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View Poll Results: Do You think the Miami Heat have reached their potential?
Yes the performance this regular and postseason is the ceiling. 11 29.73%
No they have alot of learning, chemistry, and (fill in the blank) do to. 26 70.27%
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-15-2011, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Chicago
931 posts, read 1,321,664 times
Reputation: 704

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parti Rhinocéros View Post
I'm curious where everyone thinks they will have the cap room to make major player movement while at the same time keeping this core of players.

The 2010-11 Salary Cap is a soft $58.04 million, which is up from last year, but down $620,000 from two years ago. One would have to be reasonably sure that the cap will stay relatively the same for next season, while some have pushed for a hard salary cap in order to keep ballooning player salaries more in check.

While I don't believe a hard salary cap will occur, let's just say that the soft cap next year increases to $58.5 million, which is relatively generous.

This Heat team is currently over the cap by nearly $8 million dollars. The down-side, however, is that they don't have any big-money players coming off the cap.

Despite the fact that both Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem signed for below market value, they still both signed contracts past the 2014/15 season.

The issue is compounded by the fact that Mario Chalmers, who only earned $800k this season, clearly earned himself a raise - at least into the low couple of millions per season - for his play this year and will need to be resigned.

Due to player salary increases, they'll basically have the exact same payroll (roughly $8 million over the cap) MINUS the services of:

Mario Chalmers
Mike Bibby
Juwon Howard
Jamaal MaGloire
James Jones
Shavlik Randolph
Jerry Stackhouse

Admittedly, not a group of players that will wow anyone, but the retention of Chalmers is mandatory unless you're filling the gap with someone of similar talent.

So, where do they get the money from? Do you trade Mike Miller? His stock was down all season between injuries and poor shooting in part of the playoffs. Do you trade Udonis Haslem? I think clearly he's the heart of the team.

So, does the $5.8 million mid-level exception cure all ills? Do players agree to sign below market value in order to join the Heat after seeing some of the turmoil and hatred geared to them? When Miller and Haslem resigned, House and Z joined up, and Bibby accepted a mere pittance, they thought they were putting a ring on their fingers. Do other players still think the same thing now?

Long story short, UNLESS the front office makes one shrewd, shrewd pickup, I think there's a good chance they are close to their ceiling. In fact, based on the fact that as the years progress, LBJ, Wade, and Bosh will all be aging while their contracts will be getting progressively larger each year, I think there's actually a window that they need to accomplish what they need to accomplish within a couple of seasons or this thing will be blown up.

For instance, by 2015, all three players will be the only 3 players on the Miami Heat roster/salary cap and the team salary comprised of 3 players will be $8 million dollars over the salary cap alone. If they can't win it by themselves this year, they're not actually going to win it by themselves when they're in their 30s.




Vegas also had Miami being favored 3x what Dallas was favored when the series was tied 2-2 in the Finals. The line was -335. Meaning, you'd have to put $335 dollars on the Heat to win $100.

When Dallas went up 3-2, Miami was still favored by double. I took Dallas at +200 and doubled my money.

Vegas odds have absolutely no bearing on reality - they simply move lines and draw in money.

I hope that's not your rationale for why the Heat will be better next season.
No, but it just shows that they are the favorites again next year because no other team can match up with the talent of the big three. Two of their big role player pieces were injured for most of the year. And LeBron is still the best player in the game. Every GM would love to have him as the centerpiece of their team.

And despite all of the patting on the back about LeBron failing to live up to the big moment (wasn't that also what people said about Dirk and the Mavs before this series), the Heat decimated the rest of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, and were one big defensive stop/clutch shot away from going up 2-0 against the Mavs and taking control of that series.

Sure, the Heat don't have a lot of money to spend but it's not that hard to get better quality young players instead of old and bad roster filler like Mike Bibby, Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, et al. Any changes to the CBA will also affect other good teams who don't exactly have a ton of cap room (my Bulls for example). If there is a hard cap, current contracts will surely be grandfathered and nobody will have the opportunity to try to build a top three that can come close to matching up with the Heat...so that could work to their advantage as well.
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Old 06-15-2011, 01:16 PM
 
Location: San José, CA
3,283 posts, read 5,798,148 times
Reputation: 3222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hendu View Post
No, but it just shows that they are the favorites again next year because no other team can match up with the talent of the big three. Two of their big role player pieces were injured for most of the year. And LeBron is still the best player in the game. Every GM would love to have him as the centerpiece of their team.

