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Old 05-02-2012, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 86,941,000 times
Reputation: 36644

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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
I never said that it was a strength.

You'll have to conceed that you didn't fully think this through.

Turning from an above average starting rotation to an average bullpen could very well be a positive turning point in the game. Two points to consider.

First, the starters are probably above average for 6 or 7 innings. That doesn't mean they are above average for the 8th and 9th inning.

Second, and the point I'd most like to discuss, is that the average reliever is much more effective on a per inning basis than the average starter.

In 2011, the average reliver had a 3.69 ERA, .696 OPS against and 7.9 K's per 9 innings
The average starter had a 4.06 ERA, .731 OPS against and 6.3 K's per 9 innings.

I don't know how old you are, but the days of 9 inning starting pitchers are over.

As a fan with no real love for St. Louis, I have no problem with them employing this outdated strategy however.
I don't remember saying anything about leaving their starters in for 9 innings. I only said that their bullpen is mediocre, which you confirmed with statistical glee, and now wish to take me to task on.

Your stats are tainted by certain considerations that you have not taken into account. One is that the "average" starter includes those marginal ones on shallow pitching staffs, who by necessity get just as much work as the good ones. While a manager can give a larger share of work to his more effective relievers, so their statistical average is not diluted so much by the worst among them. If you fully understood the statistics you are so fond of quoting, this would have leapt to your mind already. Also, relievers are more often selected to pitch to batters with favorable handedness or hitting propensity, improving the chances that a reliever will be an advantageous matchup. And the fact that the closer is often the single best pitcher a team has, thus improving the overall satistics of the relievers collectively.
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Old 05-02-2012, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Knoxville
611 posts, read 1,458,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
As a fan with no real love for St. Louis...
I'm shocked! You're usually so even-handed in your evaluations of the Cardinals...

Anyhow, the defending World Series champions are currently beating the tar out of Pittsburgh (sorry A.J., you were due for some runs after that last game against us), and their run differential is more than three times higher than any other team in the National League. That's ridiculous.
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Old 05-03-2012, 05:42 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,299,154 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
I don't remember saying anything about leaving their starters in for 9 innings. I only said that their bullpen is mediocre, which you confirmed with statistical glee, and now wish to take me to task on.
I may have taken some liberties since you seem to complain each time that a Cardinal starter is removed in favor of a reliever.

Quote:
Your stats are tainted by certain considerations that you have not taken into account. One is that the "average" starter includes those marginal ones on shallow pitching staffs, who by necessity get just as much work as the good ones.
Is the same not true of relievers?

Quote:
While a manager can give a larger share of work to his more effective relievers, so their statistical average is not diluted so much by the worst among them. If you fully understood the statistics you are so fond of quoting, this would have leapt to your mind already. Also, relievers are more often selected to pitch to batters with favorable handedness or hitting propensity, improving the chances that a reliever will be an advantageous matchup.
Yes. So why do you complain when the Cardinals employ relievers? Perhaps the Cardinals are using their relievers inappropriately. Bringing in a left-handed reliever to face a right-handed batter and losing the platoon advantage. I don't follow the minutiae of the Cardinals managing that closely in May.

However, I'm certain that during the playoffs last season I did bring these points up

Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Carpenter hit the first batter he faced in the inning, bringing the winning run to the plate. Ethier doesn't have a lot of home runs this year, but he's the Dodger's second best hitter and second best power hitter. He's also horrid vs lefties.

Ethier vs lefties: .225 batting average, 5% walks, 27% strike outs, .264 on base percentage, .312 slugging percentage, .255 wOBA.
Ethier hits 42% WORSE than the league average batter vs lefties
Ethier vs righties: .315 batting average, 12% walks, 16 % strike outs, .402 OBP, .462 SLG, .376 wOBA.
Ethier hits 40% better than the league average vs righties.
*Ethier splits on FanGraphs

Totally defensible for LaRussa to bring in the left-handed reliever to neutralize the Dodgers' only real offensive threat likely to hit in the game.

It worked as Either struck out. At this point the Cardinals had a 87% chance of winning the game. That factors in average hitters, and average pitchers.

The hitters after Ethier, Miles and Barajas, are terrible.
Miles .298 wOBA; 13% worse than a league average hitter *fangraphs
Barajas .301 wOBA; 11% worse than a league average hitter *fangraphs

LaRussa brought in Salas who is a much better pitcher than Rhodes, who K'd Either.

Rhodes: 6.47 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, 6.15 tERA, 4.53 SIERA, 58% WORSE than league average.
Salas: 3.17 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, 2.66 tERA, 2.68 SIERA, 15% BETTER than league average.

Also, Salas is a fly ball pitcher-50% fly balls for his career. Miles is terrible when hitting fly balls. He's hitting .139 on fly balls this season with a .187 wOBA - 89% worse than league average. Miles hit a fly ball. It just happened to be right in the gap between the RFer and CFer.

That's the hit that changed the game. LaRussa got exactly what he wanted. Ethier struck out, Miles-the weakling-hit a flyball, Barajas grounded out (you're right about Furcal, for sure).

Yeah, it didn't work out, but baseball is a funny game like that. All that stuff about BABIP and 'luck'.

That's why baseball is my favorite sport. Anything can happen.
I'm quite aware of a manager's need to select the appropriate reliever.

Perhaps Matheny picked the wrong guy. Totally possible. But just because he used a reliever who blew the game doesn't automatically make it the wrong move.
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Old 05-07-2012, 10:04 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 86,941,000 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
I may have taken some liberties since you seem to complain each time that a Cardinal starter is removed in favor of a reliever.

