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Old 08-19-2012, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 5,942,250 times
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Pirates win 6-3 in the 18th.

Obviously this is due to gross managerial errors on the part of Mike Matheny. It seems to be impossible for the Cardinals to lose because the other team is better, or played better or because it's baseball.
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Old 08-19-2012, 08:18 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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At least the Cards avoided another one run loss.
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Old 08-19-2012, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,729 posts, read 34,069,989 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Looking forward to jtur's comments and critiques on today's 17 (so far) inning Pirates and Cardinals game.
Sorry I made you wait so long. Nothing outstanding in that game that seemed glaring mismanagement. He even overcame the urge to bunt with a runner on first and only 3 outs left, down by a run. I was actually impressed, that maybe there is a learning curve there. I don't know why he never steals against a catcher that only throws out one runner a month (15%).

I think it's time to rethink the spot leflty, though.

Today, the Pittsburghs were held at bay, until Matheny finally got down to his Lelfty pitchers from the Black Lagoon. The first one gave up two hard shots up the middle, one for a deflected infield hit that scored a run and the other caught by an infielder. Both of them, if not right at somebody, would have driven in four runs. The first one, if not deflected, would have gone up the middle for 2 runs. OK, they scored a run and dodged that bullet, but there is no way they could come back after their other Lefty melted down.

If your lefties are only brought in to face lefties, and they are still ineffective, who needs them? Send them packing, go with the best righties you've got. After a couple of decent months, Boggs and Motte are starting to look more like their old selves. There are ten pitchers who have pitched at both St. Louis and Memphis this year, which is telling me that basically, his bullpen is Triple-A. I wonder who he's got in Springfield.

Matheny is getting such consistent quality starts from his starters, regularly going 6 and even 7 innings, he could probably do with a staff of 11 or maybe even 10 pitchers. Especially now that he has a reliever who can go 6 or 7 innings once a week. Bring in Kelly in the 4th or 5th if necessary, and leave him in there to close his own game.

Last edited by jtur88; 08-19-2012 at 09:33 PM..
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Old 08-20-2012, 06:01 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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If the Cards and Pirates stay in the race to the end, it will be only the third time since 1927 that those two teams paid any attention to each other in September. In '27, the Waners led the Bucs to the World series, and the defending champion Cardinals were not eliminated until the second-last day of the season. Since then, only in '71 and '74 did both teams finish within 8 games of a post-season slot.
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Old 08-21-2012, 01:44 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
is it better to have those seasoned veterans, or replacement callups?
Did you catch this play last night from the Nationals and Braves game?

Tie game in the bottom of the 13th. The Braves are trying to catch the Nationals in the NL East. Danny Espinosa, who has 1281 career plate appearances (about 2 full seasons worth), alertly takes 3rd base when Chipper Jones, who has 10489 career plate appearances, comes in to field a chopper by Kurt Suzuki and leaves 3rd base unattended. C Brian McCann, who has 3856 career plate appearances, also fails to cover the bag.

Espinosa scores on the next at bat when Chad Tracy, 2814 plate appearances, grounds out to Dan Uggla, 4540 career plate appearances, who does this with the ball.

Nationals win.

The Braves clearly botched their way into a loss in this game.

Average age of the players on the Atlanta Braves = 27.9 years
Average age of the players on the Washington Nationals = 27.1 years
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Old 08-21-2012, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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They do that every time, right? Or was this just a single, anecdotal, one-time incident?

You let the pitcher bat for himself and he gets a hit, which proves that there is no value in using a pinch hitter for the pitcher. I just saw it with my own eyes, so I know it is true, and I will remember it and bring it up for the rest of my life, as evidence that you should let the pitcher bat for himself..