And despite all of the patting on the back about LeBron failing to live up to the big moment (wasn't that also what people said about Dirk and the Mavs before this series), the Heat decimated the rest of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, and were one big defensive stop/clutch shot away from going up 2-0 against the Mavs and taking control of that series.

Sure, the Heat don't have a lot of money to spend but it's not that hard to get better quality young players instead of old and bad roster filler like Mike Bibby, Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, et al. Any changes to the CBA will also affect other good teams who don't exactly have a ton of cap room (my Bulls for example). If there is a hard cap, current contracts will surely be grandfathered and nobody will have the opportunity to try to build a top three that can come close to matching up with the Heat...so that could work to their advantage as well.
1. I think the 'Lebron is the the best player in the league' talk has to stop. He's not even the best player on his own team and that's epically clear at this point.

2. I have a hard time believing that you're going to get much more than re-treads like Mike Bibby or Big Z to fill in when you're as hamstrung as they are. Do they win the title if they acquire a Matt Barnes like L.A. did with their mid-level? I just don't think so. At best, you might nab someone like a Chauncey Billups or a Richard Hamilton at some point? What productive centers is anyone giving away on the cheap? That's like a MLB team giving away a left-handed pitcher.

3. Something I haven't mentioned that I think is worth mentioning is that the general media take has been that they were 2 games away from winning it all. They were also on the verge of not getting out of the East if Chris Bosh and Lebron James had played like they did during the Finals. We shouldn't be presuming that this team will beat Chicago or Boston next season, in my opinion. I think they should consider themselves very lucky that the other East powers basically fell apart in the playoffs.
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Old 06-15-2011, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Chicago
931 posts, read 1,321,664 times
Reputation: 704
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parti Rhinocéros View Post
1. I think the 'Lebron is the the best player in the league' talk has to stop. He's not even the best player on his own team and that's epically clear at this point.
No other players in the league can do what he does...which is everything. Lockdown D, scoring, facilitating and rebounding. His shortcoming isn't a lack of talent, it's a mental block. Players can get over this thing...he's just entering the prime of his career. He was amazing in the Bulls series, making the MVP look like a little kid. Kyle Korver couldn't get an open look because LeBron played some of the best help defense I've ever seen in a playoff series, and then got back to cover the perimeter. That's the player that LeBron usually had been, not the guy against Boston last year and the Mavs this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Parti Rhinocéros View Post
2. I have a hard time believing that you're going to get much more than re-treads like Mike Bibby or Big Z to fill in when you're as hamstrung as they are. Do they win the title if they acquire a Matt Barnes like L.A. did with their mid-level? I just don't think so. At best, you might nab someone like a Chauncey Billups or a Richard Hamilton at some point? What productive centers is anyone giving away on the cheap? That's like a MLB team giving away a left-handed pitcher.
But they don't need a whole lot better than retreads...just younger and healthier ones who complement the team they currently have. Those players aren't going to break the bank...look at how much a player like JJ Barea was making this year. Also, if Miller and Haslem stay healthy the Heat will already be a much improved team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Parti Rhinocéros View Post
3. Something I haven't mentioned that I think is worth mentioning is that the general media take has been that they were 2 games away from winning it all. They were also on the verge of not getting out of the East if Chris Bosh and Lebron James had played like they did during the Finals. We shouldn't be presuming that this team will beat Chicago or Boston next season, in my opinion. I think they should consider themselves very lucky that the other East powers basically fell apart in the playoffs.
But Chris Bosh and LeBron have track records bigger than one series. Just because Dirk folded in 2006 didn't mean he would do it again in 2011. Just because D-Rose got manhandled in the series against the Heat doesn't mean that's what we can expect going forward. People forget that LeBron has had amazing playoff performances. Even in the 2011 playoffs, he took over some of those games at the end, until game 2 of the Finals.

I was rooting against the Heat like most everyone else...but I think a lot of people are letting their hate for LeBron get in the way of a rational discussion. Seriously, watching him fail was fun, but would anybody here be that surprised if LBJ is the MVP next year and gets a ring?

