accrued in the NL as a metric?

Perhaps I should follow your example and prolong my response until say..after the 2013 season, maybe the stats will have turned more Lincecum's way by that time.

Halladay's a great pitcher....btw, how many WS victories does he have? How many WS have the Phillies won since Halladay joined them?
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Old 11-19-2011, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
11,215 posts, read 7,283,682 times
Reputation: 8445
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Halladay's a great pitcher....btw, how many WS victories does he have? How many WS have the Phillies won since Halladay joined them?
Ernie Banks' teams never played a single post season game, he must have been a really lousy player.
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Old 11-19-2011, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,185 posts, read 5,630,682 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
Ernie Banks' teams never played a single post season game, he must have been a really lousy player.
Ernie Banks? LOL Next you'll be bringing up Billy Williams and Ron Santo.

Whoever said Halladay was a lousy pitcher? He's been great during the regular season..and when facing the Reds come playoff time..

I would argue though that when Lincecum faced Halladay in game 1 of the 2010 NLCS, he set the tone for that series by beating him..
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Old 11-19-2011, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,126 posts, read 8,435,033 times
Reputation: 2323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Weird filihok, just now answering a post I made before the 2010 season. Waiting until the stats were more to your advantage? Or just wanting to use only stats accrued in the NL as a metric?

Perhaps I should follow your example and prolong my response until say..after the 2013 season, maybe the stats will have turned more Lincecum's way by that time.

Halladay's a great pitcher....btw, how many WS victories does he have? How many WS have the Phillies won since Halladay joined them?
No offense Upton but he picked final season stats. It's not like he waited for a good performance vs a bad one. Also judging by world series wins is ridiculous. If one guy played all position then it would make sense but obviously they don't. You can't win games if your team doesn't score runs and usually MOST pitchers at bats don't decide the outcome of games. They can only contribute by throwing a good game. If you want to come back next year and do the comparison again feel free. Just don't cherry pick a week where Lincecum had a better outing than Halladay. It's a bit obvious and lame.
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Old 11-19-2011, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 6,839,296 times
Reputation: 6517
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Weird filihok, just now answering a post I made before the 2010 season. Waiting until the stats were more to your advantage? Or just wanting to use only stats accrued in the NL as a metric?
Well, prior to the 2010 season many people pointed out that Halladay faced a different class of players than Lincecum did (both in terms of the hitters he faced and the pitchers he was competing with for the Cy Young) . To which you responded, "speculation means nothing". Now, after Halladay has pitched two seasons in the NL and we don't have to speculate how he might perform then you claim I was waiting until the stats were in Halladay's favor.

In your mind you must win a lot of arguments.

Last edited by filihok; 11-19-2011 at 10:18 AM..
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,185 posts, read 5,630,682 times
Reputation: 1849
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
No offense Upton but he picked final season stats. It's not like he waited for a good performance vs a bad one. Also judging by world series wins is ridiculous. If one guy played all position then it would make sense but obviously they don't. You can't win games if your team doesn't score runs and usually MOST pitchers at bats don't decide the outcome of games. They can only contribute by throwing a good game. If you want to come back next year and do the comparison again feel free. Just don't cherry pick a week where Lincecum had a better outing than Halladay. It's a bit obvious and lame.
Well, I can see why you have a special affinity for the Phillies. After all, they've gone your favorite team's route in attempting to buy themselves a World Series title..
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
11,215 posts, read 7,283,682 times
Reputation: 8445
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Ernie Banks? LOL Next you'll be bringing up Billy Williams and Ron Santo.

Whoever said Halladay was a lousy pitcher? He's been great during the regular season..and when facing the Reds come playoff time..

I would argue though that when Lincecum faced Halladay in game 1 of the 2010 NLCS, he set the tone for that series by beating him..
Did you not grasp the point being made? The proper way to evaluate a player isn't based on the performance of his teammates. Nor is the proper way to evaluate players a focus on some isolated samples of their performance while neglecting the rest of their careers.
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Old 11-20-2011, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,126 posts, read 8,435,033 times
Reputation: 2323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
Well, I can see why you have a special affinity for the Phillies. After all, they've gone your favorite team's route in attempting to buy themselves a World Series title..
Boy you are lost. I liked Halladay when he was with Toronto. So the fact that you are losing this argument, you stray and poke some jabs at the Phillies and Yankees. HOW LAME !!!
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