.
Especially when the starter is pitching a 3-hit shutout through five, and is removed for a pinch hitter with a 7 run lead. The bullpen then gives up 6 runs in the sixth, and I can't help wondering why they are in there?

There must be a reason why starters have bigger contracts than cast-off itinerant middle-relievers. I wonder what that reason is.
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Old 05-09-2012, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,299,154 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Especially when the starter is pitching a 3-hit shutout through five, and is removed for a pinch hitter with a 7 run lead. The bullpen then gives up 6 runs in the sixth, and I can't help wondering why they are in there?
Because someone has to pitch. Duh.

Quote:
There must be a reason why starters have bigger contracts than cast-off itinerant middle-relievers. I wonder what that reason is.
They pitch more innings and are generally better pitchers. Duh.

Obviously the manager of the Chicago Bulls doesn't know much about basketball since this player had not 1, but 2, chances to win the game and failed both times. Why would you ever design a play for that guy?



Jordan misses 2 game tying shots - YouTube
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Old 05-09-2012, 05:34 PM
Status: "College baseball this weekend." (set 5 days ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
52,685 posts, read 47,940,162 times
Reputation: 33840
The Cards haven't missed a beat at all. It's almost as if Tony LaRussa never left. They get a chance to sweep the Diamondbacks in the desert tonight. I may listen to a little of it after the Astros/Marlins game. And, incredibly, they haven't swept anyone in a series this season.
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Old 05-09-2012, 10:49 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 86,941,000 times
Reputation: 36644
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Because someone has to pitch. Duh.

There was already somebody pitching a three hit shutout. Duh.

In the specific game I questioned, a big strong pitcher was taken out for a pinch hitter with a 6 run lead and a 91 pitch count, pitching a 3-hit shutout. Is your take on the conventional wisdom so rigid that he MUST be taken out if his turn at bat comes up after 91 pitches, no matter how big the lead nor how well he is doing nor how suspect the bullpen? Yes he absolutely must be, or no, sometimes not necessarily. That is the point of the question, and I regret to report that the Michael Jordan video was off topic, no matter how certain you were that seeing it would make me grovel apologetically to the infallibility of your intransigence.

Last edited by jtur88; 05-09-2012 at 11:12 PM..
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Old 05-10-2012, 06:12 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,299,154 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
There was already somebody pitching a three hit shutout. Duh.

In the specific game I questioned, a big strong pitcher was taken out for a pinch hitter with a 6 run lead and a 91 pitch count, pitching a 3-hit shutout. Is your take on the conventional wisdom so rigid that he MUST be taken out if his turn at bat comes up after 91 pitches, no matter how big the lead nor how well he is doing nor how suspect the bullpen? Yes he absolutely must be, or no, sometimes not necessarily.
I assume that you are ranting about this game.
Diamondbacks » Box Score » Monday, May 07, 2012 | FanGraphs Baseball

I am not a huge believer in rigid pitch counts. Each pitcher is an individual and should be treated as such. Lance Lynn may be able to throw 120 pitches in 1 game and 92 in another.

When Lance Lynn was pulled the Cardinals had a 98% chance of winning the game given average pitchers and average hitters playing the rest of the game. Maybe there were not average hitters and average pitchers playing the rest of the game, but at that point the Cardinals were very likely to win the game (which they did).

Quote:
That is the point of the question, and I regret to report that the Michael Jordan video was off topic, no matter how certain you were that seeing it would make me grovel apologetically to the infallibility of your intransigence.
The Michael Jordan video was most certainly on topic. Who in the history of basketball do you want taking two game winning shots? Michael Jordan, yet, despite the fact that he is one of the most likely players to make one of those two shots, sometimes he still missed.

The Cardinals were something like 95% likely to win that game regardless of who pitched the final four innings (assuming that someone was a major league pitcher).

I'm going to try and approximate your "logic" here.
Cardinals starters have a combined win loss record of 19 and 8 this season. Since, after the fact, it is obvious that 8 times the Cardinal starter was left in too long as he gave up the losing run and should have been relived sooner. You agree?
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Old 05-10-2012, 09:52 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 86,941,000 times
Reputation: 36644
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post


The Michael Jordan video was most certainly on topic. Who in the history of basketball do you want taking two game winning shots? Michael Jordan, yet, despite the fact that he is one of the most likely players to make one of those two shots, sometimes he still missed.

Michael Jordan missed 50.3% of all his career shots, with a 25% chance at any time in his career that he would miss his next two. And with great and time wasting and irrelevant and frivolous effort, you have uncovered an amazing video of a single example of Jordan doing something that he did 6,208 times, and displayed it as unassailable proof that you are always right.

Last edited by jtur88; 05-10-2012 at 10:03 AM..
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Old 05-11-2012, 09:11 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,299,154 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Michael Jordan missed 50.3% of all his career shots, with a 25% chance at any time in his career that he would miss his next two. And with great and time wasting and irrelevant and frivolous effort, you have uncovered an amazing video of a single example of Jordan doing something that he did 6,208 times, and displayed it as unassailable proof that you are always right.
It wasn't my intent to show that I am always right. I most certainly am not.

With great and irrelevant effort (and frivolous use of the word 'and') you have, once again, shown that my point (and logic) is completely over your head.

Now that we are both off-topic and have traded barbs perhaps we can get back on track.

Other than the results, what could Matheny have known ahead of time which would suggest that his bullpen would give up 6 runs?
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