Last edited by Hendu; 06-15-2011 at 02:10 PM..
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Old 06-15-2011, 10:45 PM
 
Location: San José, CA
3,283 posts, read 5,798,148 times
Reputation: 3222
I preface this by saying that I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your overall big-picture ideas because I think you're right. I'm sort of just nit-picking some of the small stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hendu View Post
No other players in the league can do what he does...which is everything. Lockdown D, scoring, facilitating and rebounding. His shortcoming isn't a lack of talent, it's a mental block. Players can get over this thing...he's just entering the prime of his career. He was amazing in the Bulls series, making the MVP look like a little kid. Kyle Korver couldn't get an open look because LeBron played some of the best help defense I've ever seen in a playoff series, and then got back to cover the perimeter. That's the player that LeBron usually had been, not the guy against Boston last year and the Mavs this year.
So, we call that talent and potential, but that doesn't mean he's the best player. If a player with all the talent and potential in the world can't put it together when it matters most - for whatever reason - and is being outplayed by numerous others, he's not the best player. Again, he's not even the best player on his own team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hendu View Post
But they don't need a whole lot better than retreads...just younger and healthier ones who complement the team they currently have. Those players aren't going to break the bank...look at how much a player like JJ Barea was making this year. Also, if Miller and Haslem stay healthy the Heat will already be a much improved team.
Agree. Although, one of the reasons I doubt the Heat more than you are is that I don't have that faith in the front office. The closest you could come to saying that Miami's front office found a small steal, really, was Joel Anthony and he comes at a price tag of over 3+ million. I think the front office has a lot to prove, too. Young bargain players they have on the roster weren't utilized to any degree. Can they scout those types of players in the next few years the way Dallas did with Barea or Golden State, for instance, seemingly does every year? Reggie Williams (D), Monta Ellis (2nd round), Anthony Tolliver (D), etc. Furthermore, Miami has now successfully traded five first round picks + the first rounder they had from Toronto in the Marion deal plus two second round choices. In my opinion, the front office has a lot to prove as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hendu View Post
But Chris Bosh and LeBron have track records bigger than one series. Just because Dirk folded in 2006 didn't mean he would do it again in 2011. Just because D-Rose got manhandled in the series against the Heat doesn't mean that's what we can expect going forward. People forget that LeBron has had amazing playoff performances. Even in the 2011 playoffs, he took over some of those games at the end, until game 2 of the Finals.
Their track records aren't good, which is why they're catching more flack than Wade.

In 7 seasons with the Raptors, Bosh only lead his team to the playoffs twice, where they lost both times in the first round. Admittedly, he played wonderfully in the playoffs this year, except in the Finals, where collectively, he was dreadful. I'm not saying he's McGrady, but what track record are we referring to?

Lebron is under the microscope for his play not just in this year's Finals but for his complete deconstruction last year against the Celtics where he became apathetic as to the outcomes of two games, it appeared. He took himself completely out of the mix. When Dan Gilbert says he quit, well, the whole city of Cleveland agrees. When I saw it live, I couldn't believe what I saw. It was worse than what we saw this year. So track record? Very questionable.

I agree - they're going to be a power to be reckoned with, but they still have more to prove than not. I think it only gets harder for them, not easier with experience because 3 teams (Boston, Chicago and L.A.) didn't show up when it mattered and that was 3 teams that were supposed to beat Miami. If they hold serve or improve, I think Miami has to get that much better.

I miss basketball already! I'm not ready to be monogamous with baseball right now, that's for sure.
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Old 06-16-2011, 06:06 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,163 posts, read 13,204,001 times
Reputation: 2489
Sorry but this is a stupid poll. How can a team reach its potential in year 1. Obviously you learn your teammates style and go from there.
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Old 06-16-2011, 03:21 PM
 
Location: spring tx
7,912 posts, read 8,211,960 times
Reputation: 1982
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parti Rhinocéros View Post
I'm curious where everyone thinks they will have the cap room to make major player movement while at the same time keeping this core of players.

The 2010-11 Salary Cap is a soft $58.04 million, which is up from last year, but down $620,000 from two years ago. One would have to be reasonably sure that the cap will stay relatively the same for next season, while some have pushed for a hard salary cap in order to keep ballooning player salaries more in check.

While I don't believe a hard salary cap will occur, let's just say that the soft cap next year increases to $58.5 million, which is relatively generous.

This Heat team is currently over the cap by nearly $8 million dollars. The down-side, however, is that they don't have any big-money players coming off the cap.