Or, it is better to have a base runner with 2382 career PAs om second base, so he can take third when it is left unattended by a fielder with 10489 career PAs. We have proof, we saw it before our very eyes.
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Old 08-21-2012, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,302 posts, read 5,942,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
They do that every time, right? Or was this just a single, anecdotal, one-time incident?
You're right. We shouldn't rely only on observations. We should use data. You got me. I'm converted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Today, the Pittsburghs were held at bay, until Matheny finally got down to his Lelfty pitchers from the Black Lagoon. The first one gave up two hard shots up the middle, one for a deflected infield hit that scored a run and the other caught by an infielder. Both of them, if not right at somebody, would have driven in four runs. The first one, if not deflected, would have gone up the middle for 2 runs.

If your lefties are only brought in to face lefties, and they are still ineffective, who needs them? Send them packing, go with the best righties you've got.
This reads a lot like a "single, anecdotal, one-time incident". Let's see what the data says.

Motte vs L: 24% K, 10% BB, 3.62 FIP, 3.92 xFIP
Motte vs R: 27% K, 6% BB, 3.20 FIP, 3.22 xFIP

Boggs vs L: 13% K, 13% BB, 5.08 FIP, 5.12 xFIP
Boggs vs R: 20% K, 8% BB, 3.44 FIP, 3.72 xFIP

Salas vs L: 24% K, 9% BB, 3.61 FIP, 3.71 xFIP
Salas vs R: 25% K, 9% BB, 3.33 FIP, 3.96 xFIP

Of the Cards 3 top right-handed relievers 2 have significant L/R spilts. How about the lefties?

Rzepczynski vs L: 27% K, 9% BB, 2.96 FIP, 2.86 xFIP
Browning vs L: 17% K, 10% BB, 5.50 FIP, 4.23 xFIP (41 batters faced).

Rzep has certainly had more success vs left-handed hitters than any of the top 3 right-handed relievers in the Cards' bullpen. Browning hasn't, but he's only faced 41 hitters - that's a pretty small sample to try and draw conclusions from. Rzep should certainly be facing left-handed batters in high-leverage situations as opposed to Boggs. It's closer with Salas and Motte, but Rzep's performance thus far, has been better. Remember as well, a lot of Rzep's PA's against came as a starter. Pitchers who start are generally less effective than pitchers who relieve. This likely understates Rzep's performance as compared to the Cardinals' other relievers.
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Old 09-01-2012, 01:30 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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Furcal is apparently gone for the season. I don't see that as a great loss. His defense has been very spotty for the past month or so, his BA is down 16 points since the first of July, he's been demoted from the leadoff spot, and Descalso is very close to the defensive equivalent of Furcal, and might even be better, although we haven't seen much of him at short.

Filihok, the crucial stat on Rzep is his walks. 9% against lefties. Boggs and Motte can pitch around lefties, but Rzep is brought in for no other reason than to get just one of them out, and he doesn't do that often enough to take up a roster spot.

I'd like to see Erik Bedard at least get a phone call from the Cardinals. He' a well seasoned MLB pitcher. There was no place for him on the Pirates staff, with the best bullpen in the league, but that doesn't mean there is no room for him on a "contender" (haha) with the worst bullpen in the league. Might be an improvement over all those guys in Memphis. He might only need a few days with a different pitching coach.
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Old 09-01-2012, 04:23 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
38,729 posts, read 34,069,989 times
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And Bingo. Two hours later. Rzepczynski comes in to get a Lefty with two outs, and walks him, and leaves the game. Again. And now a three run inning.

Why is Craig playing right field instead of Carpenter, with 1B Craig's everyday position.
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Old 09-04-2012, 05:31 PM
 
Location: A Land Not So Far Away
3,409 posts, read 1,274,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
I'd like to see Erik Bedard at least get a phone call from the Cardinals. He' a well seasoned MLB pitcher. There was no place for him on the Pirates staff, with the best bullpen in the league, but that doesn't mean there is no room for him on a "contender" (haha) with the worst bullpen in the league. Might be an improvement over all those guys in Memphis. He might only need a few days with a different pitching coach.
I don't see why not, especially with the great stuff he has.
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