Despite the fact that both Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem signed for below market value, they still both signed contracts past the 2014/15 season.

The issue is compounded by the fact that Mario Chalmers, who only earned $800k this season, clearly earned himself a raise - at least into the low couple of millions per season - for his play this year and will need to be resigned.

Due to player salary increases, they'll basically have the exact same payroll (roughly $8 million over the cap) MINUS the services of:

Mario Chalmers
Mike Bibby
Juwon Howard
Jamaal MaGloire
James Jones
Shavlik Randolph
Jerry Stackhouse

Admittedly, not a group of players that will wow anyone, but the retention of Chalmers is mandatory unless you're filling the gap with someone of similar talent.

So, where do they get the money from? Do you trade Mike Miller? His stock was down all season between injuries and poor shooting in part of the playoffs. Do you trade Udonis Haslem? I think clearly he's the heart of the team.

So, does the $5.8 million mid-level exception cure all ills? Do players agree to sign below market value in order to join the Heat after seeing some of the turmoil and hatred geared to them? When Miller and Haslem resigned, House and Z joined up, and Bibby accepted a mere pittance, they thought they were putting a ring on their fingers. Do other players still think the same thing now?

Long story short, UNLESS the front office makes one shrewd, shrewd pickup, I think there's a good chance they are close to their ceiling. In fact, based on the fact that as the years progress, LBJ, Wade, and Bosh will all be aging while their contracts will be getting progressively larger each year, I think there's actually a window that they need to accomplish what they need to accomplish within a couple of seasons or this thing will be blown up.

For instance, by 2015, all three players will be the only 3 players on the Miami Heat roster/salary cap and the team salary comprised of 3 players will be $8 million dollars over the salary cap alone. If they can't win it by themselves this year, they're not actually going to win it by themselves when they're in their 30s.




Vegas also had Miami being favored 3x what Dallas was favored when the series was tied 2-2 in the Finals. The line was -335. Meaning, you'd have to put $335 dollars on the Heat to win $100.

When Dallas went up 3-2, Miami was still favored by double. I took Dallas at +200 and doubled my money.

Vegas odds have absolutely no bearing on reality - they simply move lines and draw in money.

I hope that's not your rationale for why the Heat will be better next season.
partially over looked in this is the fact that resigning chalmers, and james jones will be priorities AND neither will hurt their cap room. also they will have the midlevel exception and a bi annual exception to sign free agents. while not a big free agent class, there is a bit of help out there. they only have 1 pick this draft (1st pick second round) so they will not get much help there.

i expect a coaching change before the end of next season also.
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Old 06-16-2011, 05:28 PM
 
297 posts, read 340,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
partially over looked in this is the fact that resigning chalmers, and james jones will be priorities AND neither will hurt their cap room.
Was James Jones injured or was he just benched for the entire finals? I don't recall seeing him.
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Old 06-17-2011, 11:48 AM
 
52,095 posts, read 41,911,642 times
Reputation: 32514
Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
partially over looked in this is the fact that resigning chalmers, and james jones will be priorities AND neither will hurt their cap room. also they will have the midlevel exception and a bi annual exception to sign free agents. while not a big free agent class, there is a bit of help out there. they only have 1 pick this draft (1st pick second round) so they will not get much help there.

i expect a coaching change before the end of next season also.
I'm not expecting a coaching change. The team struggled its first 20 games and then took over, getting better the rest of the season. They made it to the finals where they put up a good fight and this is in their first season with a crappy bench.

Frankly, if I were the owner of the Heat I'd be looking to free agency and a few key signings and praying to god that Dwight Howard doesn't go to one of better teams in the NBA.
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Old 06-17-2011, 04:41 PM
 
Location: spring tx
7,912 posts, read 8,211,960 times
Reputation: 1982
I just see pats ego taking over, much like 2006. I think he wanted to see how the experiment would go, and he will get a couple free agents, let Eric work them in and then step in at the slightest bit of struggle. Only if they go 65+ wins does he not step in.
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Old 06-17-2011, 07:08 PM
 
52,095 posts, read 41,911,642 times
Reputation: 32514
Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
I just see pats ego taking over, much like 2006. I think he wanted to see how the experiment would go, and he will get a couple free agents, let Eric work them in and then step in at the slightest bit of struggle. Only if they go 65+ wins does he not step in.
Pat is no kid anymore.
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